With this worry, will Hong Kong's today be Shenzhen's tomorrow?

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With this worry, will Hong Kong's today be Shenzhen's tomorrow?

2019-03-01 15:46:42 224 ℃

Source: Yuan Ganggong said (ID: yuangg173)

Author Yuan Ganggong

Toutu, June 14, 2011, construction workers painted the unfinished Beijing Base 100, Shenzhen's first tallest building. Visual China

recently released data show that Shenzhen's GDP in 2018 is higher than Hong Kong's in terms of the average exchange rate of US dollars. This means that for the first time in history, Shenzhen has become the largest city in South China, and the third city in Greater China after Shanghai and Beijing.

is less than a week away from March 5. Forty years ago, on March 5, 1979, the State Council approved the reorganization of Baoan County in Guangdong Province into Shenzhen City. It would take another year and a half before the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone was established on August 26, 1980. Full reckoning, Shenzhen is not yet forty years old. In less than 40 years, Shenzhen has become the third metropolis of the world's second largest economy from a small fishing village on the South China Sea. Its "miracle effect" can be seen all over the world. In terms of economic development alone, Shenzhen has always been regarded as China's first "model student". Compared with Beijing and Shanghai, Shenzhen has much more developed private enterprises, and a number of local star enterprises, such as Huawei, Tencent and BYD, have been born. The total number of listed companies ranks first in the national cities. These star companies have always been famous for their high salaries, and they have also made Shenzhen a hot spot for gold rush.

Shenzhen Stock Exchange's new site, Oriental IC

compared with powerful provincial capitals such as Guangzhou and Hangzhou, Shenzhen has the policy advantage of "Special Economic Zone". It is also one of the three major national financial centers juxtaposed with Beijing and Shanghai. A series of banks, securities, insurance institutions, and even matching professional service institutions such as accountants, lawyers, make Shenzhen have a large number of financial "gold collars" which are not comparable to any other provincial municipalities. Compared with the neighboring Hong Kong, Shenzhen has a fairly solid industrial base in addition to finance, real estate and trade. Shenzhen's manufacturing output and profits are among the top cities in the country. There are also quite developed IT industries, which have almost no place in Hong Kong.

If we add the pleasant coastal climate, tree-lined urban landscape and the openness and tolerance of Shenzhen people, who would not say that Shenzhen is the best city in China? From Ren Zhengfei to Wang Shi, from Ma Huateng to Wang Chuanfu, Shenzhen has always been a city of dreams. "Shenzhen Dream" is the "Chinese Dream". It symbolizes how big a business and dreams Chinese people can make, whether they start from scratch or are good at long-sleeved dancing. How similar is this to Hong Kong thirty or forty years ago?

In the 1970s, Lowen's Under Lion Mountain was widely circulated on the streets of Hong Kong.

"Let me write down the famous sentence of the immortal Xiangjiang River with hard work." Everyone knows that even Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing, started by selling plastic flowers. In those days, the Hong Kong Dream could be realized only by callous hands and feet and hard work. At that time, Hong Kong's housing prices were not so high, the class was not so solidified, and the manufacturing industry was still very developed... Everyone knows what happened afterwards. Today's Hong Kong, although GDP has been in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, is still the world's top financial center parallel to New York and London. The lights in Central are still shining. We use the golden collar of Global Pay to strategize our business in Greater China and even in the whole Asia-Pacific region. Beyond finance and real estate, there are only middle and low-end service modes such as hotels, catering, business chaos, tourism and so on.

"Pearl of the East", as the center of global resource allocation, has not faded. However, the extremely high ratio of house price to income, the shrinking living space and the Gini coefficient, the world's top, make this city more and more no longer the "dream city" of ordinary people. On this side of the Shenzhen River, house prices have long been an indispensable topic. Although Shenzhen has far more land for construction than Hong Kong, its total area is not more than twice that of Hong Kong, and its permanent population has already reached twice that of Hong Kong (i.e. its population density is close to that of Hong Kong). The contradiction of shortage of land for construction is no better than that of other big cities in China. Over the past few days, an article by Zhang Siping, former vice mayor of Shenzhen, on the analysis of Shenzhen's property market has been widely circulated. His article pointed out that Shenzhen is already the world's "most affordable building" city. High housing prices have caused most wage earners to be unable to afford housing. High rents have increased consumer prices and lowered the living standards of low-and middle-income people. Deteriorating business environment has made the manufacturing logistics industry close to hollowing out. High housing prices have lowered the attractiveness of Shenzhen's talent. The words

are reasonable and deeply rooted.

Shenzhen is indeed the most economically advanced city in the mainland of China. For the majority of residents who have "boarded" in Shenzhen, the soaring real estate market has brought about tremendous wealth effects. But can Shenzhen cross the river of "industrial hollowing" when Yinjian is in front of Hong Kong?

