We studied more than and 10 years of real estate, remember this sentence on the line...2017-01-12 00:37:52 59 ℃
In January 8th 2017, Hu Runxin 100 financial summit held in Shenzhen Rigi Hostellerie, Founder Securities chief economist Ren Zeping attended and delivered a keynote speech.
The following is the speech record:
I was in 2014 to the sea, the past two years have been put forward some views on the market, a number of more or less spread, for example, in 2014 we put forward "5000 is not a dream," 2015 after we put forward the concept of "a bearish stock market prices doubled" judgment.
Standing at this point in time, there are a few points to update you, look forward to 2017, I would like to have so few judgments for your reference:
First, the Chinese economyWe have proposed China, the economy is likely to be L in 2015, in 2016 completed the China economy bottomed out, we estimate 2016, 2017 to 2018, the economy is in the bottom of the China time fluctuations, this is a completely new era.In 2017 we will have two dip note,Mainly because of the two real estate callback.I would like to emphasize that this year China's economic macro may become worse, but the micro will become better, what is the reason?
Because the real estate demand is shrinking callback, but we see that the microscopic research, because the supply of clearing, Chinese enterprise industry concentration in a promotion, the industry leader is in a very favorable position, with China environmental protection, security risks and competition pattern of change, plus the Bank of the traditional industries of the credit limit, we will see in the traditional industry will grow a group of giants, but these enterprises are brewing a big bull stock, this is a completely different era. So I was in 2014 put forward the "new 5% better than the old 8%", is the industry's clearing at the end of 2016, please note it has been showing a dawn, in 2017 2018, we will continue to see the difference in the macro background, the supply side of the micro clearing continues, micro enterprises continue to benefit to improve, this is the traditional industry of hope and way out, this is the first observation on macro economy.
Second, China's public policyThe second half of the year, from 2016 to 2017, we pay attention to macro policy happened Chinese steering system, we remember in the first half of 2014, 2015 and 2016, we are facing a very strong steady growth in demand, but with inflation is expected to rise and stabilize the economy, we will see in 2017, our entire macroeconomic policy the guide, from the steady growth to anti risk and promote reform of our economy and the impact of the system of categories of assets. Keep in mind that risk prevention is a risk, for example, to curb asset price bubbles, leverage the bond market, strengthen capital account control, etc..
Promote reform is the opportunity this year, the theme of investment opportunities will be carried out in the following three areas:
Agricultural supply side reformDriven by the green, organic agriculture and land related topics, this year is likely to be a year of land reform.
Two is the state-owned enterprises mixed changeThis time, the central economic work conference made it clear that the mix change is the breakthrough in the reform of state-owned enterprises, so we must pay attention to, as brought by the reform of property rights engenders these fields of electricity, petroleum and natural gas, railway, civil aviation, telecommunications, military and other investment opportunities in the.
The three is to expand around the capacity of overweightI believe that the supply side reforms will continue to promote this year, this year will not relax, and from iron and steel, coal, cement, electrolytic aluminum to glass and shipbuilding industry to expand around the part of the industry will usher in a turning point. The other, including "The Belt and Road" opportunities.
Third, talk about the views of major categories of assets, the stock market, the housing market, the bond market, foreign exchange market, commodities.For the stock market, our judgment is that in 2017 there may be no opportunity for the index, but the structural opportunities are very large, roughly around the two main lines, performance and reform. Why? We argue that in 2017 the main line is growth stocks, value stocks or cyclical stocks. We believe that the stock market is actually behind the risk preference, risk preference is high or low risk preference, risk preference is actually behind the structure of investors, such as before in a bull market, a retail money, plus leveraged money, these are high risk preference, love story, love to burn the industry. But now the market is in the public fund, insurance, stock funds, incremental funding and future potential from the banking, insurance, and so are the low risk appetite, so be sure to pay attention to the performance of 2017 not to hype the story, the story will be killed badly, but there is a performance, regardless of growth or the value will be the capital market respect and recognition, this is for the stock market.
For the bond market, we may also need to wait, because the economy is still inertia upward, inflation is still high, probably in the two or three quarter will usher in a turnaround, tend to trade opportunities.
For gold, please pay attention to the first half of this year may have the opportunity to gold, the main logic is the dollar callback.
For exchange rateRecently, the central bank in hand, liquidity dried in the offshore market, strengthen bank capital account control, I think the exchange rate to stabilize,The medium-term will release the pressure of the overestimation.Why should China's exchange rate depreciate and why? We talked a lot, I would like to talk about a logic, it is because 2014, 2015 yuan relative to the dollar over the dollar, the depreciation of the stock market, the housing market rose, the depreciation of foreign exchange rate adjustment. We regret that in 2015 2014, internal devaluation, no external devaluation, finally in 2015 August by a breakthrough in the reform of our open devaluation of the road, so China is still in the process of correcting RMB overvalued. If you see a longer term, the RMB exchange rate in the future is to go down or go up? Depends on the country's growth prospects, and whether the growth prospects behind the restart of a new round of reform? This is our observation of exchange rates.
