The People’s Daily reported that the US stocks fell 20%, and the seven judged how to change in 2019?

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The People’s Daily reported that the US stocks fell 20%, and the seven judged how to change in 2019?

2019-01-02 09:03:57 120 ℃

A few days ago, the People’s Daily’s predictions were swiped.

In January 2018, the People’s Daily published an article entitled “US stocks, there are risks behind the hot”, predicting that US stocks will fall 20% in 2018. The accuracy of this forecast is also very good. The Pu 500 and the Dow fell 19.57% and 18.77% from their highs respectively.

The author of this article is Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Academy of Social Sciences. The chief economist of the brokerage firm has a high evaluation in the circle. He is an old acquaintance of the cat brother. He has always been very low-key, but the strength is unquestionable. The judgment of the big trend is sharp, and the ability to analyze and judge is very strong. The current economists and wild economists are very different.

Cat brother recently communicated with many people. For 2019, everyone’s views are irrelevant. They all think that it is extremely crucial, but the situation is unclear. Zhang Ming also has some judgments on his own in 2019. An important reference for the one-year investment analysis framework, after sharing with the cats, we will share with you the external environment, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, real estate, where the most profitable effects, etc. Let us look at the business in 2019. With life.

Author| Zhang Ming

01 Will the external environment be better?

● The global economic growth rate and the intensification of differentiation may lead to China's export growth rate not exceeding expectations, which will bring new growth and employment pressure;

● Global capital market turmoil intensified with the Fed The subsequent interest rate hike may lead China to face another asset price decline, capital outflow and local currency depreciation pressure.

02 Will money be more?

Monetary policy continues to follow the 2018 policy tone, and the forecasts include:

● First, there may still be 3-4 RRR cuts in 2019. On the one hand, the RRR can supplement the financial system with the base currency in the context of sustained negative growth of foreign exchange, and on the other hand, it can alleviate the liquidity shortage caused by the contraction of the shadow banking system;

● Second, 2019 The central bank may still be cautious in lowering the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans. It may maintain the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate unchanged, and the number of interest rate cuts may be significantly lower than the number of RRR cuts;

● Third, the central bank will still Positive open market liquidity operations are carried out, and interest rates on liquidity operations (OMO, SLF, MLF) may be further reduced.

03 Will tax cuts be more?

The fiscal policy should be significantly stronger than in 2018, and the forecast is as follows:

● First, the deficit rate may be raised, exceeding the long-term threshold of 3%; p>

● Second, it may continue to reduce the corporate VAT rate by about two percentage points, and the incentives for SMEs may be greater;

● Third, fiscal expenditure may increase significantly, Investing more financial resources in improving the supply of social public goods, making up for shortcomings in domestic infrastructure investment, and promoting new regional integration development

● Fourth, it may further regulate the quota of local government special bonds. Local governments are encouraged to stabilize the growth of infrastructure investment by issuing special bonds.

04 What happens to the stock market?

There are four main reasons for the significant decline in the stock market in 2018: the sudden increase in Sino-US trade friction, the significant increase in US stock market volatility since October, the deepening of financial regulation, and the confidence of private entrepreneurs in the future. decline.

At present, the policy of the stock market is very clear, but the bottom of the policy is not equal to the bottom of the market. It is very likely that in the first half of 2019, the market may be in a process of continuous bottoming. The time of “grounding” may be longer than ever before!

The reason is that although the two domestic factors that have plagued the stock market in 2018 have improved, the two external factors that plague the stock market will continue to exist.

05 Will the house fall?

The regulation of the real estate market is not expected to be significantly relaxed. It is necessary to prevent the ups and downs from rising, and to avoid the continued rise of debt, and to prevent asset prices from continuing to fall.

06 How to promote a big change?

2019 is an important time window for actively accelerating structural reforms. The following four aspects of reform are the most important:

● One is the reform of state-owned enterprises with the core of mixed ownership reform, but private enterprises should be encouraged to invest in state-owned enterprise equity;

● Land transfer reform under the premise of controlling land acquisition risk through institutional design, in order to truly accelerate more inclusive urbanization;

● The third is to open up many state-owned capital-led services to private capital as soon as possible. Industry sectors, such as education, medical care, pension, telecommunications, etc.;

● The fourth is to reform the performance appraisal mechanism of local governments as soon as possible and to achieve a rematch between the central and local financial powers. The core of structural reform is to improve the enthusiasm of enterprises, residents, governments and other entities through various reforms, and on this basis to improve economic growth efficiency.

07 Where is the most profitable opportunity?

The interest rate bond market will continue to usher in the bull market in 2019.

Because the downward pressure is not small, the asset shortage of financial institutions is still serious, which further increases the attractiveness of interest rate bonds. However, given the stability of the exchange rate and the possible rise in interest rate bond issuance, the downside of risk-free interest rates in 2019 will be relatively limited, so the bull market will only be a moderate bull market.

In summary, the pattern of China's capital market in 2019 may be due to stock market turmoil and bond market differentiation. Risk aversion in the market is likely to dominate.

It’s hard to say. But no matter what, fasten the seat belt, 2019, we are here.