Goldman Sachs said the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index will see 3,700 points next year, up 20% from the current level.2018-12-27 20:25:31 130 ℃
Recently, the internationally renowned investment bank Goldman Sachs released a research report that all the valuations of A-shares are as low as 10 times, close to historical lows. It is expected that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index will target 3,700 points in 2019. As of December 27, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closed at 2,995.51 points, which means that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will have at least 23% increase.
A journalist’s research report from the agency shows that Chinese local investors are The stock market holds a negative view that no major changes have occurred since the beginning of 2018.
In essence, the overall pessimism of Chinese local investors is reflected in the low stock price-earnings ratio (the price-earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 9.8 times, lower than the 5-year average), and the balance of brokerage margin financing is down (75 billion yuan). The total cash value of the A-share public fund is 14%.
The agency pointed out that so far, the peak decline of 29% in 2018 is the fifth worst in history, the valuation is at the low point of the cycle (10 times P/E), and the profit in 2019 is expected to increase by 7% ( The stock market demand stabilized, driven by inclusive capital inflows, which is 3% lower than the general expectation.
Goldman Supreme believes that the main risks facing the Chinese market in 2019 include the following aspects:
The leverage ratio of the entire market has no room for improvement. With the shift from “lower leverage” to “stable leverage”, it means There is almost no room for promoting stable economic development through debt.
The development of the real estate market has slowed down. Real estate has contributed a lot to GDP growth in the past few years. However, under the strict control of the real estate market this year, the contribution to GDP has gradually decreased. Goldman Sachs expects this trend to continue until 2019. .
US stocks plummeted. In the past, it is difficult for the Chinese market to get out of the independent form whenever US stocks go bear. But next year's situation seems a bit special, because the US/US stock market beta earnings are as high as 38%, so even if the US stock market bear market in 2019, the impact on A shares will not be so strong.
The Goldman Sachs economists expect GDP growth to reach 6.2% in 2019, mainly driven by investment in the context of slowing exports and consumption.
Therefore, the agency's revenue for MSCI China is expected to reach 81 times, an increase of 11%, by the end of 2019. For China A shares, by the end of 2019, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index will also reach 3,700 points.
"Our expectation of China A-shares and MSCI China's return on investment in the region will continue to support our overweight allocation," Goldman Sachs said.
In terms of foreign capital inflows, Goldman Sachs expects that North China’s capital will reach US$65 billion (about 448 billion yuan) in 2019, which is a leap from the US$3 billion and US$4 billion in 2017 and 2018.
Goldman Sachs wrote in the research report: "From a market perspective, we are optimistic about China A shares because It has good risk/reward and influx of inclusion factors. As far as the industry is concerned, we use a barbell approach, prefer low-priced defense stocks (utilities, telecommunications), and choose cyclical exposures (insurance, real estate) At the same time, avoid consumption." Finally, on the theme, the relative trade between the winners and losers of the renminbi depreciation should continue to make Alpha in a strong environment. As US interest rate concerns weaken in 2019, we The “New China Nifty 50” is expected to restore market leadership.
Goldman Sachs also screened out 15 beneficiaries of listed private companies that could receive policy support, as it is still full of hope for China's reforms.
Editor: Roth Young
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