Ye Tan: 10 of the most promising cities in China (down)

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Ye Tan: 10 of the most promising cities in China (down)

2016-10-25 11:52:35 576 ℃

6, Luoyang

I have been praised the rapid development of Zhengzhou, Henan, and now have to talk about the other less rapid development of Luoyang City, Henan, the development is relatively slow.

Before shipping times, Song Dynasty, Luoyang is a city of economic Chinese, but to the railway era, the economic center gradually shifted to Zhengzhou, with the Zhengzhou high speed rail, aviation, highway hub built, Matthew effect caused by the situation is strong, now in terms of infrastructure investment, population flows, Luoyang can compared with Zhengzhou. Luoyang is no longer a contempt for the culture of Zhengzhou is no use.

Although the overall GDP growth in Luoyang is good, and the ranking is not low in the country, Henan is also the only one in Zhengzhou. But only from a GDP growth data can be seen, Luoyang is a can not find the direction of the city, is an addiction in the history of the city, there is no ability to make the history of life.

2005 Zhengzhou GDP was 165 billion yuan, compared to 731 billion 520 million yuan in 2015, 111 billion 150 million yuan, Luoyang and Zhengzhou, but not much difference between, to only 350 billion 880 million yuan in 2015, an increase of 3.15 times 10 years, even lower than Kunming, Lanzhou, Changsha.

In 2015 the Luoyang service industry development in the province of Luoyang is relatively low, the first industrial added value of 23 billion 639 million yuan, an increase of 5%; second of the industrial added value of 174 billion 66 million yuan, an increase of 8.9%, the contribution to economic growth rate of 56.6%; third of industrial added value of 153 billion 170 million yuan, an increase of 10.3%, the contribution rate of economic growth is 40% pull, GDP growth of 3.7 percentage points, the growth rate ranks thirteenth in the province, lower than the provincial average of 0.2 percentage points. This shows that the local market segments are not developed.

In the new high-speed rail plan, Luoyang is also more miserable, according to the "long-term railway network planning" (2016~2025) plan, call South Railway from Shanxi Jincheng to Henan, turned a corner to the East, Jiaozuo, Zhengzhou and Zheng Wangao iron connected, Luoyang could be avoided after Jiyuan, the folk, the line shows strong appeal, less direct costs from western Luoyang, but Luoyang was temporarily abandoned, planning and the province economic status decreased synchronously.

At present, Luoyang, Zhengzhou, the population of, the number of students from the point of view, from 639 thousand and 500 in 2010 down to 582 thousand and 800 people. Overall, these five years the number of pupils in city decline is normal, but the population of Henan, Nanyang City, Zhengzhou large number of students are still rising, in essence, Luoyang is a resource and talent out of the city.

Luoyang has a wealth of Zhengzhou is not the same as the same order of magnitude. 2015 per capita foreign currency deposits in foreign currency is 62 thousand yuan, while Zhengzhou is 176 thousand and 990 yuan, although compared with other prefecture level cities, Luoyang is the highest, but the gap will be smaller and smaller.

In the future, Luoyang can only do the characteristics of the city, while maintaining the location of the second cities in Henan province. This is not easy, you know, Zhengzhou and Kaifeng city group to enhance the opening position, not Luoyang what thing. For Luoyang, the increase in the status of industrial planning, identify the direction of the future, vigorously develop the service industry, is a major event. First to improve the level of inter city railway, and linked to Zhengzhou.

Fortunately, in March this year, the Luoyang Municipal Development and Reform Commission in response to the concerns of users, said the line in Jiaozuo to form 2 routes, transit Luoyang and Zhengzhou.

7, Nanchang

Nanchang is a city made me more tangled, the future is not dark, compared with the small Midwestern city, Nanchang development is good, is also the domestic prices once Honggutan growth place.

The city is estimated to be causing some surprise, if some temporary city in Northeast Nanchang is a past hope, then with the whole economy inside ailment and immunity strong city.

In the Yangtze River Delta city group which is relatively backward in the important cities. But in the whole of the Yangtze River in Nanchang Province, the capital of the foundation is not strong, the future development model is not clear.

From 2005 to 2015, Nanchang GDP rose from 100 billion 770 million to 400 billion, 10 years increased by 3.97 times, slightly higher than Taiyuan City, less than 6 times Changsha around Hangzhou, Nanjing City, and the gap between the total greater.

No city in Jiangxi province can compete with Nanchang, Nanchang's population inflow, from 2010 to 2015, the resident population of five years increased by about 260 thousand, but the number of pupils is true in fallen from 1047 in 2010 to 904 in the primary school primary school in 2015, the number of students decreased from 436 thousand and 600 to 406 thousand and 700, and the loss of Jiangxi entrepreneur talent the province is more serious.

