1.13 sets per capita! The crux of the property market is too many houses, or is the house price too high?

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1.13 sets per capita! The crux of the property market is too many houses, or is the house price too high?

2018-12-04 00:25:37 25 ℃

Summary:Looking at single data is easy.

Essay|Honey Sister

There is a question of whether there is a bubble in our property market, and the views of all parties have always been consistent.

Different arguments can come up with a bunch of data to support. If you look at a certain point of view and its supporting data, it seems to have some truth.

In the near future, the Research Department of China International Capital Corporation released a report showing that at the end of 2017, China’s urban housing stock totaled 26.1 billion square meters, totaling 270 million sets (excluding collective housing); Excluding the collective households) 1.13 sets of housing per household!

The question of our property market is whether there are too many houses, is there a bubble?

01

1.13 per capita, but still 20% of urban households have no housing.

China International Capital Corporation (hereinafter referred to as CICC), which announced the report, is China’s first Sino-foreign joint venture investment bank. It should be said that its research report is quite valuable.

The data of CICC’s report, once released, has drawn attention from all parties. The question of whether there is a bubble in the property market is once again being watched.

The statement of 1.13 sets of housing in China's housing is similar to that of the Evergrande Institute last month: in 2017, China's urban households owned 1.11 units.

However, it has always been easy to be ridiculed by the average thing, and it is indeed for a reason.

For example, this research report also shows that 20% of urban households have no self-occupied housing (half of them are rented separately and half are shared); 65% have 1 suite; 9% have 2 suites; 3% own 3 suites; 1% with 4 suites and 3% with 5 or more houses.

Zhong Jin also said that the 1.13 suite per person does not indicate "sufficient".

02

Void rate is not the only standard I have to see where people go.

There are too many houses, whether they are sufficient, or from the vacancy rate that has been repeatedly attacked.

Before, Ms. Mi also wrote an article to analyze the problem of vacancy rate ("What is the ghost of the vacant tax flatning real estate bubble?"), whether it is from the academic research or the country in March this year. The grid has published the survey results of China's housing vacancy rate. The vacancy rate problem in China cannot be ignored.

The data released by CICC can also be seen. From the perspective of general vacancy rate, China's vacancy rate is also inconsistent with the international reasonable range of 10%-15%. The vacancy rate in the township is as high as 19.9% ​​and it is already in danger.

It is worth noting that CICC’s report also stated that “the vacancy rate has declined in the past decade trend".

In fact, this is still determined by the basic law of supply and demand. So, on the other hand, we have to look at the population issue.

In September this year, the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in 2000, the country’s floating population exceeded 100 million. In 2017, the total number of floating population in the country exceeded 200 million, accounting for nearly 18% of the total population.

The floating population mainly flows to the eastern region, and the three major urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region gather the majority of the floating population.

Since 2000, China’s urbanization rate has increased by an average of 1.3 percentage points per annum, and in 2017 it has reached 58.5%.

In accordance with China’s National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020), by 2020, we will achieve the goal of 100 million migrant workers and other permanent residents to settle in cities and towns. These people have entered the city. There must be huge housing needs.

Therefore, the continuous population inflow and urbanization have made the first-tier cities and hot-selling second-tier cities have strong demand support.

The small towns where the vacancy rate itself is too high, combined with the outflow of population, are generally normal if the property market fluctuates greatly.

03

However, there is a demand that does not make the property market worry-free, because people who need it can afford it.

It’s better to say that the biggest problem in the property market is that the house price is too high.

Buying a house is not a matter of one person or even a small family in most of the realities of our country.

So, looking at the "price-to-income ratio" is also very nonsense. For example, Beijing's average monthly salary is nearly 10,000, and the average house price is 50,000 to 60,000. And how many people buy a house in Beijing, is it only based on wage income?

Although the probability of "price-to-income ratio" does not reflect our actual buying situation, the problem now is that even if many families are willing to take out six wallets to buy a house, they may not be able to take out so much money in the first line. Buy a house in a second-tier city or city.

With this round of resolute adjustment of the property market, it should be said that the effect will begin to appear in the second half of this year. Not only is everyone now more rational about buying a house, but the second-hand housing market has also begun to fall back.

Although measures such as multi-agent supply have been advancing, in the long run, if you want to buy commercial housing in first-tier cities and hot-selling second-tier cities, it is not so reliable to rely on the so-called property market. Spectrum.

And some short-term housing prices may not be affected, and even some places are still rising, but if you hold them for a long time, you may have to bear the risk of shrinking assets.

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