King's Research | How will Kechuang change the capital market in 2019?

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King's Research | How will Kechuang change the capital market in 2019?

2019-02-09 09:17:31 83 ℃
< section > < section > < section > < / section > < / section > < / section > < blockquote > < p > < strong > author < / strong > < strong > Guojun Research Products Center < / strong > < / P > < p > < strong > source < / strong > < strong > Guotai Jun'an Securities Research < / strong > < / P > < blockquote > < p > at the 6th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening Reform held on January 23, considered and approved the establishment of Kechuang in Shanghai Stock Exchange. The overall implementation plan of the pilot registration system and the "Opinions on the implementation of the pilot registration system in Shanghai Stock Exchange" have ushered in a significant milestone since last year. Although

is already on the cusp, there are different opinions as to how KSB will change China's capital market.

We find some "clues" from the event reviews and annual strategies of Guotai Jun'an research teams. In addition, the Guotai Jun'an new stock research team and the small and medium-sized market value team have been pushing forward in-depth research since last year, trying to find the most appropriate answer to this question at this stage.

01

The significance of Securities Creative Board to the investment business of securities firms

After the meeting of the Reform Committee, Guotai Jun'an Afribank team first gave an interpretation of the impact of the launch of Securities Creative Board on the investment business of securities firms.

Guotai Jun'an Non-Bank team believes that the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Branch and pilot registration system is one of the most important measures to deepen the capital market reform in 2009, and the registration system is more significant. The registration system means the market-oriented pricing mechanism, which will be the most important change in the capital market. A series of supporting rules will be introduced to ensure that the registration system of Shanghai Stock Exchange's creation board will land as soon as possible.

It is expected that the draft of the supporting system rules will be launched after the two sessions, and the first batch of science and technology companies will be launched as soon as the second quarter. Under the background of

registration system of Shanghai Stock Exchange, market-oriented pricing mechanism, underwriter and speculation will put forward new requirements on the pricing ability, sales ability and capital strength of investment banks. At the same time, the underwriting rate of listed companies on the board of Kochuang will be higher than that of traditional enterprises, which will urge securities companies to bid farewell to the role of issuing channel and price water for investment businesses in the whole industry. Peaceful practice quality has a positive impact on the formation of a more fair, orderly and reasonable price mechanism and healthy competition pattern in the industry.

In addition, the competition pattern of investment banks will be further centralized to the head securities firms, and the registration system will bring some performance increment and synergistic value to the participating head securities firms:

  1. underwriting sponsorship income: As an incremental reform, the rhythm of the first listed companies of Kechuang board will be controllable. It is expected that the number of the first issuers will be 10-15, and the first issuance scale will be less than 20 billion, and be underwritten according to 5%. The sales sponsorship rate will contribute 1 billion investment banks'revenue, which is 2.9% compared with the estimated total investment banking revenue of about 35 billion in 2008. The contribution to the whole industry's revenue is expected to be less than 0.5%, which is relatively limited;


  2. under the registration system, investment banks with strong pricing ability and sales ability will gain more voice in new stock issuance and distribution. In order to obtain stronger customer stickiness with participating institutions, it is conducive to play a greater synergistic value;

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  3. < li> < p> underwriter and speculative system, investment banks will obtain certain follow-up investment income, and the follow-up rules such as follow-up investment ratio are still to be clarified.

02

< p> < strong> three teams'impact on the original creation board outlook

< section > < section > < section > < section > < section > < section > < p > < strong > < Financial Engineering

< p > Guotai Jun'an Financial Engineering Team stated in the Five Annual Transactions of Guotai Jun'an Research Institute in 2019 that after the introduction of the original creation board There are differentiation effects in the industry board. On the one hand, it revaluates some companies which have the similar gene of science and technology, on the other hand, it impacts some traditional GEM companies.

Therefore, in 2019, when we look at the stocks of multi-branch stock creation pricing gene, this gene concentrates on three aspects:

Under the registration system, the requirements for information disclosure of listed companies are higher. Therefore, the financial and non-financial indicators disclosed publicly will be more important for investors to form a reference. Specifically, the popularity of enterprises, the proportion of R&D expenditure in total assets, the stage of R&D, the degree of actual transformation, the degree of market monopoly of new technologies, and the number of existing and potential customers may become important considerations for pricing of GEM.

