By investing to pull the economy back and forth, where is the future reform?

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By investing to pull the economy back and forth, where is the future reform?

2018-12-14 20:25:09 218 ℃

China's achievements in the past 40 years are obvious to all, but the development model that relies on investment to drive the economy is not sustainable.

In the future, the Chinese economy should maintain medium-to-high-speed growth. What should we do?

Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, believes that it is fundamental to promote high-quality development and supply-side structural reform. Liu Qiao, dean of Peking University Guanghua School of Management, believes that the key to high quality development is to increase the return on investment capital.

The country is a through train Hou Yuxu map

1 yuan investment, after-tax profit only 3 cents

In the past 40 years, China’s economic aggregate has increased by 34 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.5%; manufacturing industry’s share of the world has increased from 1% to 25%, making it the world’s number one. Manufacturing powers; the number of top 500 companies increased from two in 1996 to 120 in 2018.

It can be said that the Chinese economy has made great achievements in scale.

But the size is not equal to the high quality.

Compared with the top ten companies with the highest market value in China and the United States, the United States is dominated by high-tech and Internet companies, such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.; China provides production factors (finance, raw materials). Enterprises such as energy, energy, etc., such as Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank, PetroChina, and China Ping An.

Chinese companies present such a layout, which is related to the emphasis on investment and emphasis on scale in the past 40 years. Because the demand for factors of production in the past rapid economic growth is very strong.

"But this development model is difficult to continue in the future." Liu Qiao pointed out that in the past 20 years, the average investment capital return rate of China's A-share main board listed companies is only 3%, equivalent to 1 yuan investment. After-tax profit is only 3 cents. In 2017, social financing was about 19.4 trillion yuan, while GDP growth was 5 trillion yuan, indicating that the marginal effect of China's macroeconomic policies is weakening.

The implication is that the mode of investment-driven economic growth alone is not sustainable.

In the case of a reduction in the marginal effect of investment, if you want to maintain the medium-to-high-speed growth of the economy, according to the previous model, a larger amount of factor input is required, and this corresponds to high leverage. According to the data of the Bank for International Settlements last year, Chinese corporate debt accounted for 1.6 times of GDP, while US corporate debt was about 2/3 of GDP.

Economist Wu Jinglian said that relying on investment to drive the economy is to eat food.

Therefore, in order to maintain sustained and healthy economic development in the future, it is necessary to change the way of development.

How to achieve high quality economic development?

Yang Weimin pointed out that if the medium and high-speed growth of the economy is to be maintained in the future, the model of promoting and resource consumption by the past will no longer be feasible, and it must shift from high-speed growth to high-quality growth.

The high-quality growth path is to adhere to a policy, quality first, efficiency first; adhere to a main line, supply-side structural reform; adhere to three changes, quality change, efficiency change, dynamic change; The four-in-one, the real economy, scientific and technological innovation, modern finance, and the coordinated development of human resources; establish a three-in-one system, effective market mechanisms, dynamic micro-level entities, and macro-control; promote two major reforms, property rights system reform and factor market reform .

At the same time, it is necessary to establish a supporting indicator system, policy system, standard system, statistical system, performance evaluation, and performance evaluation to promote high-quality growth, and create and improve the institutional environment.

Song Zhiping, president of the sixth session of the China Enterprise Research Institute, believes that the direction of future reform is marketization. The core of reform is the mechanism. The direction of development is high quality, and the core of development is innovation and transformation. "In addition to reform and innovation, there is no choice."

It is worth noting that China's current economic development is facing a "four downs and one liters" situation. Specifically, first, economic growth reproduces downward pressure, second, domestic consumption demand declines, third, corporate profitability declines, fourth, market expectations decline, and fifth, financial risks rise.

There are three imbalances in economic development behind the "four downs and one liters": First, the structural imbalance between supply and demand in the real economy, on the one hand, overcapacity, on the one hand, supply is difficult to meet demand; second, financial and real economy Unbalanced, financial separation from the real economy self-circulation; third is the imbalance between real estate and the real economy, high housing prices squeeze the real economy.

Yang Weimin specifically mentioned that the current high housing prices have already squeezed the consumption and the real economy. “Every year, the interest rate of residential mortgage loans is 1.5 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to 18% of the savings that can be saved by residents. If there is no mortgage pressure, there will be room for consumption.”

In addition, high housing prices bring two aspects to the real economy. The problem is that the funds are further diversified, and the crowding out effect is generated, which indirectly raises the financing cost of the real economy. If the enterprise has worked hard for a lifetime of manufacturing, it is better to buy a small house in Beishang Guangshen; Raise the operating costs of the real economy, such as rising rents, employee wages, social security contributions and so on.

To provide affordable and affordable housing, Yang Weimin believes that the housing system reform should be restarted.

From: State is a train

Author: Zhang twist

Editor: Guo Lingjie