Big short head Goldman Sachs come again? Because of trade, US stocks fell 25%, and the market value evaporated by 6 trillion US dollars!2018-09-14 00:25:13 11 ℃
Summary: What if Trump adds taxes to all goods? Goldman Sachs: US stock market value evaporated by 6 trillion US dollars!
How does the US tax increase affect the stock market?
[一牛财经] Just three months ago, most Wall Street analysts predicted that Trump’s trade war threatened perhaps only from the tone of the unorthodox president, while a few others imitated the “worst case scenario”. For example, Barclays Bank expects that even if the US imposes a 10% tax on all imports and exports, the overall impact on the US stock market is limited.
However, the situation has changed dramatically! Because with the US impending a new round of taxes on China’s $200 billion imports, Wall Street predicts that the trade war with China may be more serious than imagined: after all, as the US economy temporarily thrives, plus Huge corporate profits, this is the only risk variable, and affects the mood of the (stock) market almost every day.
And as Wall Street’s well-known investment bank, Goldman Sachs, has been diluting the “worst case” threat for weeks, it has recently begun to change its attitude and become the latest to comment on this issue. Investors, which further highlights: If a full-scale trade war breaks out, the potential dangers facing US companies will rise sharply.
Goldman Sachs: If all goods are taxed, US stocks will fall 25%, and the market value will evaporate 6 trillion US dollars!
David Kostin, chief equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, has changed his mind. In stark contrast to his traditional optimism, he even calls for a possible bear market to come! Costin predicts that if the US imposes a 10% tax on all imported products, the S&P will fall 25%, which will eventually lead to a market value of more than $6 trillion.
Costin’s sensitivity analysis of the baseline case and a moderate and severe trade war predicted that a 25% tax on Chinese goods would offset the standard. The growth of the Poole 500 Index next year will eventually result in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index earnings per share will remain at $ 159.
So what about the situation in extreme cases?
In fact, a cow’s finance has been mentioned before. Barclays has evaluated this situation in June, that is, if the United States imposes a 10% tax on all global imports, US income will The decline was 10% because the cost of Americans rose and the company's profits were squeezed.
A comprehensive trade war may lead to US stocks walking
< In addition to the decline in performance, Goldman Sachs also expects the price/earnings ratio of Standard & Poor's to contract, from the current 17 times to 15 times, which eventually led to the S&P plummeting 25% from the current 2,888 points to 2 , 200 points, This will lead to the outbreak of the bear market and erase more than $6 trillion in market capitalization. However, for BTFders, Goldman Sachs also left an optimistic outlook: by the end of 2019, the S&P index will rise to 3140 points.
However, as mentioned in a financial newsletter before the financial news, the US stock market (if Not a global stock market) is calmly dealing with the trade war.
The S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) rebounded on Wednesday (September 12), which, of course, has a close relationship with previous market sentiment changes, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. Trump will propose a new round of negotiations with China in the near future.
However, the market also has an opposite argument: the higher the S&P index, the more bold Trump believes that he is winning the battle and does not need to talk to China. Because he believes that the latter will be forced to "soften" sooner or later. This is also why the "Olive Branch" of the United States to China is U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin, not Trump himself.
At the same time, most analysts believe that the only thing that can force Trump to sit down and talk to Beijing seriously is the sharp fall in the US stock market.
However, ironically, Trump may continue to think that he is A "winner", after all, the US stock market has performed better than the stock markets in other parts of the world so far.
(Copyright: This article is the original compilation of a Niu Caijing, please get authorization before reprinting, please indicate the source after reprinting!)
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