Will the housing prices continue to rise in 2019 when the real estate regulation policy is released?

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Will the housing prices continue to rise in 2019 when the real estate regulation policy is released?

2018-12-24 00:25:10 110 ℃

The first thing to note is that the possibility of fully liberalizing real estate regulation and control policies in 2019 is minimal. At most, the third- and fourth-tier cities or some small and medium-sized banks do a little trick. The release of the central level is unlikely. Of course, due to real estate regulation and control, the downward pressure on the domestic economy will increase, but this does not change the determination of the central government to "stay in the house and not speculate."

Why do many people think that real estate regulation should be released? There are three main reasons: First, Heze, Shandong and other places have recently released the policy of restricting purchases and restrictions, which is considered by the outside world to be the first shot of relaxation. Second, the interest rate of the first home loan in November did not continue to rise, maintaining the original interest rate, which made people think about it, is the real estate loosened? Third, the difficulty in financing housing enterprises in November has been alleviated. Many housing companies have integrated funds in the bond market and the trust market.

However, we believe that the above reasons are not enough to show that housing prices will continue to rise in 2019: First, the restrictions on the sale of Hoze and other places will be cancelled. According to local real estate sales, mainly the residents of the sheds Buying a house has to be transferred, and Heze has implemented a restriction order. The original new landlord can’t sell it, and the person who wants to buy a house can’t get in. This has to cancel the restriction order.

What's more, the restriction order itself plays a role in limiting housing prices. If the house price falls, a lot of selling will be thrown to the market, and the restriction of sales will cause the local house price to plummet. In fact, Heze’s industrial structure is single, and the relaxation of the restricted sales order can only accelerate the exit of speculative real estate speculation, and the housing price is accelerating.

Furthermore, the first home loan interest rate did not continue to rise in November. The mortgage loan rise cycle ended at 22 consecutive rises. There are two main factors: on the one hand, the downward pressure on the economy is too large, so I want to Encourage you just need to be a pick-up man. If the mortgage interest rate has been rising, you just need to delay the purchase process. On the other hand, to prevent and control the real estate financial crisis, if the mortgage interest rate rises to the highest level in history, and then encounter high housing prices, it is easy to push up the cost of home buyers, resulting in weaker repayment ability of home buyers, then abandon the house A breakout will appear.

Finally, the loosening of financing for housing companies is also a cause. Since the beginning of this year, housing companies have experienced difficulties in financing and financing. However, in the second half of this year, it is precisely the period of centralized debt repayment of housing enterprises. If the housing enterprises are not allowed to raise funds at home and abroad through debt issuance, trust, equity transfer, etc., then The debts of the housing enterprises that are due will not be returned. And these are in the process of cleaning up the real estate expansion in 2015, to avoid systemic financial risks.

As for whether domestic house prices will rise again in 2019, we believe that it is already impossible: First, the decline in national real estate has been obvious, and house prices have risen from 2015 to now. There is no stoppage in it. Only the first-tier cities will rise first, the second-tier cities will follow suit, and the third- and fifth-tier cities will also make up. Now all of them have gone up, and the market is over.

Second, the decline in house prices has been a trend. After more than three years of real estate regulation and control, the effect has become obvious, and people’s expectations of rising house prices have begun to reverse. In the past, house prices have risen, and these real estate speculators have followed. Now that house prices have fallen, real estate speculators have also withdrawn. The psychology of buying up and not buying down will always follow the buyers. Moreover, next year, the domestic economy will be under pressure and the buyers will not be able to buy houses as badly as they used to.

Third, with the current housing price increase campaign lasting for three years, most people now have several sets of housing in their hands. Even migrant workers working in first- and second-tier cities can’t afford to buy in big cities. The house also went to the fifth and sixth tier cities near the hometown, and the real estate demand is not unlimited, but it is now becoming saturated. If the demand for speculative home purchases is withdrawn, the demand for home purchases will suddenly drop. Where are there so many mortgage loans to push up house prices?