In the first half of 2018, global house prices rose by 50! Why are these 9 mainland second-tier cities on the list?

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In the first half of 2018, global house prices rose by 50! Why are these 9 mainland second-tier cities on the list?

2018-12-07 00:25:06 24 ℃

Summary: Each round of house price cycle starts from the east and first-tier cities

Essay|Honey Sister

After the overall misfiring of housing prices in first-tier cities in China, the global housing price index has stabilized quite a bit.

Today (December 6), Hurun Report released the "Global House Price Index for the First Half of 2018", which is different from last year's Chinese cities occupying the top 50 gains. In the first half of this year, the mainland cities in the 50 cities on the list only accounted for 9 seats.

In 2017, the “Hurun Global House Price Index” showed that Wuxi ranked second with a 18.2% increase. In 2016, Wuxi’s increase was even higher, at 34.3%.

Hefei is as crazy as Wuxi. It rose 18% in 2017 and 48.4% in 2016, ranking third.

In addition to Wuxi and Hefei, Guangzhou, Xiamen, Zhengzhou, Nanjing and Huizhou occupy the top 10 list. If you don't see three other foreign cities sprawling on top10, Mommy almost mistakenly thought that this is a list of China's house price index.

But in the first half of this year, the situation is very different.

The first-tier cities on the list last year were fully retired. Only one Chinese city is in Top10: Xi'an.

In the top 50 list of gains, the number of cities in mainland China has also dropped sharply to nine. They are: Xi'an (8), Xuzhou (16), Chongqing (17), Luoyang (19), Nanning (23), Changsha (29), Wenzhou (43), Nanchang (46), Ningbo (48).

From the top few cities in the list, you will find that in addition to this Xi'an and Chongqing, which have been in the network red level for two years, are almost all of the more unpopular cities.

On the one hand, it reflects that the regulation and control pressure has spread to the once-hot and strong second-tier cities, and at the same time, the heat of housing prices is transmitted to the weak second-line and even the weaker third-fourth.

On the other hand, from the perspective of urban distribution across the country, as the industry moves to the Midwest, some new cities are emerging. The GDP growth rate of Chongqing and Changsha before the net outflow began to exceed that of the eastern coastal and first-tier cities. More and more people are willing to go to live and work in peace and contentment, and prices have naturally risen.

The current housing prices in first-tier cities are already very unfriendly, especially for the grassroots in the first-tier cities to go to the city, buying a house has become more and more out of reach.

But buying a house is an almost ingrained tradition, so many people choose to work in the first place while working in the hometown. A set of provincial capital cities or other favorite cities.

My sister has worked in Beijing for many years. Whether they bought a house before the rising cycle or if they still haven’t bought a house in Beijing, they will choose to buy at least one set in the capital city of their hometown. /p>

In the past two years, my girlfriend in Beijing has gone to Chongqing, Ningbo, and Changsha.

The situation today is that most of the hot city prices have risen by about 50% before the start of the cycle, and this part of the city has begun to limit purchases.

Local friends without social security basically have no way to buy a house. Of course, they can take special measures through the intermediary, but such a group is a minority.

These cities on the list are also much smaller than last year. If regulation continues to be transmitted, the city's gains on the list next year or in the second half of this year are expected to be smaller.

Under the monetary policy remains unchanged and the domestic and international economic situation is stable, depending on the sustainability of the rise in housing prices in a city, it depends on the attractiveness, economic and location advantages of his foreign population.

For example, if you go north to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, you will slowly return to the rational rise after falling, because their huge just-needed group is there. To take root in a city, you have to buy the property in the city because the house is tied up with too many rights.

In addition, there are more wealthy people in the first-tier cities, so there are so many investment channels, and the real estate is very important. Naturally, the financial attributes of these urban properties are stronger.

If it is a third- and fourth-tier city with a long-term net outflow, it may be followed by market expectations at this stage, but when the bubble fades, the most smashing is also them.

Especially recently, the shed reform policy has tightened again.

According to media reports, in the context of the remodeling of the target contraction and the risk of controlling hidden debts, the new shed reform project in 2019 may not be in the name of government purchasing services, disguised debts or implementation of construction projects. .

This means that in the case of a reduction in monetary resettlement and a reduction in the total number of sheds, the channels for sheds to change their money have also been reduced. And those third- and fourth-tier cities that have pushed up housing prices because of the sheds, the property market into the winter is a big probability.

In fact, it is more than the third- and fourth-tier cities. The sound of the country’s property market into the winter has long been rampant.

It should be noted that at present, China's real estate market is shifting from an era dominated by incremental new homes to an era dominated by stock transactions.

The current number of households in China is around 1.1. Compared with the developed economies of the United States and Japan, their household households (the number of urban households and the number of housing units) are basically stable at 1.1. Between 1.2 and then Japan also showed a downward trend.

Basically, we are close to the peak of the new house size. The era of large expansion of incremental housing will gradually come to an end, and the relative position of new and second-hand housing is changing.

Each round of house price cycle starts from the east, first-tier cities, and then to the east, then to the central and western, second- and third-tier cities. This time is no exception.

Similarly, the inflection point also starts from the east and begins.

Winter is coming, will spring be far behind?

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