Foreign media: the first blow of the dollar against the US dollar oil system is about to collapse2017-12-26 09:32:35 170 ℃
news pictures $
in the global financial system may not always stand firm. Like anything, there's always a time to end. In this paper,
compiled from zero hedge website, the following is the text
the only problem, as hedge fund analyst MacroVoices hedge fund manager Eric Townsend (Erik Townsend) said, we are in the second half of the game -- the dollar as the global reserve currency structure will be maintained for one hundred years, and has been close to the final game everything will fall apart, or between the two? In an interview with
Alhambra Partners chief information officer Jeffrey - Snyder (Jeffrey Snider), Forest for the Trees founder Luke (Luke Gromen), gro Mongolia and Morgan Creek founder and fund manager Mark CISCO (Mark Yusko) - especially in the process of Eric Townsend on the issue were discussed in detail.
for many people, to the dollar's reserve currency status decline is hard to imagine, but the first strike against the oil dollar system have been issued: Venezuela refused to use the dollar trading oil, has been to the world that replace the petro dollar system alternative is possible. In addition, Latin America has begun to publish the price index of the crude oil in Renminbi. We also report that Russia, Venezuela and Iran are unable to accumulate dollar reserves because of sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department. They are considering launching an encrypted currency backed by oil.
Eric - Townsend's interview begins with Luke gronmont. He pointed out that, in violation of common sense, the dollar began to appreciate rapidly in the third quarter of 2014, just as the US dollar accounted for a period of decline in Global trade settlement. Luke grosmont predicts that this trend will continue to benefit the dollar until the day of failure.
Forest for the Trees founder Luke grosmont said, "I might say that it has entered the second half of the game. It should be the latter 1/3, maybe the eighth game. The reason I say that is given to the European and American dollars ($in circulation is homogeneous and has the same liquidity and purchasing power, which is different from the United States dollar European financial institutions supervision, not by the Federal Reserve Bank of the relevant regulations, the interest rate structure constraint. The structure of the dollar deposits which are stored outside the United States, mainly in European and American banks, European branches, or dollars borrowed from these banks. In the early days of
, if any country or main political party wanted to abandon the use of US dollar for any reason, such a move away from the US dollar would push the US dollar strong and ironic. Therefore, the funny thing is to accelerate the abandonment of US dollars in Global trade. In the long run, it is not conducive to the status of the US dollar, but in the short term, it can make the dollar flourish.
so when we look back on the past, we will think that from the third quarter of 2014, you begin to notice that the proportion of trading in US dollars in international trade has been significantly reduced, especially the Sino Russian energy trade. Therefore, we believe that the situation began to develop rapidly from the third quarter of 2014, as has been mentioned, the process of abandoning the dollar, or the loss of the share of US dollar in the trade settlement, is a great benefit to the US dollar, until the day when the magic fails.
, however, Luke grosmont believes that when the share of US dollar in trade settlement began to decline rapidly in the third quarter of 2016, a significant change took place. At this point, the value of the appreciation of the dollar from 2014 to 2015 has been released to a certain extent. Moreover, Luke grosmont speculated that the dollar would devalue because the devaluation was in line with the national security interests of the United States.
Luke grosmont said, "the movie script that has failed in magic has been on for more than a year since the third quarter of 2016. The reason for this is that the US dollar has been rising and the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) has increased continuously from the third quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2016, while the traditional US dollar strength cycle is also emerging.
but now on the market of international trade almost all the participants, things become less traditional is that from the beginning of the 2016 third quarter, rising dollar LIBOR rates rise, leading to the United States tax dropped year by year, the U.S. fiscal deficit relative to the increase in the proportion of GDP. And these are what happened before the major crisis. This is the first time that before the emergence of a major emerging market crisis in the United States, tax revenues were declining, and the dollar tightening cycle in the post Bretton Woods system.
so when you put the needs and the reality into consideration, namely: in the context of the appreciation of the infinite dollar assets in order to guarantee the tax revenue increase, which will become the effective measures to ensure the necessary dollar dominated the financial system; you will find from the beginning of the third quarter of 2016, the second half we started to enter the game. Not only do foreign creditors want to get rid of the US dollar in international trade for some reasons, but also the weakening of the US dollar has become the US government's consideration of national security.
then Eric Townsend interviewed Jeffrey - Snyder, the chief information officer of Alhambra investments. He explained how the European dollar system hurt emerging market economies and eventually weakened global finance during each austerity.
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