RMB single day illness nearly 1%! Central mother just learned short, and to teach Bulls?

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RMB single day illness nearly 1%! Central mother just learned short, and to teach Bulls?

2017-09-12 21:26:31 53 ℃

Devaluation of nearly 1% in a single day, no one has become, the central mother just learned to bear short, and to teach Bulls?

NineOn 11 April, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar on the shore was "high above the sky", to close at 6.5239 yuan, down 622 basis points, nearly 1% in one-day depreciation, the biggest one-day drop since August 13, 2015.

Soaring now plunge this is lead to trouble

This year, the trend of the renminbi gave everyone a vivid lesson - "no derogatory basis.""!

From the beginning of the year and 7 Yuan passed, and last week, 6.5 yuan was easily broken, this year the RMB to actual action, maintaining the central mother that sentence "no derogatory basis" authority.

However, the "no derogatory basis" does not mean "only rise, not demote", and can not tolerate the continued depreciation of the unilateral devaluation of the central bank, will tolerate the rapid appreciation of the RMB unilateral it?

In September 11th, the RMB appeared in a single day sickness devaluation, the spot price of RMB on the shore at 16:30 to close at 6.5239 yuan, compared with the previous closing price sharply callback 622 basis points, a single day depreciation of nearly 1%. The last devaluation of the renminbi, or in 2015, "8. 11 changes" period.

On the last trading day (September 8th), on the shore, the RMB is still an unstoppable posture, the highest intraday rose to 6.4350 yuan, a record high since the end of 2015.

Hurry up after the steep decline in the background, is a series of adjustments to the central mother in the face of the recent skyrocketing RMB.

Official media confirmed that the central bank recently issued a notice that overseas RMB business to participate in the line of deposit agents in the territory of China's policy to withdraw from this date. The central bank also announced that since September 11th, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio has also been adjusted from 20% to 0.

Many market participants also noted that the central parity of RMB has been a bit out of line recently".

For example, on the morning of 11, the RMB against the U.S. dollar price increase of 35 basis points in 6.4997 yuan, hit a 16 month high, this is the middle price since August 28th eleventh consecutive days increase, the highest since early 2011 the longest winning streak, however, the RMB price increase rate is less than the market expected.

After a day of trading on the international market, the dollar index fell hit five, refresh intraday since the beginning of 2015 record low; the domestic market, the RMB against the U.S. dollar Spot Inquiry Transactions closed at 6.4617 yuan, up 355 basis points.

On the day before, the dollar continued weak situation, 11, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar was significantly lower than the previous market closing price, although it is up, but in fact showed a tendency to guide the downward trend in exchange rates.

Don't let the RMB revaluation expected excessive expansion

Lianxun securities Li Qilin said:

In August 31, 2015, the central bank issued a "silver haired [2015]273" article, proposed to the financial institutions of long-term foreign exchange business charge 20% of the foreign exchange risk reserve, freeze for one year, without interest. At that time, the background was that the RMB was in a downward trend against the US dollar, the devaluation was expected to be strong, and the enterprises were strong in holding exchanges or buying foreign exchange. The central bank issued this regulation, indirectly increased the cost of long-term purchase of foreign exchange, and help to curb the RMB short and cross-border arbitrage. But the renminbi has been appreciating this year, especially in the near future. Under such a background, the central bank lowered the reserve requirements for foreign exchange risk, its purpose is self-evident - to interrupt the continued appreciation of the RMB trend, not to revalue the RMB is expected to excessive inflation.

As the median price rise is less than expected, some foreign exchange analysts speculate that counter cyclical factors should be at work.

The two quarter of this year, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar pricing mechanism to further improve, in the original "closing price + a basket of currency exchange rate change" in the quotation model, adding "inverse cycle factor."". The central bank said that the introduction of the "inverse cyclical factor" in the intermediate quotation model can be used to correct the foreign exchange market in order to prevent the RMB exchange rate from overshooting.

There are foreign exchange market participants said:

The purpose of introducing counter cyclical factor in the two quarter is to avoid devaluation expected to "drag" the appreciation of the RMB, but now the counter cyclical factor should play a role is to "drag" the appreciation of the renminbi.

Why did mother ma do it?

The reason is clear, the renminbi is expected to be moving toward the opposite of the past few years, recently, a substantial increase in corporate settlement, superimposed bank trading disk role, leading to appreciation of the renminbi, some "out of control."".

German Commercial Bank Zhou Hao said that if the current market management is not certain, the RMB will continue to strengthen, but from a macro point of view, this does not seem entirely a good thing.

CICC pointed out that other institutions, the central bank does not intervene in the foreign exchange needs strong + = rapid appreciation of the renminbi, over a period of time, the central bank adopted a non intervention approach to the trend of the RMB exchange rate mainly lies in the appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar, but foreign exchange (the formation of the RMB on the central bank to buy foreign currency) changed little, but if the RMB appreciation too fast. May lead to regulatory concerns on the exchange rate relatively strong curb exports, will prompt the central bank to increase the intensity of intervention, such as increased purchases of foreign exchange or relax from the market before some stable RMB exchange rate is expected to take control measures.

Foreign exchange market veteran analyst Han joined forces said:

Excessive appreciation of the renminbi is not necessarily a good thing, the choice at this time gradually withdraw, began in August 2015 to strengthen the regulatory measures for foreign exchange purchases, may indicate that the continued strengthening of the RMB has caused the attention of regulatory authorities.

Lower the slope, not the direction

Back to the original question, just learned the bear and taught the bull again? Central mother "face change", do not want to see the appreciation of the renminbi?

In fact, the central bank has been described in the "counter cyclical factor" column in the monetary policy report.

The central bank said the introduction of "the trend and direction of counter cyclical factor does not change the supply and demand of foreign exchange, the foreign exchange market is the appropriate filter" herding ", not to act against the markets, but in respect of the market under the promotion of more rational market behavior. Actually, the trend and direction of the central bank decided to basically agree with the market supply and demand, on the stage of the appreciation or depreciation look more pale, but do not want to bear children to go too far, do not want too unilateral, rising trend devaluation is too intense.

What's more, the biggest backdrop for the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar this year is the weak dollar". If the dollar stays weak and the renminbi is strong against the dollar, it could still be a big probability event.

After falling from 103 to 91, the space for the dollar index to continue to decline may be narrowing, and it is not appropriate to continue to substantially reduce the value of the dollar and see more of the euro. But the Fed's interest rate hike in September very few probability, and even in December the probability of interest rates have also dropped significantly, the dollar to restore the strong, how difficult?. Moreover, the RMB exchange rate is expected to have significant changes. It is unlikely that the one or two policy will reverse expectations.

During the year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar may remain relatively strong, but the gains may be slowing down, two-way fluctuations may increase, while the annual appreciation is That's final. recovery.

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