Guizhou Moutai jumped 600 yuan mark, remember Dan Bin's one hundred million bet?

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Guizhou Moutai jumped 600 yuan mark, remember Dan Bin's one hundred million bet?

2017-10-27 10:09:14 271 ℃

Introduction

In October 26th, Guizhou Moutai opened a high opening of nearly 7%, a strong breakthrough of 600 yuan mark, a new record high, the market value reached 760 billion yuan. Moutai's stock price broke through $600, and investors were reminded of Dan Bin's one hundred million bet".

In October 26th, Guizhou Moutai opened a high opening of nearly 7%, a strong breakthrough of 600 yuan mark, a new record high, the market value reached 760 billion yuan.

High open higher because Moutai Guizhou disclosed three quarterly reports yesterday, Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters net profit of 19 billion 984 million yuan,An increase of 60.3%Among them, the third quarter net profit of 8 billion 730 million yuan,An increase of 138.4%.

The reason for the increase in revenue, Guizhou Moutai said, mainly due to the increase in sales this period.

The securities industry observation (ID:quanyeguancha) access Kweichow Moutai three quarterly data show that Moutai liquor sales revenue of 38 billion 404 million yuan during the reporting period, liquor revenue of 4 billion 18 million yuan; in accordance with the sales channels, sales revenue of 4 billion 3 million yuan, wholesale revenue 38 billion 419 million yuan; according to the region, domestic sales 40 billion 994 million yuan, abroad only 1 billion 428 million yuan.

It is worth mentioning that, Guizhou Moutai sales expenses increased by 201.92% during the reporting period, sales costs of 1 billion 977 million yuan. The reason for the increased cost of sales, Kweichow Moutai said this is the main period of the company to promote the "133" brand strategy and Maotai wine series "5+5" marketing strategy, increase market investment.

From the above data can be seen, Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters of this year growth is behind the market sales unpopular, this point from the company's dealer number changes also confirmed the fact that Moutai sell well.

Dan Bin's one hundred million bet

Moutai's stock price broke through $600, and investors were reminded of Dan Bin's one hundred million bet".

In May 21, 2017, the general manager of Shanghai Jun Di asset management center Liang Ruian for that bearish investors in Moutai, said that by the end of 2018 if Moutai shares less than 600 yuan \/ share, donate to charity 500 thousand.

Subsequently, Dan Bin, chairman of Shenzhen Eastern Harbour investment management Limited by Share Ltd, responded strongly to micro-blog and supported Liang Ruian.

Dan Bin said in micro-blog, unless China's liquor culture decline, as long as the Chishui river water is still flowing, otherwise you wait one thousand years, ten thousand years also can not see the time of the Moutai crash! Moutai, even after a period of rapid growth, at least like coke, Te A Jill, or, like "high level bonds", attracts long-term investors.

So this morning, with the Moutai breakthrough 600 yuan pass, many media call to interview Dan Bin himself.

To this end, he made a public response in the circle of friends, Dan Bin said, I hope the media friends don't hype one hundred million gambling "thing, because at that time the two professors did not" Chinese ", Dan Bin said that" Moutai released rhetoric is on only $50 worth of claims that anger, excessive reaction. This has become the past, hope to have different opinions, the data speak, rational discussion!

Can you continue to buy, buy, buy?

Now Moutai has exceeded 600 yuan, but also can not continue to buy, buy, buy? The following is the comment on Guizhou Moutai by major brokerages:

[CITIC Securities: Guizhou Moutai expects shipments in the fourth quarter of 7000 tons]

Kweichow Moutai originally expected 2017 put Moutai 26 thousand and 800 tons of wine, in the August 28th meeting of the modest increase in 2018 the market plan, and at the end of the year will timely advance the implementation plan next year on the market, in order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, based on this, is expected in the fourth quarter shipments of approximately 7000 tons, assuming tons price unchanged, series of wine schedule unchanged, annual revenue growth of 42%. Assuming there is still 10%-15% incremental space next year, based on the assumption that the price increase of 20% in mid year and product structure upgrade, it is estimated that revenue will increase by about 25% next year.

[Founder Securities: explosion of demand for performance Fundamentals

The potential demand continued to erupt, firmly optimistic about the future growth of space: the past two years, mass consumption upgrade is the core reason for Moutai return to high growth, that the demand side burst potential will continue upward, it will become a solid foundation for the future trend of the liquor industry fundamentals. In the end of 16 the market puts forward "17 years will be the development of Moutai new year performance, there will be more than 30% growth, but for now, still very conservative, Moutai in the" large volume "still shows great flexibility, the elephant can also dance! As the ultimate goal of liquor industry consumption upgrade, continue to firmly optimistic about the future development of the company space!

Shen Yuan Hong: Guizhou Moutai's performance is expected to raise the target price to 750 yuan

Up earnings forecast, forecast 17-19 years EPS is 20.09, 26.18, 33.08 yuan, an increase of 50%, 30%, 26%, up to one year target price to 750 yuan, 18 years of reasonable valuation interval 25-30x, maintain buy. Looking forward to next year, we believe that the income growth of Moutai wine will be mainly based on quantity, switch to the volume and price rise, coupled with the steady growth of series of liquor, 18 years of revenue and profits will continue to maintain high growth.

