What is the trend of RMB in 2019?

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What is the trend of RMB in 2019?

2019-01-22 17:13:02 443 ℃

In 2018, the trend of RMB exchange rate can be described as "first strong, then weak, two-way fluctuation". In terms of the spot exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the US dollar, the fluctuation in 2018 was more than 7,300 basis points, which was the biggest record since the exchange rate merged in 1994.

Looking at another data, the largest decline in the relative high of the mid-year low of the RMB exchange rate was 9.9% in 2018, much higher than the levels of 5.9%, 7.1% and 6.5% in 2015-2017, respectively.

This is the performance of the gradual increase of RMB exchange rate elasticity.

In 2019, will the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate set a record again?

On January 21, Tan Yaling, President of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, attended the "Country is Forum-2018 Economic Situation Analysis Conference" sponsored by China News Agency, and said that the bilateral trend of RMB exchange rate in 2019 would continue, the fluctuation extent would be increased, and the exchange rate flexibility would be further enhanced.

Tan Yaling said that exchange rate management and the determination of the basic direction are particularly important in 2019. The central policy emphasizes that the RMB exchange rate is a bilateral trend and the market is normal.

"In the bilateral trend, what is the trend is the most critical." Tan Yaling said that at present, the RMB exchange rate is mostly pegged to the US dollar. The appreciation and depreciation of the RMB are all related to the US dollar. We should change the relatively passive situation as soon as possible and strengthen the construction of the independent system and mechanism of the RMB. The RMB has three basket currency exchange rate indices. How to effectively use the three basket currencies is particularly important.

As Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the Foreign Exchange Administration, wrote in his article, the floating range of the RMB has been continuously expanded and the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has been continuously enhanced.

At present, the daily fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in the spot inter-bank foreign exchange market has expanded to 2% of the intermediate price, and the fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB against other currencies has expanded to 3% to 10%.

With the gradual expansion of the floating range of the RMB exchange rate, the exchange rate elasticity is increasing, the function of the "automatic stabilizer" of the exchange rate in the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market is playing a better role, and the efficiency of resource allocation in the foreign exchange market is further improved.

Tan Yaling also pointed out that exchange rate is closely related to the basic economic environment and economic climate. The direction of RMB exchange rate is the key, and the key is to control the rhythm and range of exchange rate trend. In particular, she stressed that "control" is not "manipulation". Control itself is the responsibility of the central bank. It should not be regarded as abnormal behavior for the central bank to manage foreign exchange market and intervene in foreign exchange market.

From: Guo is a through train

Author: Xia Bin

Editor: Guo Lingjie