Will the hardships of the global stock market come to an end?

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Will the hardships of the global stock market come to an end?

2019-01-02 09:04:00 75 ℃


In 2018, it can be considered a bitter day for the global stock market. Looking at the world's major stock markets, basically showing a general trend.

Statistics show that as of December 31, 2018, US stocks Dow Jones fell 5.63% for the year, the Nasdaq index fell 3.88% for the year, and the S&P 500 index fell 6.24% for the year; The FTSE index fell 12.48% for the year, the German DAX index fell 18.26% for the whole year, and the French CAC index fell 10.95% for the year. As for the Asia-Pacific stock market, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 12.08% for the whole year, the Hang Seng Index fell 13.61% for the whole year, and the HSCEI fell 13.53% for the whole year.

In addition, for the A-share market, the market performance in 2018 is also not optimistic. Among them, as of December 31, 2018, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 24.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 34.42% for the whole year, the SME Index fell 37.75% for the whole year, and the GEM Index fell 28.65% for the whole year.

In general, the performance of the global stock market in 2018 is indeed inferior, and emerging market indices such as A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets also recorded a large proportion of declines, but the A-share market is still in In the state of significant decline throughout the year, the performance of the bear crown global is still evident.

For the just-concluded 2018, uncertainties and instability in the global financial markets have increased significantly. Among them, the most influential one is the acceleration of the Fed’s interest rate hike, and for the interest rate-sensitive stock market, when the market interest rate is obviously changed, it tends to show an increase in volatility. As for the financial market in 2018, it is also an important commemorative time point for the tenth anniversary of the global financial crisis in 2008. There are still many factors in the market, and the market has not yet gone out of the way.

The Fed’s interest rate continued to rise and the stock market volatility increased significantly, which aggravated the volatility of listed companies’ stock prices. From the performance analysis of the global stock market, the performance of emerging market stocks was more obvious. For the just-concluded 2018, it still belongs to the global stock market.

Can the hard days come to an end? In the final analysis, it is still inseparable from the changes in economic fundamentals and the ability of corporate profit growth. In fact, as long as the profitability of listed companies has not experienced a substantial turning point and the economic fundamentals have not experienced a substantial turning point, the supporting factors of the stock market performance still exist.

However, looking at the performance of the global stock market, many stock markets have already been caught in a bear market situation, and the US stock market, which is the leader of the global capital market, is also near the boundary between the bull and bear, although it has entered The trend of the technology bear market, but still can not be said to have completely entered the bear market situation.

In 2019, it is also a key point in time for both opportunities and risks. Among them, whether the US stock market will finally establish a bear market adjustment, whether the stock market will go down from historical highs and whether the Fed’s interest rate hike can be slowed down, etc., this series of phenomena also profoundly affects the running trend of the global stock market. Perhaps, for the global stock market, the hardships still cannot be considered to have been substantively terminated, and the risk of continuing adjustment may still exist.

As for the A-share market, although it has the advantage of historical valuation and historical average price, it has certain complexity for the A-share market, and it cannot be too much for 2019. Optimistic, uncertain factors still exist.

For example, factors such as the decline in economic growth, whether the real estate market will be substantially cooled, whether the bottom of the valuation of the stock market can be confirmed, the impairment factor of the listed company's goodwill, and the risk factors of the listed company's equity pledge And the restrictions on the sale of restricted shares of listed companies.

Among them, entering 2019, the most concerned issue for investors is whether the bottom of the valuation of listed companies can be finally confirmed.

Today, the Chinese stock market basically establishes the bottom of the policy, but it is still at the bottom of the market and the confirmation period of the valuation. During this period, the bullish policy of the stock market was intensively released, and the policy level basically confirmed the operation of the bottom of the policy. However, for the bottom of the market and the bottom of the valuation, there is a need for a process of continuous exploration and confirmation, for the bottom of the stock market. The road is still quite complicated.

However, under the influence of the slowdown in economic growth and the unfavorable factors of the previously leveraged bull market, the performance of some listed companies in 2019 is not easy to escape and the risk of face-changing. Perhaps, for the Chinese stock market to come to an end, it still needs to look at the bottom of the policy, the bottom of the market and the bottom of the valuation process, and when the policy bottom, the bottom of the market and the valuation bottom are substantially established, and even form a resonance, perhaps the stock The hardships of the market will gradually come to an end.