This is because in the southeast, Jiangxi is a traditional agricultural province, far away from the sea, the small peasant economy and the thought is relatively heavy, and officialdom ecology and folk credit ecology is not good. I have a friend in the vicinity of Nanchang on a large investment when, and the leaders of the time to promote the planting related. Environmental protection is a good thing, Nanchang is also the country's first batch of 6 pilot cities of low carbon, but the corruption of subsidies makes green clothes become green.

From Wuhan to Nanchang in 2030 Changsha, planning is not too high iron developed areas, and Nanjing, Wuhan and other city cannot be mention in the same breath. In the East China city circle, from the current city group cohesion, only from the Nanjing radiation to Hefei, and Nanchang is the next wave of economic transition radiation, there is no sign of fundamental changes.

8, Wenzhou

What, Wenzhou, is there a mistake? This is one of the birthplace of Chinese market economy, is one of the most affluent areas of China, Wenzhou people all over the world, Wenzhou real estate group, now Wenzhou stocks have helped the people of Wenzhou, Chinese Jews, also has the most China financial awareness group, said the Wenzhou prospects, there is something wrong.

Not wrong. Wenzhou people have a prospect, does not mean that Wenzhou has a prospect.

Wenzhou has its characteristics, which has become the source of its development, and now it has been the development of Wenzhou.

First of all, the lack of planning in Wenzhou City, infrastructure is not good, before this picture is commendable, the small government to develop the big market. When a city develops to a certain stage, at least that this lack of ability, planning and development or, which help rich people do not get the support of the system, can to the healthy development of excessive planning. Now, regardless of Wenzhou or real estate speculators, to fierce money to earn fast money, which shows the existence of fear in Wenzhou, in order to avoid the future of the non - Test risk. Such a panic is very detrimental to the development of the local economy.

Secondly, the people of Wenzhou circle is relatively closed, as previously based credit circle of mutual support is commendable, we now know, once a large shift of the economic cycle, the credit guarantee system of villagers from Rulvpingdi into huoshaolianying, a fire can burn off guarantee system. Wenzhou financial innovation has been so much attention, but so far, Wenzhou's financial innovation has not achieved significant results. This has both external factors, but also the factors of local cultural foundation.

Either marriage or other, Wenzhou to form airtight circle, a bit like Chaoshan business to help. In the market economy has just started when it can form a cohesive force, but to a certain stage of development, only Shenzhen, Beijing this city of immigrants to the most outstanding talent force, and in the local Wenzhou is very difficult to do, Wenzhou is an open city of immigrants.

Some Wenzhou people in the field can be one in a million, I know some very good entrepreneurs in Wenzhou, but to the local, but because of shallow water development is not too big. They migrated to New York, Paris, and many of them on a large scale.

Third, Wenzhou people have money, the earth people know. But from the point of view of foreign currency deposits in Wenzhou in 2015, 105 thousand and 100 yuan per capita, far better than Shaoxing and Ningbo, with Tangshan city the not far, Ningbo per capita of the foreign currency deposits of 206 thousand and 700 yuan, Shaoxing 139 thousand and 900 yuan, Jinhua 126 thousand and 300 yuan, to Wenzhou, the capital flows where? Why can not precipitate in the local? Why the rich, still apply these neighbors against face job?

Look at education, although Wenzhou has 8 universities, only half of Ningbo, Jiaxing also has 10, another problem is that Wenzhou's money why not accumulate enough resources for education in thirty years, as the future economic development?

Wenzhou is such a city, shows that in the traditional culture of deregulation, the city can achieve the market development prospects. At the same time also shows that there is no public culture, regulation and culture as the support, in a relatively closed economic circle, how the funds will operate, where people will go.

Wenzhou hopes to return to the warm, they have achieved some results, but the local environment, as well as the local economy is not distinctive, making the return of warm business, more based on feelings, rather than based on rational.

9, Tangshan

Looking for different cities of statistical data, statistical data in detail and looking for the difficulty, is very reflected in the government's service awareness. Tangshan belongs to the humble city data, from the statistical bulletin, 2005 2010, unable to find the number of students and other data, generally speaking, the more detailed data of the city, the higher the level of the market, some areas of Hebei have been missing data.

In many indicators, Tangshan city in Hebei province is not backward, because of Tangshan's industrial base, so that the transformation of Tangshan road is especially arduous. From 2005 to 2015 ten years, Shijiazhuang's GDP grew 2.94 times, Tangshan's growth 3.01 times higher than in Shijiazhuang. Similarly, the population of the city, Tangshan in 2015 per capita foreign currency deposits of 95 thousand and 600 yuan, although only 1/10 of Beijing, but it is the highest in the province of Hebei.

Tangshan ordinary university has 7, in Hebei province after Shijiazhuang and Baoding, the number of graduate students are many, in 2015 24 thousand and 980, as one of the important industrial base of Hebei, there should be some talent aggregation.

Logically speaking, Tangshan is a city in Hebei province strong economic foundation, why the prospect of some confusion, the important reason is the localization process in the integration of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, this is Beijing and Tianjin in the Northeast gateway city, from the Beijing is barely enough for an hour in Tangshan city circle, but overcapacity is real, no any policy can help Tangshan transition as soon as possible.

