Wu Xiaobo + Luo Zhenyu: 2017, the biggest opportunities and pitfalls2017-01-08 11:13:19 1027 ℃
On the evening of December 31, 2016, Luo Zhenyu, founder of the series of thoughts in Shenzhen, held a "friend of time" speech in, tells the story of the 5 black swans. And on the consumer upgrade, investment areas, Wu Xiaobo also made a prospect, predicted the 8 changes in 2017.
Don't talk about quality, right and wrong can we find the essence of thinking, in the words of the speech which believe this article allows you to open the door to 2017 better.
Luo Zhenyu New Year speech excerpts
5 black swans
2016, the biggest feature is that a lot of things around the world only to see a drop of boots. What kind of other boots, can not fall off, when to fall, how to fall? Now all don't know.
According to the evolution of each competitive environment, enterprises have different business focus, but if we can seize 20% key points, you can find a fulcrum to pry the entire enterprise development, positioning is a pivot for the development of business leveraging.
2016 is full of God turning, AlphaGo win chess world champion Li Shishi; British exit; Trump won the US presidential election of 2016. This is the 2016. All over the world, a lot of things just fall off a boot. What kind of other boots, can not fall off, when to fall, how to fall? Now all don't know.
A lot of people this year because of the uncertain environment, and feel overwhelmed. But entrepreneurs will not. The world of entrepreneurs is unique. They do not feel the ethereal good and bad, only the specific problems and specific methods of their own.
Therefore, the following trends and changes, you should not be overlooked as an entrepreneur, in 2017, the specific situation".
2016 the most important irreversible change is the end of the demographic dividend. The advantages of large companies are increasingly consolidated. Entrepreneurial market is popular with a surrogate business". Getting more and more difficult, time will become the ultimate battlefield of business.
Time battlefield, become a particularly important black swan.
First of all, time will become the ultimate battlefield of the business; that is, WeChat's Zhang Xiaolong dare to say that WeChat has a basic value, a good product is running out of. Where other entrepreneurs can be so proud. Your business is big, you can not get the user's time, your future is precarious.
Second, consumers spend more than just money, they pay for every consumer time; in early 2016, the Chinese film screen is 30 thousand; by the end of the year soared to 40 thousand. But the entire movie box office from last year's 44 billion only rose to only this year's 45 billion.
In addition to industry subsidies to stop, the more important reason is that the film is a time to pay for consumer goods. All industries must be vigilant, not you do not work hard, not your industry is not worth, nor is your price is not low enough, but you get too much user time, we can not afford to pay.
Third, business opportunities from space to time.
This round of consumer upgrades is not to show off, but the experience of goods. All experience is essentially a time phenomenon. The upgrading of consumption, people do not necessarily buy expensive luxury. In the future, the value of two kinds of business is becoming more and more important. One is to help users save time This is the second business - to help users spend their time on good things.
There are two business schools of the future: one is to let him become addicted, holding his time; one is to provide services, optimization of his time. All industries must be close to the service industry. In this field, many great companies will be born in the future.
What the user wants, you give it, even if they did not say you guess. This is called maternal love algorithm. In the Chinese market, no one is better than you. But fortunately, there is a demand for this market fatherly algorithm. Many great companies will be born in the future.
That's what I'm talking about: giving people something they don't know yet. The Internet allows all industries are bound to the evolution of the service industry. Around this service consumption upgrade, but also the next stage of my pre consumer entrepreneurial opportunities: let users in their own knowledge of the blind area can be assured".
Behind the spirit is six words: you do not know. Listen to me. This service upgrade, the market in 2017, second black swan. The essence of this wave of opportunity, is to rely on love algorithm to tell the user, put down your hands of bad things, I tell you a good stuff, come with me. This is the most interesting place in the service industry.
Artificial intelligence is the next main battlefield. Who's more data, more accurate, who will be more technical monster feeding. Relationships are being replaced by human relations. What is the future of society?
The topic of intelligent revolution, bigger than the face, than the kidney are empty. But have to mention.
