Summary: 21.4% What is this level?

Essay|Honey Sister&Editor|Wang Xin

Does the price increase? It is a topic that everyone cares about. But what do you want to judge the price will rise? Everyone has a set of logic.

In fact, if we figure out the total amount of housing in our country and the vacancy situation, this problem is much simpler. Because we can judge the real supply and demand of the residential market from these data.

Public reports show that in 2005 the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the vacancy rate of commercial housing was 26%, but this data is included in the area for sale, and the sale rate is considered as the vacancy rate. So from 2008, this data will not be released.

The statistical part indicates that this indicator cannot be calculated temporarily. The public security department said that its data is temporarily inaccurate, and the State Grid simply clarified the relationship between grid data and vacancy rate. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that the folk statistical methods are not objective enough. At present, "there is no accurate official definition"...

But the public is thirsty for knowledge. After all, the house is a big event that affects the wealth of many of us. At present, various organizations have a variety of algorithms for vacancy rates, and the conclusions drawn are quite different.

The China Center for Family Finance Research and Research of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics recently released the “2017 China Urban Housing Vacancy Analysis”, which mentioned the vacancy rate in China. The conclusion is: 21.4%.

At the same time, the report also mentioned that our vacancy rate is increasing year by year, based on the measurement of urban vacant housing The absolute number is about 65 million sets.

This report uses a sample survey method. The sample covers 364 districts or county-level cities in 29 provinces and about 40,000 households.

It defines vacant homes as unoccupied homes at the time of the survey, including: homes with only one home that are vacant due to work and other reasons, and homes held by multi-suite families. Housing that does not live or rent (including houses or 期房 being renovated). Still have a certain reference value.

21.4% What is this level?

According to international common practice, the vacancy rate of commercial housing is between 5% and -10%, and the balance between supply and demand of commercial housing is conducive to the healthy development of the national economy;

10% Between 20% of the vacant danger zones, certain measures must be taken to increase the sales of commercial housing to ensure the normal development of the real estate market and the normal operation of the national economy;

more than 20% is a serious backlog of commercial housing Area. According to this standard, 21.4% of this data is already very large.

This data is internationally contrasted and is quite amazing. The data from CHFS above can be seen in 19 countries after Italy and Spain.

The vacancy rate ratios of several other versions are also not optimistic. Then the problem has come. Since so many houses are empty, what is the price of the house that has remained high?

This question is too complicated. First of all, after so many years of development, the real estate industry has already possessed strong financial attributes. Secondly, when we understand the status of real estate in the economy today, we understand that housing prices can only be stabilized and not greatly reduced. What's more, the rise and fall of house prices is not just an economic issue.

Do you use vacant taxes to stabilize housing prices? For example, earlier this year, Hong Kong in China implemented the “empty tax on first-hand buildings” and opened the first of all in China. The vacant tax is 200% of the estimated annual rent. Enough!

Many national practices have proved that vacant taxes can be said to be "real estate killers." Because high taxes force homeowners to bring their houses to the market for leasing or trading, they increase the supply of the market, regardless of rent and house prices.

For example, in France, if the house is vacant for more than 1 year, it will pay 10% of the house price, 12.5% ​​for the second year and 15% for the third year. Under such a heavy punch, is there anyone who goes to real estate? So the cost of house prices in France was tamed.

But the honey sister wants to pour cold water is that China’s vacant tax is almost impossible to collect. why? As mentioned above, it is already more difficult to figure out the vacancy situation in our country. What is the tax on vacant houses?

If one word is used to describe China's real estate market, it is "chaos." You see, after so many years of development, the real estate industry has become an indispensable pillar industry in China.

But what surprised Ms. Mi, so far, from the perspective of data transparency, China’s real estate market is the basic data of the house, the statistical indicators of house prices, land supply, urban planning, housing demand. Wait, basically it’s a foolish account.

In terms of the basic data of the house, since the marketization of real estate in 1998, how many houses there are in China, and how many stocks of housing in each city, so far no department has disclosed authoritative statistics.

In the era when everyone says big data, the real estate industry that is ahead of it is "backward" incredible.

Further, think about the types of people who have the most vacant rooms...any one hurts seven inches The policy is too difficult to make a substantive push.

However, it is worth noting that this year’s high-level executives rarely talked about “vacant taxes.” The top-level meeting just opened last week also emphasized “the house does not speculate”.

Does this mean that in the near future, our data will be more transparent in terms of housing vacancy? Ms. Sister hopes to see the day in her lifetime.

Today's Christmas, I wish you a happy holiday!

Copyright Notice: This article is created by 闺蜜财经, unauthorized reproduction is prohibited! If you need to reprint, please get authorization. In addition, when authorizing the reprint, please also indicate the source and author at the beginning of the text, thank you!