Changsha house prices down by 50%! Pull prices everywhere, what are the weapons of mad cow?2017-09-18 09:39:16 374 ℃
China Economic Weekly micro signal: ChinaEconomicWeekly
China Economic Weekly official website: economic network www.ceweekly.cn
"Chinese Economic Weekly" reporter Li Yonghua reported | Changsha
Commissioning editor: Chen Weishan
See the mobile phone screen half awaken, jump out of news, "Changsha prices fell 50%!" Suddenly wake up laughing, then hard pinch thigh, rubbed his eyes and looked carefully, this is true.
In September 12th, Changsha market release strokes. According to Xinhua News Agency reported that the Changsha municipal government launched the "directional limit commodity housing", the first batch of 20 projects, a total of 11682 sets of construction, the second batch of construction plans are being developed. In the first project, Xinqiao District Furong district Changsha three phase of the project will have 1208 sets of housing, the sale price is only 4950 yuan per square meter, some research, the price is less than half of the surrounding lots of second-hand housing prices, "Changsha prices fell 50%" from it.
And just the day before, that is September 11th, the "China Economic Weekly" has just published the "Changsha property market: New Deal activated?" "One article, reported Changsha prices in recent years skyrocketing, the purchase index pushed up to 100 thousand yuan and irrational phenomena. Once the article was published, the day on the network caused a great deal of attention and hot discussion.
12, the property market news, it can be said that in the face of rising housing prices, Changsha this year's latest property market control measures.
In fact, not just Changsha, mayors from all over the country are busy curbing the housing bubble.
What weapons are there in the pockets of the mayor?
Can you give up the addiction to land finance?"
Changsha launched directional limit commodity housing prices why so low?
Look at the official explanation. Changsha City Housing Security Service Bureau of the person in charge of the construction unit, construction land allocated by the administrative orientation of commodity housing, in the sale of commercial housing, the construction unit of the unified payment of land leasing, land premium, the equivalent of the government land premium profit to the people, the land of the construction unit cost is lower, so the cost of housing also lower; construction units to recruit transfer oriented commodity housing construction project auction made, free city infrastructure supporting a variety of administrative fees and government funds, service charges levied by the same government profit to the people, so prices lower.
In the reporter's view, this explanation directly to the past high prices of our "Puzzle" to unlock.
Beginning in December 1, 1987, Shenzhen imitated Hongkong, the first land auction in the mainland, 3 pieces of land sold 23 million 360 thousand yuan. Since then, Pandora's box was opened, the Hongkong real estate model officially landed in the mainland, around trying to response, follow suit, land become the most important local government revenue sources, to meet the funding needs of city construction around the huge.
However, the local government land finance will be tied up in real estate the animal body, running all the way, seeing the real estate bubble blowing more, but can not stop.
A group of data of National Development Research Institute of Peking University professor Zhou Qiren cited earlier this year showed land finance ferocious: from 1995 to 2012, China's nominal GDP growth of 8.6 times, 8.8 times the total wage growth, revenue growth of 16.7 times, government revenue increased 18.8 fold, 64 fold increase in land leasing.
As a model of "the first person", Hongkong has the highest prices in global sit on the location of the city, the first half of this year, real estate prices rose 9.3%, it is said that a parking lot had sold 5 million 180 thousand Hong Kong dollars price.
Analysis of high real estate prices, the continued rise in land prices is undoubtedly an important promoter of high housing prices. The National Association of industry and commerce real estate chamber of Commerce report shows that the real estate development enterprise land costs accounted for 41.2% of the total cost, accounting for the proportion of direct costs amounted to 58.2%.
In July 24th this year, the real estate industry sources said, from the supply of land, the land supply system has become a factor in prices continued to rise. After a special report for two years, high land prices, land prices will also push up prices, prices can not be in the case of land prices rose sharply down.
How can bread be cheaper if the flour is not reduced? The problem is, the local government has no zhuangshiduanwan commitment to reform, get rid of the land finance?
Changsha municipal government in charge of real estate, a leader of the "China Economic Weekly" reporter said that Changsha has shown signs of land financial dependence declined, the future will increase the supply of affordable housing land.
During his tenure as mayor of Chongqing, prices in Chongqing remained low, indicating that local governments could not jump from the price of mad Huang Qifan. Huang Qifan said that one of the important measures to maintain the stability of the property market is that the annual total investment of real estate should not exceed 25% of the total fixed assets investment of the whole society. According to his explanation, more than 25% must be over supply, less than 25%, and insufficient supply, not suited to urbanization. If a local infrastructure investment, the real estate accounted for seventy or eighty of the long-term look, there is no stamina.