Because of the time,I would like to focus on the more concerned about the real estateWhy talk about real estate? We can look at, in the past eight years of global currency in the water, we made a lot of bubbles, from the stock market, the bond market, the housing market, including the depreciation of the exchange rate, in fact, are related to the currency on the water. Followed by the emergence of liquidity inflection point, the stock market has collapsed, the bond market collapsed, the exchange rate depreciated, and now left the last one of the most rigid bubble - real estate, 2017 will be how to go?
In 2015, we predicted that the first tier prices doubled, there is no doubt that the past year, China's 1 billion 370 million most talked about is a topic of real estate. But we discuss many, often simple to complicate the problem, I think of the real estate is very simple, we studied more than and 10 years of real estate, I think the real estate you remember a word on the line "long term population, short term finance, because long-term inflow and outflow of population and area the basic age structure determines a local housing prices; short term financial leverage, because the interest rate and makes the adjustment of residents purchase expenditure in advance or delay. I'll tell the financial problems, we first say the population issues. We have to determine the basic price of a place, five years, ten years, in fact, is to determine the future of this place is the influx of people or outflow of the local people will be how to go? Rose. Where are the people out of the room? Fall. Not complicated. Northeast population is out of Shenyang's housing prices have not been up for five years, it is second tier cities. The United States is a developed country, the population of Detroit is out of the house prices plummeted. Therefore, the key to determine the fundamentals of a local price, is to determine the inflow and outflow of population. Where will the Chinese go in the future?
Over the past few years, we have been full of controversy about this issue, some people think that the future of the Chinese people to move into the big city, and why? Because of the big city wonderful, dynamic, but we also said that big cities have big cities, traffic pressure, competition pressure, poor air, haze.
We do not know what the haze in Shenzhen, I come to tell you what is called haze. Beijing winter day issued an orange alert, issued an orange alert that there is a friend in Hongkong to fly to Beijing landing three times without landing, back again, this is the orange alert, you can imagine what is red?
We say that the problem is very serious in the big city, then go to small and medium cities, small cities and blue sky, the pressure is not so great. But it is also said that small and medium-sized city good mountain, good water, good lonely. So it has been a controversial issue in the past, and we have been controversial in the public policy department. The past is often the policy of small town population scale, balanced regional development, the development of the control of the big city, everyone still remember it for a while, we want to engage in metropolis, made several metropolitan area, where the flow of people in the future? Our public policy is not clear.
We study the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea more than a dozen economies, their population trends, the reasons for the time to talk about two,The United States and japan. Why talk about these two?Because the two are representative, the United States is a person's relationship is not tight, it is about the size of China and China, China's 1 billion 370 million people, the United States and 320 million people. Two is Japan, the relationship between man and land tension, Japan is equivalent to 1.5 Shandong Province, Japan how many people? 130 million, human relations so very nervous, so we can look at the two economies with floating population representative of the trend, the proportion of Japan over the past one hundred years occupy Japan metropolis population, we see what is the trend? Is on the rise, the law has never been reversed, 130 million people in Japan and 36 million in Tokyo, 50 million in Korea and 25 million in Seoul, everyone will say because of the tension relationship between Japanese and Korean, so we are to a large metropolitan area.
We look at the relationship between people and land is not tight in the United States, the United States over the past seventy or eighty years the trend of population flow, you see my key marked red part of the metropolitan area in the United States accounted for the proportion of the population of the United States, we see what is the trend? Rising, the relationship between the United States is not nervous, people continue to move to the metropolitan area and gathering, this law has never been reversed. Why? Because of the large metropolitan area more saving land, more saving resources, more dynamic, more efficient, this is the victory of city civilization for hundreds of years, this is a kind of civilization, this also means that we used to engage in those small and medium-sized urbanization strategy and balanced regional development, Western zaochengyundong will pay the price for the who is, continue to large inflows of metropolitan area.
We look at the past five years, the population flow Chinese trend, also basically flows from East and west to four metropolitan areas, so our future forecast Chinese prices becomes simple, this is our core forecast index of prices, we tested all the forecast price index, we think this is the most reliable indicator the.
Where prices will rise? A person of low inventory. There is a place where people demand, inventory is not low, prices will rise. Where prices rise? Population outflow, high inventory.
We will ask, why these places like Shenzhen in less than a year turned nearly doubled? This is a very simple picture, but it will change your world outlook, values, outlook on life and wealth. Why? From 2014 to 2015, the blue line is China broad money supply, the red line is the nominal GDP growth, we what happened in 2014 and 2015, broad money is upward, downward nominal GDP, which means that the money, the money supply is up, the name is down GDP and this is a typical super currency, super currency triggered a generalized asset price inflation, the stock market and the housing market, goods are behind the flood of liquidity or buffalo, including depreciation of the exchange rate, the fundamental reason is money, made more money and not to devalue, can print money buy the world down, this is not possible, this is the most basic law of economics.