Intellectual revolution, third black swans in 2017. In 2016, everyone put heavily pressure in artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence to such a degree of fire, as a liberal arts students, I had to go around asking me to find artificial intelligence, I gradually learned that some of the ordinary people of artificial intelligence misunderstanding.
Simple clarification of three points:
First, artificial intelligence is not a reproduction of human beings, it is a completely different kind of existence;
What is the biggest difference between a machine and a human being?. This leads to a major difference between machine thinking and human thinking.
Because the ability is limited, the way of thinking is as simple as possible. So we have the important Occam razor principle, if not necessary, do not increase the entity. This can be more convenient to understand and transfer knowledge. But the machine is strong enough that it doesn't need to be simplified to understand. Artificial intelligence is to restore the original complexity of the world.
Second, artificial intelligence will not improve the threshold of players involved, is to reduce the threshold of participation;
Artificial intelligence used in various fields, such as voice recognition and engage in visual recognition and automatic driving, is completely different. However, because the artificial intelligence algorithm is opened up the bottom. The application of artificial intelligence, more and more like the algorithm. The most important battleground is the big data.
In the field of artificial intelligence Chinese considerable opportunities: first, the 43% of the world's artificial intelligence is Chinese writing; secondly, every year we graduated millions of engineers, no one can do this; the most important is that the world has not willing to contribute any Internet data people like us Chinese.
Third, artificial intelligence is not only an extension of human beings, it is a substitute for human beings.
Over the past ten thousand years, the general trend is that, with the help of technology, individuals become more and more powerful, the choice becomes more and more diverse. The world we face is getting richer and richer.
When it comes to this, you will find that the word "artificial intelligence" is too arrogant. It implies that this is a tool that we developed and manufactured by ourselves, which is not only an extension of man, but also a substitute for man. What is the future of society? This is a test of our generation's imagination.
In 2016, there was a kind of atmosphere in which things were changing. In the face of this new huge monster, you have two choices: the more expensive the "consensus" tax, or play a more and more brutal war cognition "".
In 2016, there is a kind of atmosphere in the air, that things are changing: the national version of the "new normal", Wang Xing's version of "second half", Robin Li's version of "the next act", and "a new version of Ma ping"...... The face of a new huge monster, we can not find a suitable word to describe it.
But one thing is certain, that is, our cognition must be iterated. The world is running away from your understanding. When the Internet came up, we had a false perception that the world would be flat. But over the past decade, we have found that the world is broken. The Internet is creating a lot of human diaphragm. People do not understand each other, do not agree with each other, and even do not know each other. The world is becoming more and more broken, and the power to heal and break will become more and more valuable. This is what we call a common understanding. The tax, fourth of the black swans, became a mere 2017.
Now, you have two choices: to pay more and more expensive "cognitive tax", or play more and more brutal "cognitive warfare". The cognitive battlefield as well as a cruel logic: once occupied, and then to have a place to live in others.
From Liu Qiangdong's point of view, you can understand how embarrassing it is. Jingdong set up every year to fight the cat to do, with ALI competing for eleven of this recognition. Excuse me, is this practice clever or foolish? According to me, this is precisely Liu Qiangdong's shrewd, because he is in fact to create another recognition, I was Ali's only opponent. Recognizing this, there is a wonderful characteristic. It is a seed, as long as you water, it grows. It is the friend of time, the longer the time, the greater the value. It's free, the way you water it, the way it grows.
After the truth
One word, the use of the frequency in 2016 soared 200 times - after the truth". The influence of emotion has exceeded the facts. Guo Degang, Cao Yunjin, Feng Xiaogang, Wang Sicong, Chen Ning Yang, and Qiu Chengtong...... From this a tear in each other, we should learn what.
From the beginning of next year, all my personal things will revolve around the main line. I would like to become a lifelong learner, constantly aware of the upgrade, continue to share and present my own changes. China's best knowledge service providers this awareness is the child of our entrepreneurial team. I will crawl in the long tunnel, follow it, pay attention to it and raise it in my own way.
