Shi Hanbing: freeze super liquidity changes in the property market

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Shi Hanbing: freeze super liquidity changes in the property market

2017-09-28 18:52:49 155 ℃

However, this year's prime time, the property market ushered in the ice age. Beijing and other cities continue to move more substantial interest rates, of which the first mortgage interest rate increased by 5%-10% compared to the benchmark interest rate, this is the sixth time this year, Beijing adjusted mortgage interest rates. In from September 22nd to 23rd, within 2 days, 8 cities in China concentrated on the property market control measures, Xi'an, Chongqing, Nanchang, Nanning, Changsha, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang, Wuhan and 8 cities, 6 cities in the implementation of the restriction.

Among them, Shijiazhuang stipulates: "from the date of spontaneous purchase of new housing (including new commodity housing and second-hand housing), five years may not be traded."". This is a direct freeze on "liquidity" measures. This measure is extremely severe.

Many people real estate, because of an important reason: property has liquidity, can be realized according to their wishes. Once the freezing of liquidity, even in a certain period of freezing, but also means that the liquidity of property is suppressed, which in fact has drawn an important reliance on real estate.

The key is that a large number of property have been stocked, waiting for the realization of the people, will be "freeze policy" locked. The resulting effect is very large.

First, due to the liquidity freeze, the fluctuation range of prices were artificially locked, it is very important for the bank - 6 at the end of 2017, the RMB real estate loans 29 trillion and 720 billion yuan, if prices fell sharply, resulting in the value of the collateral has shrunk, so, damaging the interests of the banks, and even a threat to the financial security, China. andFreezing property market liquidity is tantamount to letting buyers in the high "contracting" risk, as the Republic's financial guards.

Second, to freeze the liquidity of real estate, as for the local government, the liquidation has been completed Cash - whether land sales or various tax revenues, have full storage, frozen this part has "liquidity profit", the new house only to buy a room, so as to continue to help the local government to sell realizable income and income taxes, a virtuous cycle. For local governments, it's a matter of making nothing.

Third,China's real estate regulation and control, and often failed to curb the effect of prices, the key is the lack of interest to bear the loss of housing prices,Eventually, real property buyers are forced to pay the bills again and again. Freeze the liquidity, first began to take real sacrifice, the property only rise myth has ended.

Fourth, on September 20th, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen announced that it would reduce its trillion dollar balance sheet (abbreviated as abbreviated form) from October. After the contraction, global capital accelerated back to the United States and posed a new threat to China's foreign exchange reserves. In this case, the freezing of property market liquidity, making considerable funds can not be fulfilled, but also unable to exchange foreign exchange. Therefore,We see that in September 20th, the Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen announced the reduced form, September 22nd, China began to freeze the liquidity is like a raging fire out of control measures to.

Looking back on history, in the past, when the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, is the global capital intensive return to the United States, but also related economies when the crisis was detonated. Despite the continuous appreciation of the renminbi in the past period, the capital outflow has never stopped. In September 18th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced in August the banking exchange data, bank settlement 942 billion 200 million yuan (equivalent to $141 billion 200 million), sales of 967 billion 700 million yuan (equivalent to 145 billion U.S. dollars), foreign exchange deficit 25 billion 600 million yuan (equivalent to $3 billion 800 million). At the same time, at the end of 8, the central bank balance of foreign exchange balance of 21 trillion and 510 billion yuan, twenty-second consecutive months of decline. This shows,In some people began to shake the active exemplary conduct and nobility of character is one of the few dollars out in exchange for their favorite RMB, there are still some people in a large number of foreign exchange opportunity,Thus, the foreign exchange settlement and sale deficit of 25 billion 600 million yuan.

In September 21st, the international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's China sovereign credit rating from AA down to A +, the S & P to China's downgrade, is the main basis for the "long time strong credit growth, increased economic China financial risk". A financial century war is rapidly coming, and at this time, freezing the property market liquidity is equal to the real capital of the building of an invisible financial firewall.

Thinking question:Under the new market situation, will house prices drop? Where will the hot money flow after the real estate transaction is frozen?