Demystifying the "short-term trading Dafa" of the private stock gods! How should ordinary investors play?

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Demystifying the "short-term trading Dafa" of the private stock gods! How should ordinary investors play?

2018-12-07 10:25:24 21 ℃

The stock market is deep! Small stock investors are often envied by Xu Xiang and other folk stock gods while being cut of leeks. A closer look at the history of these stocks, you can find that they have a self-contained short-term trading Dafa, such as the daily limit strategy.

However, the ability to use the daily limit strategy is a private equity fund predator, and the threshold is tens of millions. Ordinary people can't enter the door at all, and they are mostly buying public funds with low thresholds. So, are there fund managers who are good at short-term trading in public funds? Let's dig deeper below.

The daily limit strategy of private stocks

The folk stocks represented by Xu Xiang generally adopt the daily limit strategy as the basis for stock investment.

The daily limit is based on the hot spot of the stock market. By buying stocks to the daily limit, it attracts short-term strategies to follow the funds.

Why does the ups and downs strategy make money? There are two main reasons:

One is that A-share hotspots are more than bull stocks. There is no reasonable delisting system for A shares, resulting in the overall quality of A-share listed companies is not high. For example, in 2017, the net operating cash flow of A-shares excluded financial totaled 2.55 trillion yuan, which was lower than the net net cash flow of investment of 3.05 trillion yuan. This shows that A-shares earn less and invest more. In addition, the net cash flow from financing in 2017 was 1.15 trillion yuan, which indicates that A shares need to be continuously raised to meet their expansion needs (see Figure 1). The general characteristics of the bull stocks are that they earn more and invest less, and at the same time continue to distribute dividends to shareholders. This is the opposite of A-shares. A-shares rarely have large bull stocks suitable for long-term holding. In this kind of environment, it is better to speculate on the theme and hotspots than to explore the big bulls.

Second, retail investors tend to chase and rise, and the daily limit is an important target for chasing. In the environment where hotspots and themes are sought after by retail investors, it is only necessary to cooperate with the market hotspots to buy the relevant stocks into a daily limit, which can attract retail investors to follow suit and sell in the subsequent continuous daily limit.

Looking at the real case--In the case of Xu Xiang’s copy of the Chongqing Beer event, the concept of “rise is the reason for buying” is vividly reflected (see Figure 2). At that time, Chongqing Beer failed to develop hepatitis B vaccine. The stock price continued to fall. Xu Xiang doubled the price at 24 yuan and 20 yuan. Then the stock rebounded to around 34 yuan, and Xu Xiang also sold in the rebound and realized the proceeds.

In the fourth quarter of this year, with the implementation of the policy of reducing trading resistance, the topics of low-priced stocks and st-shares also experienced a continuous daily limit, and a large number of investors obtained Good income.

Do public funds have short-term trading masters?

The above-mentioned investors who succeeded through short-term trading generally choose to set up private equity funds to run their own funds. For example, Xu Xiang established Zexi Investment, which reached 15 billion at the end of 2014. However, for ordinary investors, the threshold of private equity funds is very high, generally it takes 1 million yuan to purchase, and the public fund that starts with a purchase of 100 yuan is the choice of the door-to-door.

So, are there short-term trading masters in the low-throwing public funds?

In order to find the answer to this question, the author studied the transaction costs and performance of public funds, and found that:

(1) On average, transaction costs accounted for assets Funds with a net worth of more than 20% have the worst performance. This shows that there are few short-term trading experts in public fund managers. The more frequent the transactions, the worse the fund returns. Here is a detailed analysis:

Table 1 divides 523 funds into 7 groups according to the ratio of transaction costs to net assets, and then counts the number of funds and average transaction costs of the 7 groups of funds. , the average rate of return and the probability of higher than the average rate of return, the time interval is from 2013 to mid-2015. It can be found that the three groups of funds with the highest transaction costs have an average yield that is much lower than the average yield of all 523 funds of 119.85%, and the probability of the top 50% of the fund's income is also lower.

(2) On average, the transaction costs account for less than 1.5% of the net asset value, overall The highest rate of return. This shows that whether in the bull market or the bullish market, it is usually the best strategy to select a type of stock and wait for the wind, otherwise it will be difficult to catch up with the fast switching of A-shares.

Look at the performance of public funds since 2017. According to the above method, the transaction costs and performance of 669 public funds in 2017 and the first half of 2018 were calculated and divided into 7 groups according to the ratio of transaction costs to net assets (see Table 2). It can be found that the conclusion is basically consistent with the previous round of the cycle. The fund with a transaction cost of less than 1.5% of the net asset value has the highest overall rate of return, indicating that the A share should strengthen its own stock selection logic and cannot be adjusted frequently according to market changes. warehouse.

In summary, by counting the transaction costs and performance of public funds, it is found that there are no fund managers in the public fund that are short-term operations. The more frequent the transaction, the fund performance The worse. This shows that the public fund managers in China generally take the fundamental research of the academic school as the starting point. The less frequent the transaction, the clearer the core shareholding logic and the best performance. Therefore, before investing in funds, you can focus on public funds with lower transaction costs.

Source: Suning wealth of information; Author: Suning Financial Research Institute Senior Fellow left Junyi