US stocks suddenly rose without warning! what happened?

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US stocks suddenly rose without warning! what happened?

2018-12-27 10:25:17 254 ℃

Author: C AND see Finance

Ever since October, oil prices fell and went straight trip to the big open, Brent crude oil to $ 86 a barrel from highs, fell 50 The US dollar has fallen more than 40% in the past three months. This has caused long-term investors to suffer heavy losses and even overwhelmed some oil-producing countries. But just yesterday, the oil price staged a scene of counterattack, from $50 to 2 days. It has risen back to $55 and the bottom rebound has reached 10%.

From the news point of view, OPEC, the oil exporting country, has been unable to bear the plunging oil prices, and their deficits are also due to Oil prices have continued to expand, and Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran both need higher oil prices to maintain their budget next year, so it may soon start a production reduction agreement again. Citibank released a report that OPEC is expected to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day, a reduction of 3%, which is even higher than the 2.5% set at the beginning of this month, and will occur in the first quarter of 2019. It can be seen that the oil exporting countries have decided to take action against the ever-decreasing oil price. In the oil price game, OPEC's production reduction agreement is a very important indicator. As soon as they cut production, the oil price will rise, and once they rise, the production reduction agreement often It will automatically terminate, and then each will fight for a loose sand, coupled with the large supply of shale oil in the United States, crude oil inventories will become higher and higher, and oil prices will begin to turn down. When they fall, they start to cut production again, and they continue to cycle.

The price of oil suddenly skyrocketed, which also boosted the price of energy stocks. Yesterday, the US stock market also had a rare sun, 12 Since the beginning of the month, US stocks have been falling, and the three major stock indexes have fallen by 15%. It can be said that since the financial crisis in October 2008, US stocks have never fallen so much. This has caused many people to worry about the future of the US stock market. Even Goldman Sachs suggested that this may be a similar decline in 2008, and it is just the beginning stage. In such a pessimistic atmosphere, even at the time when the US government closed, US stocks began to fight back. The S&P and Dow Jones rose by 5% last night, while the Nasdaq rose by 6%. Shares soared collectively, Apple rose 7.04%, Amazon rose 9.45%, Naifei rose 8.46%, Google rose 6.42%, and Facebook rose 8.16%. Yesterday, this rise is crazy. Maybe these two figures can show that the 30 constituent stocks of the first Jones index have risen collectively. In the 18 years after 2000, there have been 10 times. The second is the 505 of the S&P 500. Among the constituent stocks, 500 have risen, which is even more statistically self-inflicted.

The US stocks have no sudden signs of sudden increase, at least not bad news, for the continuous decline of A shares can be loose Tone, now is a bitter stage, basically good, not learning, bad, not falling, US stocks continue to fall, has a relatively bad impact on A shares, although in the fan base of knowledge planet Qi Junjie, Lao Qi It has been said that US stocks and A-shares are out of synch. It doesn't matter much, but the psychological impact of this kind of thing is difficult to resolve. Before the A-shares strengthen, the decline in US stocks will affect us more or less. On the contrary, the surge in US stocks will also have a certain boost to the market. Last night's A50 futures also showed a good reaction.

Comprehensively, the US and the oil market's Jedi counterattack is indeed very exciting, and has played a strong boost for the global bleak capital market. The emergence of this big Yangxian line is to tell short-sellers that you can rest. It is. Many people may explode overnight, which is actually a warning that the unilateral decline may be coming to an end. Going to speculative shortings can be dangerous. However, it is still too early to say that the trend is still very early. We have not seen a particularly obvious signal to do more. Therefore, after the short-selling, the stock market and crude oil should be able to restore balance as soon as possible, at least indicating that the stage of the collapse should be basically over. The next step is to repeat. The process of bottoming and grinding the bottom does not rule out the possibility of falling again.

A lot of people are expecting US stocks and crude oil to pull out the V-shaped rebound, which is unrealistic and rarely The market can be reversed like this, unilaterally falling, and then a unilateral rise. Unless the big crisis breaks out, the strong bailout will come out of such a market. Now neither the oil price nor the US stock market has such a condition, so the more it is The Ministry, the more you can't worry. The bottom may be very long. According to the usual experience, once the US stock market has ended its 10-year bull market, it is often a year-long adjustment. It is very possible that it will not rise even in 10 years. So even though US stocks suddenly skyrocketed, we still recommend not to equip US stocks for the time being.

As for crude oil, it has always been a configuration asset. Before continuous innovation, we try to avoid it. If he can stop at this position and not hit a new low in a month, the original configuration can be taken back. But pay attention to the allocation of crude oil just to prevent inflation risks, the function is just to avoid risk, do not want to invest to make money, crude oil makes you make a lot of money is almost not much. Therefore, the allocation of crude oil does not exceed 10% of the total assets. It can be realized through futures, or crude oil funds. Of course, crude oil is similar to gold, and it is best to add it to the configuration combination with gold.

We are still more optimistic about the opportunity of A shares, because it is too cheap, too pessimistic. Others don't look good, even if they are worse, then the price will be cheaper. On the contrary, everyone is optimistic, even if it is really good, then the price is already in the sky. This is actually the way to invest. Although I can't tell you how to make money, I can tell you how to make money. That is what most people buy when you buy something. The result is very bad.