Drawing lessons from the National Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan of the 13th Five-Year Plan and the Implementation Measures for the Regulation of the Domestic Issuance of Stocks or Depository Certificates and Listing of Pilot Innovative Enterprises, the main industries involved are networking, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, software and integrated circuits, high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedicine and other high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries. At the initial stage of

GEM, most of the listed companies are expected to be first-class market star companies, and the supply may be relatively scarce. Therefore, they look for the industrial chain where they are located and dig out the listing targets with industrial characteristics.

non-bank finance

Guotai Junan non-bank financial team in the annual strategy report entitled "Winter to Spring" indicated that the incremental reform of Kechuang board registration system is of great significance:

First, the market pricing mechanism, no less than the impact of stock reform on the market, is the capital market. Fundamental changes in the market;

Second, it is not only a major change in the capital market, but also a major impact on the competitive pattern of securities firms. The trend of investment banking capitalization is in-depth, which requires a high level of pricing capacity, sales capacity and capital strength of intermediaries.

The policy-side of the following securities industry will continue to exceed expectations, leading securities firms will benefit more.

SME market value

Guotai Jun'an SME market value team in the annual strategy report entitled "Value Deduction in the Middle Road, Leading the Way of Growth First" indicated that considering whether the short-term internal medicine company should be listed or will be dominated by stability, strictly control the number of listed companies and the number of listed companies. Rhythm, therefore, GEM is expected to benefit from the upgrade of valuation brought about by the introduction of GEM. <<<

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Existing Market differentiation

Kechuang board as an incremental market pilot reform, Guotai Junan new stock team is expected to be different from the existing market in company listing standards, investors, system .

Company: Focusing on technology-based enterprises, differentiated competition

The establishment of technology-based innovation board can guide domestic enterprises to pay attention to technology-based innovation, stimulate enterprises'enthusiasm for R&D investment, and improve the financing chain for the development of technology-based enterprises, provide financing platform for the development of many technology-based enterprises, and facilitate the withdrawal of PE, VC and other funds.

PE, VC and other investment institutions bear high risks in the early stage, and other enterprises can withdraw funds by listing on the GEM. On the one hand, they can switch the financing sources of science and technology enterprises. On the other hand, it is convenient for PE and VC to withdraw and support new start-ups. The financing chain of enterprises can be opened up and a positive cycle can be formed.

The support of science and technology and strategic emerging industries is conducive to the transformation and upgrading of China's economy and the realization of higher-quality development.

At present, one of the conditions for the listing of main board and small and medium-sized board is that the net profit of the last three accounting years is positive and totals more than 30 million yuan. The listing of GEM requires at least one year's profit, and the revenue is not less than 50 million yuan, or two consecutive years'profit and the net profit is not less than 10 million yuan.

Whether it is the main board or the GEM, it makes the lowest requirement for profit, and in practice, because there are more queuing enterprises, the actual financial indicators of enterprises are generally far higher than the lowest requirement.

Although there is no obvious demand for profit, there is a problem of imbalance between supply and demand due to too many listed companies and too few investors. <<

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Data Sources: The Business Rules of National Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Share Transfer System (Trial Implementation) and Guotai Jun'an Securities Research

Generally speaking, the listing standards of the main board and GEM are too high and the listing standards of the new three boards are too low. Therefore, it is expected that the Kechuang board will seek a balance between the two .

According to the public disclosure content of the Securities Regulatory Commission, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the speeches of relevant government officials, we believe that the requirement of listed companies on the GEM should be lower than that of the current GEM (considering profitability here, if not profitability, other indicators may be higher than the GEM requirement to compensate for the high tolerance of profitability indicators). In addition to

, there may be some changes in the ownership structure, which will greatly enhance the inclusiveness of companies that have not yet made profits and whose ownership structure does not meet the requirements of the main board and GEM listing. In conclusion,

In addition to the most basic operating time and corporate governance requirements of listed companies, we believe that we may regulate them from the following aspects:

1. Financial indicators

dilute profits, a number of optional criteria, pay attention to the trade-off between profits and other indicators, or introduce market value, R&D costs to the proportion of revenue and other indicators. 。

There are four listing standards for strategic emerging board, which are as follows:

  1. market value+cash flow+income

  2. market value+income

  3. market value+net profit

  4. market value+shareholder equity+total assets

  5. It is expected that the overall framework of the listing standards for Kochuang board will refer to the design of the new board and adopt a multi-index system. The body principle is to dilute profits, to provide a number of alternative criteria, and to improve other criteria while lowering one criterion.

    If a company's standard requires profit, it may have lower requirements for revenue; if a standard does not require profit, it may have higher requirements for revenue, market value, operating cash flow, etc.

    In addition, the listing criteria of Kechuang board may introduce R&D investment and other indicators to highlight the importance of Kechuang. Industry indicators < p > strong > 2. For the company industry, we believe that science and technology and strategic emerging industries are the main industries. Specifically, we may refer to the definition of

    pilot enterprises in the "Implementation Measures for the Regulation of the Domestic Issuance of Stocks or Depository Certificates and Listing of Pilot Innovative Enterprises":

    pilot enterprises should conform to the national strategy, master core technology and market recognition. High degree, belongs to the Internet