Shanghai mayor Ying Yong said, must not be high land prices, high housing prices in exchange for temporary economic growth and financial growth.
And let the local government can not get the land transfer income of all types of affordable housing, can stabilize prices, the key lies in whether it can continue to supply in large quantities, if you can do, it is bound to pull down high prices.
In this regard, the above Changsha city leaders did not give a clear answer, saying only that Changsha will continue to increase the supply of affordable housing land.
Changsha Housing Authority Office of a staff member told reporters that the affordable housing now can not apply, at least until next year, is currently only publicity phase, there is no detailed rules.
Increase the amount of land available for the necessary option
It was a pipe dream to turn around and return to the land in full allotment. Relative to the huge supply of real estate market, affordable housing program can be said to be far from hydrolysis, not nearly thirsty.
At present, under the land supply system, the local government is the only land seller in the residential market. The selling price, the selling price and the selling price are basically the local governments. Judging by the public statements of mayors everywhere, increasing land supply is a must in the policy basket. September 9th, Beijing mayor Chen Jining stressed that the next 5 years to implement the 1 million 500 thousand sets of residential land supply plan.
From the effect of view, as long as the real plan for the implementation of the plan, and supporting other regulatory measures, prices will almost certainly fall.
2016, Anhui Hefei housing prices skyrocketing, "can not find the vice mayor can not buy the house."". But greatly changed this year, according to the "Chinese Economic Weekly" reported earlier last year, the highest in October Binhu second-hand housing price per square meter from 23 thousand to 24 thousand yuan, an average of 20 thousand to 21 thousand yuan, the average price per square meter 16 thousand ~ 17 thousand yuan, the price dropped to 13 thousand yuan. Behind the decline in housing prices, Hefei land market "open the granaries". Preliminary estimates, Hefei this year, the supply of land will reach 12064.831 acres, about 8 million square meters.
Changsha offers another observation sample from the price depression to the vanguard.
Over the past decade, East extension westward Changsha City, southward expansion of the north, land supply continues to expand, peaking in 2013, 7 million 270 thousand square meters of land for business, higher than most of the capital city. Housing letter data show that the Changsha residential market supply and demand than in 2013, 2014 were 1.3, 1.5, to the end of 2014 to inventory cycle for 24 months. Oversupply pattern, Changsha prices have been suppressed, the main urban area of nearly 10 years stable at 6000 yuan per square meter below, is a famous price depression.
In 2015, the supply and demand ratio of Changsha's residential market dropped to 0.92016, further down to 0.7. The market situation has changed completely into short supply, and the supply of land has decreased sharply, which has worsened the situation. "Chinese Economic Weekly" reported earlier, Changsha residential land supply in 2015 is only 1 million 890 thousand square meters, 3 million 320 thousand square meters in 2016, 2017 Changsha plans to supply 3 million 250 thousand square metres of residential land, but at the end of August, Changsha land only completed 16.3% of the plan.
This is undoubtedly a revolutionary impact on the current land system, opening up a new channel for increasing land supply. Shenzhen, a city planner told reporters that the rapid expansion of the city of Shenzhen, the city in the name of a lot of land, and if a large number of market, may be able to curb prices. He is even more looking forward to, collective land not only to enter the rental market, but with state-owned land as direct access to the market, "that will be the real estate market black swan."."
Under the ruthless hands, curb the fried tenants
The mayors a tube seller, another tube buyer. In the supply side, a large number of building affordable housing, to ensure that just need; increase land supply, the opening of water, will undoubtedly stabilize the property market. In the demand side, the implementation of the Central Committee of the "house is used to live, not for speculation", "cut real" chain, to prevent rising prices, "self fulfilling expectations" can not relax.
"China Economic Weekly" reporter learned that, by the end of 2016, Huang Qifan from Chongqing to Beijing after the news, Wenzhou real mission, Shanghai real mission has collectively rushed to the city.
Earlier, the "China Economic Weekly" had in-depth reports of real mission in Hefei mode of operation, exposing the real estate group is one of the prime culprit in Hefei's rapid rise in housing prices.
In the first half of this year, real estate group and eyeing Changsha. A real estate group claimed that every new Changsha can not let go, get Changsha market jittery. Preceding Changsha city leaders also believe that the rise is expected, from just need the crowd to stir up the collective tenants, causing big congestion, Changsha housing prices is an important reason for the rise.