We look back over the past thirty years, the growth rate of money supply in the long-term nominal GDP growth above, what does that mean? Over the past thirty years, we are in a large currency over the cycle, I ask you, in the context of the currency over the assets of the people who suffer the most? Cash. A lot of people would say I don't have a penny in my pocket. House up, not only the house, prices rose a lot.
To give you an example, the extent of the devaluation of the currency?We often say that ten thousand households is very great, if you have 10 thousand dollars in 1980, the amount of wealth and purchasing power of 10 thousand yuan in 1980 is roughly equivalent to the number of now? We calculate, Beijing in 1980 a good worker monthly salary of 20 yuan, earn about $ten thousand to work for twenty or thirty years. Beijing is now a three hundred thousand workers salary, he will earn twenty or thirty years is about five or six million, so this is a conservative estimate of millions, tens of millions of houses and to have tens of millions of magnitude ratio. In 1980 the purchasing power and wealth of 10 thousand yuan should be roughly the number of millions, and the house is more than ten million.
If you have 10 thousand yuan in 1980, feel great, then you put it in the bank, save for 36 years today, you take it out, how much can you take? 1980 10 thousand yuan deposit for 36 years to today, how much money can be taken out? 10 thousand 36 years, according to the negative profit calculation, can take out 57 thousand yuan, 10 thousand yuan is equivalent to the magnitude of the millions of wealth in 1980 you deposit banks, today can only take out 57 thousand yuan, so the devaluation of the currency is amazing, many economists say we would move for cash, selling stocks. I tell you, cash is the most dangerous asset allocation, do not sell stocks to buy stocks. Over the past thirty years because of the super money, in fact, give us a lot of investment opportunities, the opportunity to increase wealth.
A lot of people say that the house rose more than in 1998 began commercial housing reform, in 2015 the national price is equivalent to 3.5 times in 1998, but our broad money supply grew by a factor of 13.3, roughly equivalent to the rise in prices. Is the house more or more money? We will say that, like the big city, Beijing, Shanghai are in control of the population, population control, is not the people do not come, prices will rise? Let's look at Beijing, Shanghai is not the problem of population control. We compare Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo and Seoul, including New York, which are major metropolitan areas. Beijing roughly the same size as Tokyo, Tokyo, more than 10% of the urban area of Beijing, how many people in Tokyo? Tokyo 36 million people, Beijing 22 million people, 24 million people in Shanghai, Tokyo, the same area of more than 14 million population than Beijing, Seoul 25 million, Seoul area is only half of Beijing's population density, so you will see these large metropolitan areas it is higher than the US, people are more than us, we will ask. We didn't people traffic pressure, air is better than us, we look at what is the problem?
Beijing rail transit, a Tokyo, 36 million people, per capita railway traffic mileage is four times that of Beijing. We are now planning the city is too rough, too many cars limit, more people on the control of the population, should improve our urban planning, increase the supply of public transport. We roughly estimated that if Beijing and Shanghai's city planning can be improved, the rail traffic can improve, Beijing will add 10 million people over the next ten years, Shanghai added 6 million people within ten years of the two city will be more than 30 million.
People continue to flow into the metropolitan area, the currency super hair, and our land use control, the first line of land for real estate can not afford, the first line will be how to go?
Finally ushered in a turning point, made clear in 2016 December the central economic work conference, changes in the real estate regulation will, in addition to October after the purchase of credit limit and control demand, we began to establish long-term mechanism, the central economic work conference has so few highlights:
First, the positioning of the real estate, the house is used to live, not for speculation.Very well, this sentence is actually set the investment, speculative demand, the establishment of the consumption and living needs, the idea is very advanced, it is to bring a lot of hope.
The two is the implementation of people to hook, what is called a hook?Is the past to metropolitan large inflows, but no land transfer over, led to our line three or four line of high prices, high inventory, which is the same with our entire urbanization orientation, because our past is the small town oriented, this time we finally proposed to hook people.
Three is the establishment of metropolitan strategy.You look at this word, big city functions ease part of the city, promote the development of small and medium-sized city around, what this sentence means? Is the determination of the metropolitan area.
Turn in the long-term mechanism of the central economic work conference, if this mechanism can be implemented in 2017, 2018, China real estate will be stable and healthy development, China transformation will also usher in a turning point, if we can establish a long-term mechanism to stimulate the real estate through steady growth, increase the haze, let the old economy a stirring among the dry bones so, the new economy and new finance are suppressed, so we went further'n transformation.
We firmly believe that the concept of the market economy has taken root in this country, the new central collective leadership demonstrated the courage and determination to promote reform, reform is the biggest bonus, reform is the only way out, thank you.
Wang Chenghailun, editor of new media operations
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