It collapsed again! Suddenly, with money in hand and prices soaring, the big country is on the verge of failure.

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It collapsed again! Suddenly, with money in hand and prices soaring, the big country is on the verge of failure.

2019-04-01 11:24:26 156 ℃

Zhigu Trend(ID:zgtrend)| Earthquake millet

This country has been closer to developed countries than any other developing country, but has suffered two economic crashes in the last six months. In order to stimulate the economy,

has been desperately printing money, releasing water, building infrastructure, and real estate has become one of its economic pillars. However, few countries in the world "die" like it. Once the president was 17 years old, he loved to send money to stimulate the economy and raised interest rates to the sky.

The once miraculous economy of the Middle East, which suffered a double-whammy of foreign exchange and stock exchange due to the Fed's interest rate hike last year, collapsed again six months later.

Last August, the Turkish lira plunged 18% in one day, and people were crazy to exchange lira for dollars and gold. In a twinkling of an eye, on the evening of March 27, Turkish bond and equity remittances attacked. At one point, the stock index plunged 7% to a new low since August last year, wiping out all gains in the year. Lira fell 2.6%, and overnight swap rates jumped to 1200%. What does it mean when the overnight swap rate soars? Simply put, are you leaving? I'll lock you up.

Turkish President Erdogan made a surprise move to prevent Lira from "falling sharply again" before the election and to prevent currency traders and foreign fund managers from short Lira. The cost of borrowing lira in the offshore swap market has risen by 1200% in a few days, after a carefully planned temporary monetary tightening (which is also severe) before the election.

< p> surprise, thorn, not excitement? "Don't worry, it's temporary," a Turkish official told a Bloomberg reporter who was rushed to hear the news. < p > < p > Turkey not only fell by itself, but also with a group of brothers and sisters from emerging markets. On Wednesday (March 27), emerging market currencies plunged again, with the Argentine Peso falling 1.9% against the US dollar, a record low of more than 15% this year; the South African rand, the Brazilian real and the Mexican Peso all fell more than 1% against the US dollar, and the Russian ruble 0.6% against the US dollar.

reacted most strongly to the Fed's rate increase, but it did not stop after the Fed announced a moratorium on the rate increase. What has happened in Turkey in the past six months?

01

Erdogan

lost completely. First thing, Turkey attacked the Kurdish armed forces in Syria again, which brought it down. After the Syrian Civil War broke out in 2011, the Kurdish armed forces who were bent on seizing power were supported by the US military and hardened up. Once successful, the Kurds in Turkey would also be foolish and threaten the Turkish regime directly. Therefore, the fight against Kurdish forces in neighbouring countries has become Turkey's political correctness, arousing the national pride of the majority of the people.

Since 2011, Turkey has provided arms support to the Syrian opposition "Syrian Liberal Army". After August 2016, Turkey, without the consent of the Syrian government, fought side by side with the opposition across the border and jointly attacked Kurdish armed and extremist organizations, and achieved certain results. However, the United States is not a fool either. Instead of simply supporting the Kurdish armed forces in Syria, it would be better to withdraw its troops and leave the mess in Syria to Turkey itself. Before leaving, Turkey was given a "courtesy" to withdraw its troops from the ancient Syrian city of Manbidi, which Turkey had always wanted, which was tantamount to surrendering the city to Turkey. Unexpectedly, Manbidi was the first to be captured by the regime of Syria's ruling Bashar.

p>Both the United States and Turkey are foolish. Turkey has no choice but to continue with the Kurdish armed consumption, but in fact, military intervention in Syria without the support of the United States military civil war is tantamount to a protracted war, Turkey is only burning money.

Therefore, since Turkish President Erdogan announced his march into Syria on January 20, 2018, this long-lasting saw has been eating into Turkey's economy.

Turkey's National Statistical Office released data on March 11 showing that economic output shrank by 3% in the fourth quarter of last year, confirming the significant impact of war participation on economic development.

The second thing, Saudi journalist Kashuji was killed at the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul, Turkey. < p > < p > a door, across the boundaries of yin and Yang of life and death. At noon on October 2, 2018, when Jamal Khashoggi, 59, stepped into the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, the plot had long been dormant.

Five days ago, Kashuji went to the consulate to get his divorce certificate. This time, he collected the documents according to the appointment time.

Before stepping into the consulate door alone, Kashuji may be on guard. He told his fiancee Sengiz, who was waiting outside, that if he did not come back, he would turn to an adviser of Turkish President Erdogan for help. After waiting for five hours, Sengiz did not wait for her fiance, and finally chose to call the police.

The following picture is as follows:

Turkey: What about people? < p > < p > Saudi Consulate: Walking through the back door. < p > < p > Turkey: Closed-circuit monitoring?