The meaning of the truth is not that there is no truth, but for the world, the influence of emotions has exceeded the facts. After the advent of the era of truth, the core change is that people are increasingly concerned about the truth, but only concerned about the position, attitude and emotion.
The comedian Guo Degang and his apprentice Cao Yunjin tear, film director Feng Xiaogang and Wanda cinema "Prince" Wang Sicong tear, you care about what is the truth? In the past, we have come to terms with cognition; now, whether it is fact or cognition, it has become a tool for self-expression. This change is not a trivial matter, it is a turning point of human civilization. The real crisis is the crisis of community.
2017 of our fifth black swans are the truth. The process of civilization is not only the expansion of wealth and personal freedom, there is a strong and tough clue is the establishment of community, in other words, how we define "". Know who we are, to expand cooperation, wealth can be accumulated, security can be obtained, dignity can be constructed.
The age of truth is constantly weakening our sense of community, which is the anchor of our civilization. As long as you are trying to build a new partnership by trying to understand yourself, trying to explore different possibilities, you are an entrepreneur.
Whether you are working for the company or for yourself, whether you are self-employed or working, this is our common identity - the explorers of the times, the pioneers of the new frontier of human civilization. In all the explorers group, will naturally help and selfless sharing of ethics. The success or failure of the moment, what is not, the opponent of life, are also worthy of respect. This is the root cause of entrepreneurs will become a community.
The old boy taught me something: coincidentally, these things are related to time.
Our generation of entrepreneurs and other communities have a lot of different places, which is often misunderstood outside of our place: we are always wrong. In the world of entrepreneurs, there is never the right word, because we all know that there is a better strategy than our current practice.
NOKIA, Motorola, SONY, HP, YAHOO...... The most brilliant people remember not the great company time, but they look down at the final. On September 2016, Huang Taiji off a large area of coverage of the store. In these reports, we can smell a strong smell of schadenfreude, for a time, I also saw a lot of entrepreneurs forwarding text. To sum up, is a word: I really do not expect.
Rather than ridicule duties, as well as others to appreciate the road for you, feel the value of the moment to create a surprise to you.
For an entrepreneur, how many books you read, how much to learn, how many will be opened, the number of subordinates suffered injustice, your progress will not cheat you. In 2016, every entrepreneur has a number of people who can mark themselves. 2017, we push it, that is, to promote their own growth.
As Shakespeare in "the Tempest" wrote: "all the past is prologue."
Wu Xiaobo's year-end show
8 major changes in 2017
01 new middle has gradually become the mainstream.
Our first forecast for 2016 is the arrival of the first year of middle-class consumption, which became a reality in 2016. I think it will become the mainstream of the first year in 2017, the mainstream of the mainstream, not only is the consumption, product changes, it may be the middle of the olive shaped middle class expansion of the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Today, our country, in the mainstream society in 60, after the 70, after 80, 90, people of different ages play different roles. I believe that to understand China in 2017, it is necessary to understand the rule of the Chinese society of these four types of people.
60 has been a large scale withdrawal from the Chinese industrial economy line of business, they are the main investment in the future of the crowd, so after the investment concept of the 60 is that we need to focus on things. Today, China's automobile, clothing, entertainment, movies, many ideas are dominated by 70. After 80 is slowly walked to the center of the stage, so their aesthetic concept in the definition of Chinese culture is what, what is China's consumption. Then came after 90, they grew up in an era of internet. They become the future of China's consumption of rebel forces.
02 local artisan spirit reconstruction
In 2017, with the upgrading of consumption, the artisan spirit will be recycled products.
For so many years, Chinese manufacturers and entrepreneurs have long argued that imitation is the greatest success, foreign films, foreign clothing, foreign home appliance clap back, made with the lowest cost, the largest scale. For a long time, Chinese consumers are not willing to pay for local innovation, which has changed today.
At the same time, this is the era of mobile Internet, is the whole process of pyramid environmental deconstruction, when changes in the consumer market. 2017 China's large enterprises, the public brand of the day will be more and more sad, while some people willing to pay for the content, products will become China's new batch of entrepreneurs.
Young people use this way to bid farewell to the masters, we defined them as new builders.
