Is the future predictable?

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Is the future predictable?

2019-04-07 08:02:40 18 ℃

Ren Zeping

Is the future predictable? This mysterious issue has long been controversial, sometimes as if we were talking about astrology. But when we begin to explore the world of economic cycles and the essence of human nature, it will obviously help us understand and even grasp the law of things'development, and make decisions more correct. There is no crystal ball in the world, but a few people do make a difference by striving to have the ability to understand the laws of things and the essence of human nature.
Growth and fluctuation are two major propositions in macroeconomic research and the most basic framework for economic situation analysis. Potential growth determines the equilibrium trend of economic operation, and economic cycle determines the fluctuation trend of economic operation. Just as spring, summer, autumn and winter, people have birth, age, illness and death, the cycle is objective. Although the length and depth of each cycle are not exactly the same, the economy always starts from prosperity to recession, and everyone is in it. "History will not repeat itself, but it always has the same rhyme." It is possible for us to use induction and deduction to infer the future under certain probability.

There are two main purposes in studying the economic cycle: macro-control and asset allocation. The core of macro-control is to analyze the economic situation and carry out counter-cyclical operation. By adopting fiscal policy and monetary policy, we can smooth the fluctuation and promote the smooth operation of the economy. Reflecting on the Great Depression gave birth to Keynesianism, Bernanke claimed to have found a way to avoid the Great Depression when he studied it. After 2008, the Federal Reserve adopted QE to re-inflate its currency, which opened the longest economic recovery in American history. Merrill Lynch investment clock is a classic method in the field of asset allocation. Through the analysis of two indicators of economic growth and inflation, the economic cycle is divided into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation. Bonds, stocks, commodities and cash are recommended in turn. The validity of the investment clock is verified by historical data of the United States and China.

Modern classical business cycle theory sums up several typical business cycles: Short-wave agricultural cycle (also known as cobweb cycle) reveals the production feedback cycle of agriculture to price, about one year; Short-wave inventory cycle (also known as Kitchen cycle) reveals the inventory adjustment cycle of the industrial and commercial sector, about three years; Long-wave equipment investment cycle (also known as Zhu Grazhou). Period) reveals the industry's cyclical investment activities in production equipment and infrastructure, about 10 years; the long-wave construction cycle (also known as Kuznets cycle) is mainly caused by housing construction activities, about 30 years; the ultra-long-wave innovation cycle (also known as Kandraev cycle) is caused by the convergence and ebb of innovation activities, about 60 years.

Business cycle operation includes driving factors and amplification mechanism. Initial driving factors include solar activity, over-investment, insufficient effective demand, innovation, policy shocks, etc. The amplification mechanism includes multiplier accelerator, collateral credit, money accelerator (i.e. pro-cyclical behavior of commercial banks), emotion and so on.

In the field of economic cycle research, there are many brilliant stars and a hundred schools of thought contending, and various schools and theories have emerged. Keynes emphasized effective demand and considered private investment as a variable and unstable factor in the whole cycle. Keynes opposed the classical hypothesis of clearing the product and employment markets. He believed that because of the rigidity of wages and prices, it was difficult for the market to achieve self-equilibrium. Therefore, it was necessary to intervene with the help of the government's "tangible hand".

Schumpeter emphasizes innovation and entrepreneurship. An innovation stimulates large-scale investment through diffusion, which leads to economic prosperity. Once investment opportunities disappear, it turns into recession. Because the introduction of innovation is not continuous and stable, but high and low, which produces the economic cycle. More importantly, Schumpeter synthesizes the arguments of predecessors and points out that the economic cycle is composed of many cyclical forces: the Kandraziev cycle of about 60 years, the Jugla cycle of about 10 years, and the Kitchen cycle of about 3 years. This is the earliest systematic exposition of the economic cycle.

