"Double-width cycle" is coming soon! If so, the property market is likely to usher in a retaliatory rebound

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"Double-width cycle" is coming soon! If so, the property market is likely to usher in a retaliatory rebound

2018-12-10 10:25:15 74 ℃

Author: C AND see Finance

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced economic data in November, the national consumer price CPI decreased by 0.3% year on year grew by only 2.2% last year, 2018 prices The trend of continuous rise has been curbed, and there has been a relatively large decline this month. According to the classification item, the price of fresh fruits is up, and the increase of 13.3% is directly affected by the increase of CPI by 0.21%. The performance was stable, fresh vegetables were stable year-on-year, but the chain was down more. Meat prices remained stable. Pork prices fell by 1.1% year-on-year, and CPI fell by 0.03%.

In addition to food prices, housing, education, culture and entertainment, as well as health care, are pushing up CPI The main factors, but basically remain stable, traffic factors with the collapse of oil prices, the decline is relatively large. The price of oil that we have been worried about before has risen sharply, and the possibility of pushing up CPI has been basically lifted.

Looking at the changes in PPI, the ex-factory price index of industrial producers only rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Since June, PPI has been falling. Among them, only the mining industry price rose by 9.2%, and the raw material industry price rose by 4.6%. These increases were relatively large, and other prices remained stable. From the purchase price point of view, construction materials and non-metal prices rose by 9.3% year-on-year, fuel-powered prices rose by 7.9%, and ferrous materials prices rose by 5.5%. It shows that the current strong cycle is not established. It was still affected by the oil price. The price of individual materials was affected by the changes in supply, but for most materials, the price was stable. The most terrible thing is that the price of industrial products cannot be transmitted downstream, and the prices of finished products are not going up, and consumer prices are not rising. This is equivalent to the production company itself to bear the loss. This will inevitably affect profits and make many companies in trouble.

In fact, every month we will interpret price changes in the fan base of Knowledge Planet Qi Junjie, just to help you capture The market has a strong cycle of investment opportunities. As we said before, is it a strong cycle? The first thing to look at is the copper price trend. The rapid rise of copper price is likely to be a strong cycle return. The second is to use PPI to verify, and the PPI also follows the rise. The probability of a strong periodic regression is great. But now we can see that the price of copper has been consolidating since June, and there is no sign of rising. The PPI has also started to decline all the way in June, so this is actually telling us to avoid the investment of strong cycle, such as steel. Non-ferrous, coal building materials, only cement has risen well before, it is because of the price increase caused by supply, it is also not caused by demand, the supply shortage caused by the rise, the fast-moving is also fast, be extra careful, he will Prices without warning began to change. For example, before the oil price, who can think of a rapid collapse after October.

This data is still good in November. He told us that the risk of inflation has been basically lifted, and the future will be removed. The price perturbation, the price may continue to fall, so now anti-inflation is certainly not necessary, the next step of the central bank must be full defense against deflation. At the beginning of this year, our currency cycle has actually begun to relax. Although it is still a neutral monetary policy, you can see through the 10-year bond yield that the market has entered the stage of wide currency tight credit, the biggest performance. That is, the bond bull market has already started, and in the future, it will fully prevent deflation and create enterprise vitality. It will inevitably loosen credit on the basis of wide currency. That is, we say that delevering is basically in place and the future will enter a wide credit cycle. Now you Looking at all kinds of news is all about supporting corporate financing loans. This trend has already begun.

The two most recent wide currency and wide credit cycles, at the end of 2008 and 2015, in this cycle Before and after, there has been a trend of stocks and debts. Of course, the stocks and debts have quickly passed. The performance of the stock market is often a sharp rise and fall. The real benefit is the property market. Now we are about to enter the double-width cycle again. The biggest test now is actually the property market. I hope that through the tight fence to limit the flow of funds into the property market and continue to push up the asset bubble, but this kind of thing is just wishful thinking, after all, there is no precedent for success. The only difference is that there is no restriction on purchase in 2009. The property market is a free market. In 2015, it was the first large-scale cancellation of the purchase restriction, and opened the double-width cycle. Now, the restrictions on purchases, restrictions on sales, and restrictions on loans are still very tight. Here we have to remind you that since the double-width cycle is coming soon, if you release the limit purchase loan at this time, it is likely to usher. A retaliatory rebound. This risk history has been verified many times and has to be prevented.

As long as the existing policy is not relaxed, the bank strictly restricts loans, does not give discounted mortgages, and reduces development loans. This place strictly enforces purchase restrictions, restricts sales, and resolutely calls for cessation of monetization. Perhaps it is possible to prevent the double-width cycle from coming, and to stimulate the property market. Therefore, this matter requires determination and more perseverance. We have just found the right path this year and must not give up. Be wary of the situation, in the situation of robbing people to disguise and relax the purchase restrictions. As long as we maintain the current policy continuity for more than three years, house prices in some places will gradually fall back and become reasonable, and a soft landing is possible. However, if the double-width cycle comes, the economy does not recover, the enterprise has not improved, and the house price has risen again. Then I really don’t know what to do in the future. Maybe a hard landing will be inevitable.