Plot reversal! RMB plunged 1000 points, the truth exposed2017-09-12 22:04:11 106 ℃
Text / white reading Finance (ID:veekn365)
The RMB fell 1000 points over the previous way to go forward with great strength and vigour of the rally!
On Monday, the offshore renminbi fell to a minimum of 6.5335, or nearly 1000 points from its peak last Friday;Onshore yuan also fell more than 875 points from Friday's peak, at 15:27 to close at 6.5220.
From the beginning of May, the RMB exchange rate continue to rise, the offshore renminbi rose to the highest price of $6.4425, a 22 month high, just 3 months, the cumulative appreciation rate reached 6%, give people a head-on blow bearish rmb!
Earlier, the continuous appreciation of RMB is certainly not far from out of nowhere, perhaps, this is based on the market optimistic expectations for the Chinese economy, the first half of China GDP growth rate of 6.9%, higher than last year's 6.7%, originally thought that the real estate after cooling, GDP will decline, did not fall up really a surprise.
From a near point of view, the United States announced a "301 survey" to China in order to reverse the unfavorable situation in trade with china. Under this background, the central bank raised the RMB exchange rate, the exchange rate can be used to reduce leverage commodity exports to the United States, to prevent a handle.
But regulators are increasingly aware that a temporary appreciation can penalize short positions and prevent capital outflows.However, if the appreciation is too fast, it will make more and more export enterprises unable to eat.For example, at the beginning of August RMB exchange rate appreciation is 1:6.7, at the end of August to 1:6.5, a business in the overseas will be $100 million in profits remitted back to China, because of the appreciation of the RMB lost without any cause or reason: 100 million x (6.7 - 6.5) = 20 million yuan, loss of profits as high as 2.985%, if unchecked, then the consequences be unbearable to contemplate.
So in September 9th, the central bank finally shot!
According to media reports,The central bank has issued a document, decided to cut from September 11th onwards forward foreign exchange risk reserve for foreign exchange reserves, the reserve rate level of 20%, down to zero.
What is the reserve for foreign exchange risk? In fact, white in the earlier articles have been introduced, and now the concept of this scene a little:
A companies in China agreed to pay $10 million worth of raw material orders to B companies in the United States after 3 months, and A companies are worried about the devaluation of the renminbi 3 months later, resulting in exchange losses. So it is a foreign exchange and C Bank signed a long-term contract, 3 months after the agreed A 1:6.5 companies to purchase price of $3 a month, even after the devaluation of the renminbi, but A enterprises still enjoy the 1:6.5 swap price, payment of RMB 65 million yuan is A.
The central bank then asked commercial banks to pay 20% of their contracts to the central bank's designated accounts for each forward sale. That is to say, if the amount of the contract is 65 million, the required reserve shall be = 65 million * 20% = 13 million RMB, and be returned in 1 years.
As a result of commercial bank operating costs increase, in order not to silence the final result is transferred to the A enterprises, such as our original agreement 1:6.5 is 3 months after the contract price, the central bank's new regulations after I put the price increased to 1:6.6, the result is that A enterprises only 65 million yuan can exchange the original $10 million, now increased to 66 million yuan.
That is, increasing the transaction costs of A enterprises, which in fact is similar to the increase in stamp duty in the stock market transactions, speculative speculation, fast forward, fast out of the atmosphere will be curbed, the RMB market is the same.
The renminbi adopts the direct price method, which represents devaluation and represents downward appreciation.
The risk reserve for forward foreign exchange buying was introduced in about 9-10 months of 2015, when the background was the period of rapid devaluation of the RMB, and the central bank introduced the reserve system in a way that could be interpreted as a product of foreign exchange management. Today, the central bank will reduce reserves to zero, can be interpreted as the devaluation of foreign exchange management measures gradually withdraw.
This gave us two signals:One is the exchange rate management has achieved positive effect, reversed the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to two; while there is the trend of the RMB devaluation, but the central bank also do not want to rise quickly because of unfavorable for import and export.
In fact, the white believes that the central bank's approach is right, the foreign exchange risk reserve will be reduced to 0, you can prevent the RMB rally excessive overheating, avoid bubbles bigger and bigger. If the renminbi is overvalued, it is beyond the support of the economic fundamentals,The final result is only two: one is the devaluation of the RMB channel; two, in order to maintain the overvalued renminbi, the central bank needs to raise the domestic interest rate level.
At second, how should I understand? To put it plainly, the interest rate is directly proportional to the exchange rate. When the other conditions are not supported, the exchange rate rises and the interest rate rises.
For instance：A's one-year deposit rate is 3%, the B rate is 4% and the other factor in the same circumstances, the funds for the purpose to pursue profit from the B in A in the flow, the result is to sell the currency to buy B A, currency A, currency devaluation, B bank appreciation.
Visible, a higher interest rates, although the exchange rate can be overestimated, but for the stock market, the property market, the sharp rise in interest rates means that prices pressure, which is a big bad.
Therefore, to avoid the RMB rose too fast, in fact, to avoid rising interest rates too fast, white believes that the tightening of interest rates is necessary, but it should be slow, rhythmic process, not step in place.
In short, for the RMB exchange rate, white think that taking into account the early rise has been too high, coupled with the central bank's shot, continue to rise in space is not large, the future stable based.
For the US dollar, the current US dollar has become quite cheap since the early Yuan appreciated sharply against the dollar. If there is any demand for future travel or study abroad, it will be better or better now.
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