A senior real estate observers told reporters, many city has now entered the purchase of credit limit, limit, limit the sale of the business, the "five limit" era, cut off the chain of real estate is not difficult, the key is to look at the implementation of local government efforts.
"All the way to go, mortgage do not block the door, the provident fund to move the small yellow car."!" This chain of disdain alone is enough to kill most of the tenants on the beach. In Hefei, China Economic Weekly reporter learned that some of the secondary housing fell by 40% is the main reason for speculation tenants are locked up after the rush.
Is that real estate developers, property hoarding can also push up prices. This year, because prices limit, many developers are reluctant to reach the pre-sale conditions of the house to the market, in order to play the game with the government. If the government ordered the project schedule to meet pre-sale conditions listed in the project, thorough investigation of property hoarding behavior, also can quickly ease the supply shortage. Cities such as Wuhan, Hefei and Nanjing have already done so.
However, there are also ruthless. Many media reports, in June this year, Poly Real Estate Tianxi bundled decoration, Changsha city housing and Urban Construction Bureau of administrative law enforcement has been determined to bind consumption, in his house alleged violation, but said not.
The real estate bubble, the gray rhino is getting closer and nearer, ferocious housing prices far beyond the capacity of ordinary people. Even HUAWEI founder Ren Zhengfei last year can not help Tucao: HUAWEI employees can not afford to buy a house in Shenzhen, and HUAWEI employees high income, the earth people know".
Ren Zhengfei also dished out that "high land prices, high housing prices, resulting in a sharp rise in cost of factors of production, will inevitably lead to the decline of competitiveness of Chinese enterprises" argument. "People's Daily" also issued a document pointed out that people are not willing to do the industry, think "what is real", which is not conducive to the real economy upgrade and innovation, but also distorts the social values and the concept of wealth, the long run, the overall China's future competitiveness will bring great negative influence the.
In line with the national conditions, and to adapt to the long-term mechanism of basic system of the law of the market is gradually established, around the real estate regulation Henzhao frequent strokes. We call for the storm of regulation to be more violent.
(Shangguan also contributed to this article.)
Onlookers "activation" of the Changsha property market
Changsha house prices rose because it was undervalued?
@ week Shuai 823: Changsha, Yueyang, housing prices and wages, the overall price is low, so as long as you make investment, you will earn later. Lenovo headquarters is to see this point, the future will move to Yueyang city.
@a222c: now Changsha government does not allow developers to control price of net signed, the price of real estate, so instead of selling second-hand housing more expensive. Recently the world scenic rival opened, 180 houses, 600 people came yaohao. Why has Changsha been rising recently? Because a few years ago we are bearish, Changsha prices did not how to rise, now a rose, you regret to berserk.
Medical ethics is mainly: @ paste Changsha too cheap, the new opening is 7000 ~ 9000 yuan, and Nanchang million, Wuhan more than 20000, North City deep close to 80 thousand ~ 100 thousand yuan. Changsha subway planning also has 18 lines, have good educational resources, medical resources, high Tiehu Kunming line and Beijing intersection line, the capital city of the next 3 to 5 years the average price rose to 20 thousand yuan is also normal.
@192512321: Changsha price base is too low, the capital city of the last third, prices rose slightly, will be loud! Beijing to sell a suite in Changsha can buy more than 10 suites.
Is Changsha property worth investing?
2012 things: Changsha @ second-hand housing or vacant housing a large innumerable, rough, full of speculators in the investment, generally 30% lower than the surrounding a building, three years rose 2000 yuan / square meters, there is no investment value. Many good schools are private, the real school district housing is not much, the unit from building more, and simply do not sell at any price.
@ attitude netizen 070Wxy: do not use old eyes to see Changsha. 1., high consumption, everyone has money to spend. 2. Yue Xiu more road are increasingly blocking, because more and more cars. 3., now the subway 1, 2, two lines, rush hour, crowded subway, now 3, 4, 5 and 6 subway line is under repair. 4., Changsha has no industry? Xingsha county is a national top ten industrial county. 5. Hexi is a ghost town, no one live? Are you going to see if there's a traffic jam on the road? A few years ago, Changsha prices are low, not because we have no money in hand, we all think Changsha housing prices low, no investment value. You now go to the sales department to see, the money can not buy housing, which property is not Yaohao, seconds light.
The up regulation of the property market?
@ wind up the end of the green: property taxes are no mention, everyone numb?
"Kyushu saint" its: the property market so fire, local governments, developers why not provide new houses on the scale?
@qqffll: don't just push the demand side, but solve the supply side problem.
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