Saudi Consulate: Unfortunately, it's broken. In

("It's the darkest day in the world in 2018, you can say now"), the trend of Zhigu has disclosed in detail the cats and dogs behind Kashuji's murder.

It really hurts Turkey for three seconds. Sandwiched between Saudi Arabia and the United States, serious investigation is not, nor is it not, nor is it not, in international relations are also doing futile work.

The third thing, Turkey's local elections, which began on 31 March. At the end of this month, Turkey will have five-year local elections, but the financial markets can't resist the agitation. This is also the behind-the-scenes driver of Turkey's sudden triple killing of stock and debt.

Punished speculators by freezing liquidity, the "King of the Middle East" was indeed fierce.

The financial security battle began last year. Under U.S. sanctions, international agencies have short the Turkish lira, making it one of the worst currencies in the world in 2018.

And after the rebound in the lira exchange rate in early February, JPMorgan Chase's short-selling report plunged the lira by 8%. Turks have also dumped the lira assets over the past week, selling more than $4 billion.

The underlying causes of market selling of lira are related to Turkey's macroeconomic imbalance, persistent high inflation and the central bank's reluctance to raise interest rates further. Government interventions will not stop Lira from weakening.

A short Lira report can put a country's currency in jeopardy and even save it at the cost of a sharp fall in the stock market.

Erdogan wants to maintain his 17-year regime. In order to win the local elections at the end of March, he must take the initiative. Zero Hedge, a financial blog, said Turkey's "financial defense war" meant that the country was trying to cut off ties with foreign investors. "This is the death penalty for a country that has relied entirely on external capital inflows in the past 10 years."

Geopolitical, International Relations and Financial Wars, six months and three battles, Erdogan lost all the way. Where did all the money go?

Political strong people are not all financial experts. After 2006, Erdogan promoted the amendment of the Turkish Constitution to change the cabinet system to the presidential system. The following year, the constitution was amended successfully. Unexpectedly, the financial crisis came unexpectedly. In order to accumulate personal capital, Erdogan began to resort to the simplest crude method of printing money to stimulate growth. How much money did he print during his reign? Anyway, the total amount is really frightening --

Since 2003, Turkey's M2 has increased 24 times! This number is global, and only a few countries can compare it. Where did all the money printed in

go?

First of all, large-scale infrastructure. Erdogan has invested $135 billion in various infrastructure investments, such as railway construction, airports, canals, energy, etc.

Infrastructure has been given strong political significance by Erdogan. A common way for developing countries to show importance is to maximize and to dwarf all their competitors. The new airport has six runways, designed to deliver 200 million passengers a year and invest 12 billion US dollars.

European and American countries have certainly contributed a lot to Turkey's epoch-making capital construction. Europe and the United States, which recovered from the 2008 economic crisis, had a large influx of hot money into Turkey, which amounted to $103 billion from 2009 to 2017. Apart from large infrastructure projects, little of this money is diverted to the real economy.

One place is the best place to take on hot money. The price is soaring and the scenery is infinitely good. That's real estate.

Turkey's real estate price index has been exploding again and again while the economy keeps rising slowly. It has risen from less than 200 billion in 2008 to 120 billion today, more than six times in 10 years. Property is a pillar industry in Turkey, accounting for about 9% of GDP. Over the past few years, Turkey's housing prices have been soaring, reaching the top six in the Leifang global housing price index on several occasions, even ranking first in seven quarters before 2015-16, with an average annual increase of 18%. For the highest time, Turkish house prices rose by 18.9% a year.

The average house price in Istanbul is now about 15,000 RMB/m2, while that in the most expensive area is about 35,000 RMB/m2.

With the opening of the preliminary stage of water release, high inflation inevitably comes. Prices soared. Last July, Turkey's inflation rate reached a 12-year high of 15.85%. High inflation also makes it more difficult for Turkey to borrow money. By the end of 2017, Turkish bank interest rates had soared to 17.75%.

2017, Marie Owens Thomsen, global chief economist of Indosuez Wealth Management in Geneva, said: "Turkey may be the next country to disintegrate because it has all the elements that a failed country starts with."

Maybe Turkey has been doomed since a very early time. It just lacks a trigger puller. Trump came in 2018.

Trump announced that the tax on steel and aluminium in Turkey had doubled, becoming the last straw to crush Turkey.

03

Pursuing the Imperial Dream of the Past

All these are due to Erdogan's personal expansion. Over the past 15 years, Turkey has been following Erdogan's design.

< p> The economy, politics, society and many other aspects keep pace with each other. Turkey was the most secularized country in the Islamic world. After the victory of the Revolutionary War, Kemal, the father of Turkey, set the political goal of eliminating the Sudanese system, abolishing Khalifa, establishing a republic and practicing it all his life. < p > < p > but Turkey