03 cross-border mergers and acquisitions growth
Now there is a term called "the German industrial 4", I told the German Embassy in the leadership of the phone, asked the Chinese enterprises in 2016, the number of mergers and acquisitions in Germany increased. "An increase of 3 times" - the next few years slowly become the mainstream of the scene. Because of China's industrial transformation in all countries in the world the most real, we have more than 1 billion 400 million of the population, the middle class of 100 million.
The transformation of the entire industry is based on the premise of consumer upgrades, so in the future we will become the world's 4 industrial, industrial upgrading of the fourth largest test site. I don't think we'd like to buy some Japanese as markers, we will mainly to small and medium enterprises, to China middle class and the wealthy family, in a more penetrating way to developed countries to buy their financial assets, assets, assets of industrial technology. This will be an important trend in 2017.
04 artificial intelligence penetration industry
At the beginning of 2016, we saw a piece of news that Alfa beat South Korea's champion. But we will say that the dog is far away from our life. What has changed?
Earlier this year, we saw a Internet Co in Shenzhen, they called themselves the financial technology company, the company had 2400 people, do P2P, do Internet banking sales. Through the big data and depth of learning, your name, some information to tell them, the machine can be determined within two minutes can not give you a loan of 300 thousand.
So, in 2017, AI will enter our lives at a faster rate than we thought.
05 capital market frequent shedding
In the capital market, 2017 will be a more active year. The first half of 2016, the real estate market soared to the central government's great vigilance, by the end of 2017 will be held nineteen, so the whole of China's political, economic, public opinion in 2017 will be the first prerequisite for stability.
For institutional funds, regardless of private equity funds or social security funds are abundant. But in the capital market, regardless of the real economy and service industry is still in the depths of the transition, so large-scale funds lack of good subject matter, they will find a relatively definite goal, even if it is a shell.
2017, under the premise of standardization, I think venture capital will enter the market, along with it, as well as private equity funds, venture funds, and even the country's sovereign funds. In this process, the quality of listed companies and the industry will be a huge change in the situation, and with the increase in China's capital market derivatives, more and more companies will be willing to start listing in china.
06 financial panic continues to spread
China's transformation is still very difficult, I think in 2017 the traditional manufacturing, service sector bankruptcy situation will continue.
Foreign trade companies, if there is no way to deal with the new cross-border electricity supplier model, then Trump will have an impact on China's foreign trade, foreign trade will continue to be in a volatile environment. In order to complete this unprecedented industrial restructuring, the central government will do two things, the first is to continue to increase investment in infrastructure through PPP way to maintain more than 6.5% of GDP growth. Second is to continue to tolerate monetary quantitative easing".
20% of Chinese companies will lead the country's economic transformation and upgrading, the company will still be in a very difficult state of 80%. If these things become a reality in 2017, it means that the gap between rich and poor in China in 2017 continue to widen. So there may be financial panic in 2017.
07 new monopoly challenge Fair
I think there are two very important themes in the future of China's economy and society:
The first theme is that we want to achieve this transformation and upgrading of the real economy by young people, artisans, the majority of small and medium enterprises. This is a very costly, but I think a very high probability of successful transformation.
The second theme is fairness, history is always in the development and fairness of the swing.
Internet economy as a social deformation of the universal economy, in all walks of life have caused changes. But on the one hand, we see the Internet, the power of new technologies to overturn the old business model, on the other hand, see a new monopoly. So I think, after 2017, with the rise of the middle class, the fight against monopoly and the re definition of the environment of public opinion will become more and more important topic.
08 of the global political and economic turmoil and deflation
2017, the world is still in a deflationary environment, the anti globalization scene will continue to spread. Every year, there will be a lot of anxious things, but we will still come to the end of December of each year the stage to predict next year.
"The wind is very big." We see Internet plus in 2015, see the traditional manufacturing industry suffered enormous impact of Internet economy and new economy. Such a scenario will still happen in 2017. So we still have to be prepared to stay in a rational state, with a positive, healthy, and even a little happy mood to the new year.
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