In the 2019 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, how should investors choose?

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In the 2019 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, how should investors choose?

2018-12-06 10:25:24 30 ℃


In 2019, it was both an opportunity and a challenge for the global investment market. However, compared with previous years, the global financial market has shown a distinct differentiation. For example, emerging market stocks represented by A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have gradually improved their valuation advantages after a large adjustment. In contrast, the US stock market is still in a historically high region. With the obvious slowdown in the US stock market in 2018, there are more unknown risks to the market in 2019.

In fact, in the eyes of investors, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A-share markets are the major investment markets in the current global market, and are also the markets that are most likely to be noticed by global investors.

Among them, for the US stock market, it is a leader in the global capital market, and the ups and downs of the US stock market over the years have often profoundly affected the performance of the global stock market, especially in emerging markets. At the same time, because the US stock market has a history of hundreds of years, the market's own operating mechanism and the function of survival of the fittest are relatively mature, the trading system of the US stock market is more likely to learn and imitate the rest of the capital market.

It is undeniable that, for the moment, the author believes that the US stock market is still relatively high in the global capital market and still has a high voice and influence. For the long-term, the attractiveness of the US stock market is still very strong, but in the short to medium term, the US stock market is facing the pressure of medium-term adjustment. After all, the US stock market is in a historically high level, and the overall valuation level is in the past ten years. The upper limit of valuation, which constitutes a certain suppression of the subsequent performance of the US stock market.

Furthermore, for the Hong Kong stock market, its trend is largely influenced by the US stock market and the A-share market, and the overall operating trend is more biased towards the A-share market. However, compared with the US stock market and the A-share market, the Hong Kong stock market tends to have a lower valuation advantage. The AH share premium rate, H shares tend to have a larger discount rate space, and the value investment perspective tends to have an advantage.

However, the low valuation of the Hong Kong stock market itself has certain hidden risks. For example, some of the old stocks have the characteristics of low price and low valuation, but there are actually many hidden risks. For Hong Kong stock investment, investors need to play a 12-point spirit, otherwise it is easy to fall into the trap of investment, not worth the candle.

In addition, for the A-share market, after a three-and-a-half-year deep adjustment, the current A-share market is already at the bottom of the historical valuation, but still undervalued with the Hong Kong stock market. There is a slight distance between the values. However, the average valuation level of the core targets such as the above 50 is actually very close to the average valuation of the Hong Kong stock market, and the continued narrowing of the AH premium rate is also a true reflection.

However, for the performance of listed companies in the A-share market, there is still a certain differentiation performance, and the median valuation still has room for continuous compression. However, for the A-share market, the core target has a very important impact on the bottoming out of the stock market valuation. For the A-share market, strong liquidity is the biggest advantage, but the pressure of expansion, strong demand for reduction and weaker survival of the fittest are the disadvantages of the A-share market.

For the upcoming 2019, there is greater uncertainty about the capital market. However, for US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and the A-share market, 2019 will inevitably further aggravate the situation of differentiation. Relatively speaking, the US stock market may be in the process of gradually releasing risks, while the A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market may continue the bottoming process, but the risk release pressure will be lower than the US stock market.

However, the choice of investment targets may be more informative than the analysis and judgment of market indices.

In fact, referring to the big bull market in the US stock market for nearly ten years, in fact, it is basically dominated by giant companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia, but many US listed companies have not performed with the market. The increase is synchronized. It is not so much the big bull market that belongs to the US stock market in the past ten years. It is better to say that the past ten years belong to the golden development period of giant companies such as Apple and Amazon.

It can be seen that for the 2019 US stock market, if giant companies such as Apple and Amazon have established bear market, the probability of the US stock market entering a bear market in 2019 will suddenly increase. However, if such giant companies can complete the bottoming process ahead of time and take the lead in releasing the adjustment risk, it will help to improve the stability of the US stock market. In the long run, the US stock market is still worth looking forward to, but in the short to medium term, US stocks are more likely to enter the medium-term adjustment.

As for the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market, in 2019, it is also necessary to focus on the most important weight stocks, such as Tencent in the Hong Kong stock market, Ping An in the A-share market, and Maotai in Guizhou. These are the market trends. The wind vane variety. However, from another perspective, investors can participate in A-shares or Hong Kong stocks through ETFs, and then wait for the US stock market to adjust to a certain space, and then indirectly participate in the US stock market investment through QDII. This is also a comparison. A sound investment strategy is also a way to diversify risk.

However, considering that 2019 is still a continuation of the release of risk in the global financial market, investors still need to maintain a certain degree of cautiousness and rationality in the proportion of stock assets, and the stock asset allocation ratio is appropriate to control the family. The ratio of less than 30% of total assets, through the decentralization of assets through asset allocation, may be a sound investment strategy for a period of time in the future.