[northeast evaluation of Moutai: sudden increase from Q3 pre payment, drop delivery once 180 tons]

Two key factors to report than expected: 1) Moutai liquor shipments increased significantly; 2) the company according to the actual amount of delivery confirmation income, and no longer be included in pre collection: Q3 revenue of 18 billion 993 million yuan, with the increase of 115.88%; owned by the parent net profit of 8 billion 733 million yuan, with the increase of 138.41%. There are two main reasons than expected, one is to increase shipments of Q3 company, adjusting product structure, an increase of 53 degrees Moutai wine production, once daily shipments increased from 80 tons to 180 tons; the mid autumn day during the double 53 degrees Moutai liquor shipments of 5600 tons, Q3 total shipments estimated at 7500 tons of left and right compared with the same period last year, an increase of more than 40%. The second is the company in accordance with the actual delivery amount of income was confirmed, Q3 pre payment 17 billion 472 million yuan, compared with the Q2 fell 386 million yuan; over the same period last year is a considerable part of the delivery amount was included in the pre payment of income is not confirmed, the pre payment increase of 5 billion 912 million yuan over the same period last year. In the first three quarters of, the actual delivery volume of Moutai wine has reached about 23 thousand tons, and this year's shipments are expected to exceed 30 thousand tons; according to Moutai wine 50 billion yuan, series liquor 5 billion yuan calculation, the annual revenue is expected to reach 55 billion yuan. Earnings forecasts and investment rating: up to 2017-2019 years, the company EPS to 18.82, 24.14, 29.25 yuan, corresponding to PE30 times, 23 times, 19 times, maintain the "buy" rating.

[Zhongtai Securities: compound growth rate of more than 20% over the next 2-3 years]

In the medium and long term, the overall supply of Moutai wine is tight, and the compound growth rate of the company revenue in the next 2-3 years can reach more than 20%. For the supply and demand pattern Moutai liquor in the future, we believe that each of the next three years can be added to Moutai liquor more than 3000 tons (compound annual growth rate of approximately 10%), according to the current trend of consumption upgrade and channel low inventory levels, we judge that Moutai has entered the restocking cycle, 2019 Moutai liquor supply overall tight, established long-term upward price trend. Only through price increases to achieve equilibrium price. Considering the smoothness of the price upward, we expect that the company's revenue will continue to grow by more than 20% in the next 2-3 years. Raise the target price to 677.16 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating.

[Ping An Securities comment on Guizhou Moutai: high growth on schedule and 2018 emboldened enough]

18 years report emboldened enough to maintain "strongly recommended"". 17 year report on schedule growth, repair to normal level. Looking forward to 18 years, the company has the ability to choose the price or volume, plus pre payment reserve, the company has the ability to ensure that statements revenue, net profit increased by 20-30%, emboldened enough. Consider 3Q17 over expected, up to 17-18 years EPS forecast 9%, 6% to 19.67, 24.85 yuan, +47.8%, 26.3%, dynamic PE is 28.8, 22.8 times. Moutai report & business base is solid, although the market performance expectations have gradually returned to normal, but 18 years of revenue, net profit is still expected to grow rapidly, the stock price is expected to continue to top, maintain a "strongly recommended" rating.

Huatai Securities: the price increase of major products will significantly increase the performance elasticity of Guizhou Moutai

After the company increased shipments and pressure test of prohibition brought about by the introduction of a stable price, make the Moutai company to market demand to further enhance confidence. Shipments in the three quarter increased and the prohibition has not been substantial impact on price, passed the pressure test. "Moutai cloud business" on the one hand, increased the price of Moutai terminal consumer oriented transparency, on the other hand, strengthened the company's ability to control the terminal price of products. At the end of 17 and the beginning of 18, the window period of Moutai's product price will be opened, and the price increase of major products will significantly increase the performance elasticity of Guizhou Moutai. Maintain buy rating, raise target price range to 676.25-730.35 yuan.

[gold comment Moutai: high-end wine materials will welcome explosive growth target price of 845 yuan]

The three quarter results sharply than expected, mainly due to the three quarter revenue increased 116%, the three quarter Moutai liquor supply increased substantially to 11000 tons, the high-end liquor market leading brands such as Moutai will usher in the explosive growth, especially 1500-15000 yuan light luxury consumer type of high-end wine, including Moutai, Moutai and other Zodiac vintage wine. The high-end liquor consumption potential has just opened, is expected to 2018-2020 three years flying Moutai ex factory price increase was 22%\/15%\/15%, at the same time by increasing shipments to control retail prices too fast, Moutai continues to sink channels, expand to Chinese 345 lines of the city and the Internet, directly to consumers. Maintain the recommended rating, raise the target price of 22.11% to 845 yuan rmb.