What the past did not exist the capital city of Shijiazhuang to find a sense of presence, not to mention Langfang, near Beijing on location, gain a lot of dividend in Beijing resources spillover, now is not the black light, but backed by a good shade tree.

What is the location of Tangshan? Tangshan cultural tourism, eco-tourism, green industry, modern logistics industry, these are good. The key is to iron and steel as the leader of the heavy chemical industry how to do?

Whether or not the integration of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Tangshan iron and steel overcapacity is the real deal, as long as involve upgrading of the manufacturing industry, involved to reduce excess production capacity, is the most difficult. According to Hebei province to resolve the overcapacity in the steel task arrangement, 2013 to the end of 2017, Tangshan City needs clean Yajian iron and steel production capacity of 28 million tons and 40 million tons, respectively, Hebei province Yajian production capacity of 42% and 59.5%, only from the data we can see that the pressure of Tangshan City. This is not over, to know that in the process of the core area of Beijing and Tianjin, the compression process, where the production capacity will be transferred to Shougang? Those who focus on the employment of the industrial population how to do?

Modern research and development, modern logistics, not to talk about the line. Don't forget the good news that Caofeidian oilfield, what now? The good news, revealing some local eating stimulants, lack of practical news.

10, Dalian

Dalian is the most I have seen the market atmosphere of the northeastern city, but by other local city zone has been exhausted, the complex situation in Northeast Asia involved.

Before going to Dalian, the local people are full of spirit, see as the economic development of the northeast city of pride, and now, this pride has gone, Dalian is lagging behind local friends will be admitted in recent years, in the memory of rapid economic growth at the same time, look forward to development prospects of Pu District unlimited, as the largest the positive factors hedge against future risk.

Dalian was selected not because of poor economic, but the future is not clear enough; not the economic foundation is not good, but there are several years lost the direction of development.

As an important port in Northeast Asia, Dalian could become an important port in Northeast Asia economic and trade, but once the foreign divestment is more serious, until recently the foreign investment data was improved, mainly concentrated in the New District, is a strong investment results, do not know the momentum can not be stable. At one time, the prevalence of sub yuan, the Northeast Asian economy has a trend, which is a great positive for Dalian. Today, the geopolitical imbalance in the northeastern city of Dalian is unlikely to be affected by the sea.

1 to August, Dalian Pu District the actual use of foreign investment $829 million, accounting for nearly 40% of the total use of foreign capital in Dalian city; 22 capital projects, the total investment of $1 million 524 thousand and 630, an increase of 870%; a new batch of 42 foreign-funded enterprises, a total investment of $1 million 472 thousand and 520, an increase of 44.5%.

There are no statistics on the number of primary school students in Dalian, but from the statistical bulletin, the number of primary school students fell from 912 in 2010 to 745 in 2015, and the number of primary school students is declining, but it seems that the situation is better than in Shenyang. From the perspective of the number of higher education, the five decline in the number of years, rather than Shenyang, but the number of graduate students in Shenyang and Dalian higher talents more, be roughly the same, the maritime university has an important position in the country, to see how to retain talent.

Dalian's GDP rose from 215 billion yuan in 2015 to 773 billion 160 million yuan in 2005, an increase of about 3.6 times, while the same period in Shenyang from 2084.17280.5 billion yuan. Can not be ignored is that in 2015 the resident population of more than Dalian, Shenyang, about 1000000, Dalian's population is small and GDP ranked first in the province, as the location of the economic center of Liaoning is self-evident.

Dalian's per capita wealth is slightly higher than Shenyang, Benxi and other than the city of more than two times higher than that of the northeast, is truly the most affluent areas, unfortunately, from the consumption data is not high, there may exist more serious polarization between the rich and the poor. The most worrying is that Dalian can spread the drawbacks of other northeastern cities, the city's service industry is not enough subdivision, leading to the lack of strong driving force in the city's development of the mainland. And, with the gathering of the provincial capital cities, and Dalian compete for resources, the situation may be exacerbated.

Around the characteristics of Dalian industry, ocean shipping, pricing, services and other industrial chain, it is likely because the city industry chain segments is not enough, as well as the surrounding strong non market environment, can not get a great development. Dalian is the wind vane of the northeast economy, if Dalian can rise, can drive a development, if Dalian are not developed, the other regions can be imagined.

It must be emphasized that the same is the northeastern city of the future, the same confusion, different city is not the same, Dalian is better, from the consumer and government rent, to the market attention, Harbin times, Changchun lower down, other city is not listed.


This series of this preliminary come to an end, the other candidate cities also have, such as Huainan, Zhuzhou and other places, but taking into account the typical, selected the city. Our objective evaluation, we hope that the future of China's urbanization is more successful, and now is the era of China's urban circle and the restructuring of the industry, the need for more geographical. If possible, in the future we will choose one or two cities and industries, showing the transformation of the vast space.