These 23 cities have a 20% rise in house prices, and the possibility of policy tightening is increasing. Will it be warned?

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These 23 cities have a 20% rise in house prices, and the possibility of policy tightening is increasing. Will it be warned?

2019-04-25 21:30:08 324 ℃

Sino-Singapore longitude and latitude client on April 25 (Xue Yufei) since the Spring Festival in some cities, the phenomenon of property market warming has attracted the attention of all parties. According to a report released on May 25 by the Yiju Research Institute, the average transaction price of new commercial residential buildings in 100 cities monitored by the Institute rose 13.1% in the first quarter of this year due to the good real estate market in March, an increase from January to February.

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The Institute classified the annual average price increase of newly built commercial residential buildings in the above 100 cities at the beginning of the year, and delimited the price increase greater than or equal to 20% as the "house price overheating" interval, with 23 cities such as Zhongshan, Guangzhou and Shanghai entering the interval. Yan Yuejin, director of research at the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the Ministry of Housing and Construction has already warned cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter, which may mean that some cities with excessively high house prices in the second quarter are facing the possibility of policy tightening. < p > < strong > 100-city house prices increased year-on-year < / strong > < / P > < p > 100-city house prices report issued by Yiju Research Institute shows that in the first quarter of this year, the average transaction price of new commercial housing in 100 cities was 13685 yuan / square meter, up 13.1% year-on-year. At present, house prices continue to rise, compared with the 12.0% increase in January to February, the first quarter of the increase has expanded.

分城市类型看,一季度,4个一线城市新房成交均价为43316元/平方米,同比上涨19.3%。 The average price of new houses in 32 second-tier cities was 13649 yuan per square metre, up 9.3% year on year. According to the report, compared with the first-tier cities, the current growth curve of second-tier cities is not too big, but considering that there are more preferential policies such as follow-up talent purchase in second-tier cities, it will drive the increase of market turnover, which will make the price rise rebound possible.

reported that in the first quarter, the average transaction price of new commercial housing in 64 third and fourth-tier cities was 10505 yuan/square metre, up 8.8% from the same period last year. Yan Yuejin said to Sino-Singapore longitude and latitude that the year-on-year increase of house prices in the third and fourth tier cities is far less than the high level in 2017, and has clearly stepped out of the "too fast rise" range.

Report classifies the annual average price increase of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities at the beginning of the year, and divides it into five areas: overheating, overheating, reasonable, undercooling and undercooling, that is, "overheating" when the price increase is greater than or equal to 20%; "overheating" when the price increase is greater than or equal to 10%, less than 20%; and "overheating" when the price increase is greater than or less than 10%; and "overheating" when the price increase is greater than or less than 10%. "Reasonable house price" interval; the "cold house price" interval is where house price increases are greater than or equal to - 10%, less than 0%, and the "supercooled house price" interval is where house price increases are less than - 10%.

report shows that 23 of the 100 cities in the first quarter entered the "house price overheating" range, of which Zhongshan's house price rose the most, reaching 61%, Guangzhou's second largest increase, 40% year-on-year. Nantong, Zhenjiang and Hohhot are over 30%. Shanghai, Wuhan, Changsha, Xi'an and Chengdu are also listed as "house price overheating". On April 19, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction warned cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter of 2019, demanding that all localities resolutely implement the decision-making plan of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and always adhere to the orientation that houses are used for living, not for speculation, focusing on the control objectives of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations. Strengthen the responsibility of the main body, maintain the continuity and stability of the policy, prevent big ups and downs, and ensure the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. According to Yan Yuejin,

cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices may be warned, which may mean that some cities with excessively high house prices in the second quarter will face the possibility of policy tightening. In recent years, various tightening policies have increased, such as the policy of tightening the withdrawal of provident fund in Xi'an, discussing the target system of annual house price increase in some cities, setting price limits in Suzhou land auction, etc. It is expected that similar tightening policies will increase in the follow-up, and some will be reflected in rectifying the order of real estate transactions. The data of

also show that five cities have entered the "house price supercooling" zone, including Zhaoqing, Langfang, Putian, Quanzhou and Sanya. According to the report,

there are many reasons for the phenomenon of house price undercooling, such as the excessive concentration of transaction projects in suburban markets, the administrative depression of new house prices, and the continuous decline of market transactions. < p > < strong > 13 cities meet the standard of "accelerating land supply"< / strong > < / P > < p > Xiaoyangchun of the real estate market, which has been reflected in the data. According to the "100 City Housing Inventory Report" issued by Yiju Research Institute on March 24, 2019, the volume of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities monitored by Yiju Research Institute was 49.15 million square meters, an increase of 69.2% annually and 20.2% year-on-year. < p > < p > trading cap, led to inventory decline. By the end of March, the total inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities was 45.1 million square meters, down 0.7% year-on-year and up 3.0% year-on-year, according to the report. From February to March 2019, the housing market was better than expected, which led to the decline of Baicheng inventory. However, given that the current housing market recovery is partial and temporary, it is expected that inventory will continue to climb in the second quarter. < p > < p > In March, 51 cities showed a year-on-year increase in inventory. Among them, inventory in Huizhou, Fuzhou and Langfang increased faster, reaching 104%, 82% and 79% respectively. The increase of inventory scale in these cities is related to factors such as large supply scale in recent years. Among the 100 cities, 49 cities showed a year-on-year decline in inventory, of which Jinan, Dandong and Zhengzhou had a larger decline, with 42%, 34% and 24% respectively.

The relevant departments have also given guidance on the changes of inventory in various cities. The Ministry of Natural Resources issued a circular on April 17 to adjust and set the regulatory objectives of "five categories" (significant increase, increase, balance, appropriate reduction, reduction and suspension) of residential land supply in 2019. Among them, land supply should be stopped if digestion period is over 36 months; land supply should be reduced appropriately for 36 to 18 months; land supply level should be maintained for 18 to 12 months; land supply should be increased for 12 to 6 months; land supply should be increased significantly and accelerated for less than 6 months. According to the report,

According to the division of the Ministry of Natural Resources, of the 100 cities, there are two cities with digestion cycles of more than 36 months, including Sanya and Dachang. The digestive cycle is 36-18 months in 14 cities, including Xiamen, Zhangzhou and other cities. The digestive cycle ranged from 18 to 12 months in 33 cities, including Changzhou, Lanzhou and other cities. There are 38 cities with a digestive cycle of 12 to 6 months, including Jingdezhen, Xi'an and other cities. There are 13 cities with digestive cycle less than 6 months, including Zhongshan, Nantong, Rizhao, Qingyuan, Liuzhou, Nanning, Changde, Yangzhou, Ganzhou, Hefei, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and Chengdu. According to Yan Yuejin,

based on this kind of policy environment, it is expected that the second quarter market transaction will face new resistance, which will also affect the inventory degrading situation of the corresponding cities. Relevant market participants need to pay attention to the impact of the expansion of the decommissioning cycle. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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