Scientist: Human civilization is locked to the earth and extinct after 5100! The accuracy rate is 95%!2018-09-24 00:25:24 142 ℃
Unprecedented climate change, rising sea levels, 1000 times the rate of species extinction in natural conditions, frequent outbreaks of food and freshwater, and increasing antibiotic resistance, The horror cloud of nuclear war and super artificial intelligence - How much time do we have? !
At the beginning of this year, the "Atomic Scientists Bulletin" of the United States re-allocated the "Doomsday Clock" to the midnight symbolizing the end of human civilization. "Only 2 minutes." The last "end of the clock" was so close to midnight or in 1953, when the United States and the Soviet Union rushed to test the hydrogen bombs, and the whole world was holding their breath.
How long will human civilization last?
The modern scientific community has a "Copernicus principle", that is, no observer has anything special. The astrophysicist Richard Gott of Princeton University in the United States first used this principle to predict the existence of everything in the world.
In 1969, Gott visited Germany's famous "Berlin Wall". At that time, the building had stood for eight years, and no one knew when it would collapse. Gott is boldly predicting that the Berlin Wall will collapse in 24 years!
Gott has explained that according to the "Copernicus Principle", he is only an ordinary visitor to the Berlin Wall. If the duration of the Berlin Wall is seen as a timeline and is divided into four segments, he is 50% likely to be in paragraphs 2 and 3, and is unlikely to be in paragraphs 1 and 4.
If Gott’s visit time is at the beginning of the second paragraph, then 8 years represents the entire Berlin Wall. A quarter of history, that is to say, the life of the Berlin Wall is 32 years.
If Gott’s visit time is at the end of the third paragraph, then 8 years represents 3/4 of the history of the building. Therefore, Gott predicted that the fall of the Berlin Wall was between 1971 and 1993. In fact, the Berlin Wall opened in 1989, just in response to Goet's prophecy!
Of course, this probabilistic-based prediction is only 50% credible. Later, Gott published the research results in the journal Nature and revised the calculation formula. According to the Copernican principle, you have a 95% probability that it is 95% of the life cycle of what you observe, at the beginning of 2.5%. And the probability of 2.5% before the end is extremely small.
According to the new theory, we can see how long human species can last. Archaeological findings show that modern humans were born 200,000 years ago. According to Gott's theory, humans will be future5,100 years to 780 Between thousands of years extinct, the accuracy rate is as high as 95%!
This forecast period seems broad, but it actually covers all the prospects of human civilization. Whether it is because of its own reasons to dig the grave, or technology leap into the era of interstellar civilization, whether human beings abandon early death, or forge ahead aggressively colonial the Milky Way, can not escape the ruling of the ultimate law of the universe!
The fossil record shows that the lifespan of mammals is about 1 million years old, and the close relatives of humans Neanderthal Within 300,000 years, it was extinct, and the erectus survived for 1.6 million years. The size of the brain and the height of wisdom are not the determining factors in determining whether a species will live longer.
Got used his "Copernicus Formula" to predict the release time of Broadway Opera in New York, 44 42 of the operas were removed during his forecast period. He also predicted the ruling time of 313 leaders in the world, and the accuracy rate reached 94%.
Gott pointed out that humans entered the space age 56 years ago. According to the Copernican principle, the space age has a 50% chance of ending within 48 years. Since 1972, no astronauts have landed on the moon, and the ambition of human beings to explore space has become increasingly depressed. Gott believes that there is not much time left for humans to achieve alien colonization. If we miss the opportunity, we are likely to face the trap of the earth and wait for the end of the demise.
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