Broke the news: China's largest mortgage risk? You can not think of the answer

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Broke the news: China's largest mortgage risk? You can not think of the answer

2017-01-11 11:09:05 56 ℃

At present, the real estate regulation China tug of war again into a stalemate, there is news that China recent real estate regulation has achieved remarkable results, because prices show signs of. So, what is the biggest risk of China's mortgage?

China's real estate bubble?

Integrated media reports, according to sources, the reporter learned from the Beijing Municipal Construction Committee, the past three months, the Beijing property market transaction demand fell, the volume of price stability, in December last year, the average price of the new house turnover is down compared to the year of September. Non nationals and two sets of purchase have declined in the fourth quarter of last year, speculative investment demand has been effectively curbed.

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics, Beijing October, new home price index in November rose 0.6% QoQ, respectively, in the country's 70 large and medium cities were ranked in the top 37, the 56.

The market generally believes that rising prices will lead to the existence of the risk of the property market bubble burst, but scholars Yi Xianrong pointed out that the biggest risk is that China's property market prices fell.

According to the commercial network quoted Yi Xianrong see the article reported that in 2017, with the real estate control policies to further implement the regulation policy and some city code, many domestic media cheered in this round of domestic real estate regulation results, because many of the city's housing sales declined significantly, and even some of the city's housing sales a sharp decline.

However, this sharp decline in housing sales, said the real estate regulation may have a significant effect.

Because the government has taken a major reduction in housing financing leverage led to sharp decline in housing sales. The reason, one is at home in 2016 the majority of the city's housing sales have reached an all-time high, as long as the sales record is not sustainable, no regulation will decline, decline regulation is inevitable, or don't reduce the purchase housing financing leverage policy will also allow the housing sales decline is too high.

The two is in accordance with the general rules of the consumer goods market, if the market product sales fell sharply, the price will decline, but the most stringent regulatory policy said in the market after the introduction of the history, many of the city's housing sales fell sharply, but housing prices did not decline, some city prices decline is a little, and even some in the city housing sales fell sharply at the same time, housing prices are still rising, but rising prices crazy smaller than before.

This also means that the current China's housing market is still basically a speculation as a leading investment market. As an investment speculation in the housing market, it is characterized by price changes do not depend on the actual market supply and demand of products, but also depends on the market expectations of investors.

As long as prices are rising, investors do not want to leave. As long as prices continue to fall and the market is expected to change, investors will leave or exit the market. That is to say, in the current real estate market Chinese, even if the housing sales decline, even sales fell sharply, as long as the investment speculation market expected prices will rise, they will not reduce the housing prices out of the market, but the house is firmly held.

And prices do not fall, investors do not want to withdraw from the market, then squeeze out the current domestic real estate market bubble is just an empty talk. At present, China's real estate market bubble is not squeezed out, it is impossible to curb asset bubbles, to return to the housing function is not possible to live.

Because of Chinese real estate market in such a situation, recent research report pointed out that, although in recent years, the whole society China housing loans continued to grow rapidly, increasing from 6 trillion and 800 billion in June 2011 to 16 trillion and 600 billion in June 2016, despite the housing family households nationwide, 2013 mortgage family households compared to 2011 rose 23.1% in 2015 compared to 2013 increased 12.8% at the end of 2013, and compared to the total balance of loans rose 37.3% in 2011, 2015 at the end of the mortgage balance compared to the total increase of 44.7% in 2013, but in recent years the rapid growth of housing mortgage loans is the main bank holding the hands of the housing, the high income not only holds the majority of housing mortgage loans, and their ability to repay loans than the low the recipient is stronger, so the bank housing mortgage loan risk current is not high.

For example, if we set up a minimum income ratio > 0.75 for risk warning critical value, both belong to the lowest income families grouped and exceeds the warning value risk of all mortgage family households accounted for 3.9%; risk families in low-income families accounted for 5.1% of all mortgage families; middle income families in the figure was 1.5%; high income families is 0.7%; the highest income families is 0.7%.

The report pointed out that, during 2013-2015, the average household mortgage mortgage balance accelerated mainly lies in three aspects, one is the purchase of new housing prices accelerated; the two is the purchase of new housing leverage rate accelerated, i.e., each purchase of new housing loans to increase the proportion of the original loan; three is the family purchase loans. We believe that the average loan balance of the original loan growth accelerated mainly for family loans to.

That is to say, according to the report of the logic, in recent years, some domestic city crazy prices rise, mainly driven by rapid growth of bank credit, and the excessive growth of housing mortgage loans, the vast majority of high income residents in the domestic. For the domestic high income residents, they not only hold the housing itself, but the financial assets and income are far better than the low income residents, their debt repayment ability, so the risk of excessive mortgage loan growth is facing on the current Chinese the banking system is not high.

Markets don't have to worry too much about it. The risk of these housing mortgage loans are mainly low-income households, which accounted for 7.8%. As you can see, this report looks to be an investigation, samples, data, with economic logic is that the current China residential mortgage loans with some risk, but the proportion of small, is not high, so the current Chinese housing mortgage credit risk not to worry too much.

But in fact, why does this report come to these conclusions, and the central government is a serious warning to curb China's asset bubble, curbing China's real estate bubble? The two are totally different. In fact, the core of this report is to assume that the current housing market prices will only rise and not fall, but also to keep prices stable.

It can be said that in a speculation as a leading housing market, as long as the expected prices do not change, as long as prices do not fall, then the bank's housing mortgage loans have less risk, then the bank will put housing mortgage loans as high quality assets.In the past 2014-2016 years, possession of housing or housing residents why investors into the housing market, domestic banks are willing to through housing mortgage loans to 70% bank loans into the real estate market, the key problem is that China real estate market prices only rise.

As long as house prices fall, whether it is high - income housing mortgage loans, or low-income housing mortgage loans have a huge risk.

In 2016, many domestic city housing prices rising to the sky, after the excessive expansion of credit to China real estate market bubble huge real estate, strict control policy will not be able to make a huge real estate bubble out? To squeeze out the real estate bubble, prices can not fall?

As long as house prices fall, the risk of housing mortgage loans in China's banking system will be exposed. If the market and the central government do not recognize this, it is the biggest risk of China's financial system. At present, the risk of housing mortgage loans in china.

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