Dario emphasizes the debt cycle and believes that the economy operates like a machine. Most economic activities are driven by three major forces: the trend line of productivity growth, the long-term debt cycle and the short-term debt cycle. The main fluctuation around the trend is due to the expansion and contraction of credit, that is, the credit cycle. Short-term debt cycles, also known as business cycles, are mainly controlled by central bank policies, with tightening policies when inflation is too high and/or growth is too fast, and easing policies when the opposite conditions exist. Long-term debt cycles arise when debt grows faster than income and currency until debt servicing costs are too high. Deleverage is a process of reducing the debt burden. The process of de-leveraging usually takes the following combinations: 1) debt relief, 2) austerity, reduced expenditure, 3) redistribution of wealth, and 4) monetization of debt. Depression is a period of economic contraction under deleveraging. Depression usually ends with the printing of money by the central bank to monetize large amounts of debt. Good deleveraging should be mild inflation deleveraging, not hyperinflation deleveraging or deflationary deleveraging. < p > < p > Soros, Buffett, Schiller and others attach importance to human nature. Although times have changed, human nature is as old as mountains. There are collective irrationality in many areas, people are too optimistic and confident in economic prosperity, think that the good days will continue, their ability to make correct decisions is superior to others; while in economic recession, people fall into pessimism, think that the economic downturn will continue and doubt their decision-making ability. The collective irrationality of human society, herd-like herding mentality and the short-term trend of looking at the future of growth have never disappeared, which obviously drives and enlarges economic fluctuations. Therefore, in the fields of economic operation, stock market, real estate market, exchange rate market and other social fields in which human beings participate, there exists obvious herding effect widely, and the result is bound to be "rebirth in despair, rise in hesitation, collapse in madness", which starts all over again. Buffett said, "Greed when others are crazy, crazy when others are greedy." Find good stocks in companies that are below their intrinsic value, Buy and hold. Soros's reflexivity theory holds that people's understanding of the world is limited. When "investment bias" is constantly strengthened in interaction and produces group influence, it will promote the market to develop in a single direction, and eventually it will inevitably reverse. Mr. Zhou Jintao is a pioneer and outstanding representative of domestic economic cycle research. He dares to give clear opinions and has made outstanding achievements by applying theory to practical prediction. He has left behind the classic saying that "life depends on Kangbo" and "life is a Kangbo". Zhou Jintao's precise forecast of commodity market in 2016, his forward-looking judgment of liquidity crisis in 2018, and his remarks that 2019 is the next life opportunity have all been verified one by one. He thought, "This is to use Kandradyev's theory for life planning. During the 60-year campaign, there will be three real estate cycles, fluctuating once in 20 years, two fixed asset investment cycles in one real estate cycle and once in 10 years. A fixed asset investment cycle consists of three inventory cycles. So, your life is a Kangbo, three real estate cycles, nine fixed asset investment cycles and eighteen inventory cycles. This is the process of human life. "Cycle will eventually be disillusioned, but before that we will still experience a Kangbo. Although reincarnation is eternal, the essence of cycle is the pursuit of process. Therefore, the core of cycle research is the description of process. If we do not cherish the process, half-understanding of cycle can only sink forever." "The magic of periodicals is that you know when they are coming, but when they really come, they still make you feel exciting." Through these words, people can feel his firm belief and open-minded character.

After predicting that "5000 is not a dream" in 2014, Mr. Zhou Jintao and I both judged that China's economy would bottom out in the second half of 2015 and put forward "L-shaped economy". At that time, Zhou Jintao put forward that in 2016 "commodities will rebound at the annual level". In my opinion, he put forward "house price doubled", "real estate cycle looks at population in the long run, land in the medium term, and finance in the short run". Mr. Zhou Jintao's research framework and experience in the fields of cycle, commodity and market strategy are becoming more and more mature, and he has become a good mentor and friend of his peers. It's a pity that God is jealous of talent. What is the significance of life and research? We have come, loved, hated, and passed away like the wind. Nothing ever happens, nothing goes. Give up all persistence, the heart has no place to live. Fortunately, Mr. Zhou Jintao's colleagues and disciples edited and published his previous research results, leaving a valuable legacy. In the face of the future, our understanding of the world, including human beings themselves, is very limited. What is more difficult is the unity of knowledge and practice and the ability of execution. Some people have achieved the ultimate in simple things and harvested an era; others claim to be masters, but always look on the wall. Life is a great journey of the soul and an endless exploration.

There are seven stages in life: babies waiting to be fed, schoolchildren with red faces, lovers singing moustache, soldiers with long beards, generals who have fought hundreds of battles, politicians wearing glasses, and sages who return to the real world. What is the ultimate meaning? Mind is reason, knowledge and action are in one, things are tempered, and conscience is created.

Each of us views the world as a shadow of our own inner self-cultivation. You see what you believe in.