Chengzhong Village outside Guanwai, Shenzhen, is an important gathering place for industrial workers. Eastern IC

Shenzhen has one index ranking the top of the major cities in the country - the proportion of non-registered population in the permanent population. In Chengdu in 2017, non-registered population accounted for 11%; Hangzhou, 20%; Beijing, 37%; Guangzhou, 38%; Shanghai, 40%. The figure in Shenzhen is 65.3%. The number of

has long been interpreted positively. How many foreign non-registered residents a person can attract to live in is an important symbol of the attractiveness of the city. From the statistical data of six cities, it seems that the higher the proportion of non-registered population is, the more developed it is indeed. The question is, why is Shenzhen's non-registered population still a huge order of magnitude higher than Beijing and Shanghai's? Shenzhen has the lowest threshold in the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. As long as it is an undergraduate, it can settle down in Shenzhen. So many permanent residents in Shenzhen "come to Shenzhen and don't become Shenzhen people." The reason is simple. The vast majority of permanent residents in Shenzhen are migrant workers.

Today's Shenzhen has undergone tremendous differentiation. On the one hand, it is a wealthy group that is comparable to Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong. On the other hand, it is a rare industrial worker of super-large scale in a first-tier city. With the continuous "elitisation" of Shenzhen's economy, can the related industries and the employment population really not flow out? Where is the difference between Shenzhen and Beijing-Shanghai? Regular employment in Chinese cities generally comes from four types of units. The first is pure system (civil servants, teachers, doctors, institutions); the second is state-owned enterprises; the third is foreign-funded enterprises; and the fourth is private enterprises. In a rough line, the ownership attributes of enterprises are directly related to the income level of practitioners.

We can divide Chinese people's income into three grades according to rougher classification. The first level reaches 300% of the average social wage in the first-tier cities (currently, the average social wage in most of the first-tier cities is between 6,000 and 7,000 yuan, or more than 20,000 yuan if three times the average social wage), which is called "gold-collar". The second level is between 130% and 300% of the average social wage in the first-tier cities (about 120,000 yuan), that is, the relatively typical "white-collar" (also the relatively high income in "white-collar" cities). The third category, that is, the average wage of the first-tier cities is about or less, which is roughly equivalent to "blue-collar workers". (There are also many white-collar workers in this wage range, for the convenience of expression, they are generally referred to as "blue-collar". This paper discusses the distribution of legitimate public income without other extensions

in the working units as follows:

"golden collar" mainly includes the backbone employees and above in a few high-income industries such as non-silver finance, real estate, IT, etc; the senior managers and above in the institutional units (institutions, state-owned enterprises); and the non-high-income industries (i.e., excluding finance, IT and other high-income industries). Income industry) senior managers of private enterprises; key employees of top foreign enterprises.

"White-collar" mainly includes a small number of ordinary employees in non-bank finance, real estate, IT and other high-income industries; the majority of practitioners in the system units; ordinary employees in higher quality foreign enterprises.

Except for the above-mentioned people, most of the other people's income is at the ordinary level.

Obviously, Shenzhen has a lot of golden-collar jobs, and the financial, IT and real estate industries are relatively developed in Shenzhen. The number of other private listed companies is also in the leading position in the cities of the country. Looking at the "golden collar" alone, Shenzhen must be crushing Guangzhou as it is comparable to Beijing and Shanghai. However, if you look at "white-collar workers", the situation is quite different. I have analyzed many times that Shanghai and Guangzhou are marked by the heavy status of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises, while Shenzhen is relatively weak in foreign and foreign capital, and private enterprises are relatively developed. It is an economic question what role foreign capital and foreign capital play in the industrial structure. But from the perspective of salary and welfare, it is an indisputable fact that the salaries of state-owned enterprises and foreign enterprises are generally higher than those of private enterprises.

In addition to individual highly intelligent private enterprises such as finance and IT, industrial attributes and other multiple reasons determine that most of the private enterprises except the actual controllers and senior management, the income of the vast majority of employees is very general (Hangzhou has always been the capital city with the most developed private economy and listed companies in China, but for a long time, high-paying job opportunities are not many. For this reason, see What Alibaba Means to Hangzhou. < p > < p > but the units within the system (civil servants, institutions), large state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises are different (compared with most private enterprises). They usually have a relatively linear salary and ranking system (why foreign capital and state-owned enterprises have them is another big problem, let's just conclude here). As a result, these organizations have created the largest number of "white-collar" jobs.

Guangzhou Pearl River New Town and Guangzhou Tower. Eastern IC

Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have more white-collar jobs than Shenzhen.

Take the simplest industry as an example-banking, which is the most typical "white-collar" intensive industry. It is also a large state-owned bank such as the establishment of diplomatic relations between workers and peasants. In Guangzhou, there are provincial branches and municipal branches. Naturally, there are more banks than in Shenzhen. Procter & Gamble, Mars and other traditional foreign fast-disappearing brands have been headquartered in Guangzhou as China's regional headquarters, while in Shenzhen, there is little distribution (Shenzhen, of course, also has a lot of foreign investment, but mostly concentrated in the production sector to employ industrial workers rather than managers). Institutions of higher learning, primary and secondary schools, scientific research institutes, medical institutions and other institutions, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are not in an order of magnitude. In fact, civil servants, institutions and branches of large-scale central enterprises have nothing to do with the index of resource allocation ability, headquarters economic agglomeration and the number of Listed Companies in a city, nor are they active factors of economic efficiency in a city. But in the present