Money is how to battle into paper money machine2017-01-12 00:38:39 181 ℃
Recent data show that China's official consumer price inflation (CPI) is still in the past four years, the average level of nearly 2%, but the city's people feel the cost of living is rising. In fact, in November, China's first tier cities, the cost of family soared by nearly 27%.
A strong feeling of pain
Statistics can be deceptive, but the feeling is real, not deceptive. Now, the general feeling is that the money is not worth more money, 100 yuan notes, dig out can not buy the kind of fruit, vegetables, basically no two.30 years ago the price of 0.14 yuan, now generally 3 dollars, up 20 times; 5 cents a Deep-Fried Dough Sticks, now 2 yuan, up 40 times; if the monetization of housing from 1998 to date, 18 years, the national average house prices rose by about 15 times, whether it is relative to Germany and Europe the country, or compared with Japan, are almost crazy.
If you have 10 thousand yuan 30 years ago, chaos in 2 gross / bowl calculation, you can buy 50 thousand bowls of chaos; if you take 10 thousand to five years now, take regular savings deposit rolling, death, 30 years can recover the money with interest 100 thousand, many families do not know of a house how much is the 100 thousand times, did not see the envy. If in accordance with the chaos of the market 10 yuan / bowl calculation, you can probably buy a bowl of chaos in 10 thousand. More than 30 years, the same money, has been less than 40 thousand bowls of chaos, who stole them? You know what?Marx believes that inflation is to plunder, war is foreign plunder, basically be the phrase. Freedman, the father of modern monetarism, said: "inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon, which is caused by an increase in the quantity of money faster than output." "Inflation" is ZF to all the people on a hidden tax, in the credit currency system, the amount of money in circulation more than the actual needs of economic development, resulting in a rise in prices and the devaluation of the currency, the excess currency collection seigniorage is the culprit.
If the amount of money according to Freedman's famous formula: MV=PT (M on behalf of the money supply, monetary circulation velocity, V on behalf of P represents the price level, inflation is measured, T is the total output of the economy), we lost 40 thousand bowls of chaos, was a massive monetary issue to the dilution of the central mother chaos, into the water.
The reason is simple, if you ignore the commodity circulation and currency circulation speed, a total of 10 thousand pounds of wheat assuming the commodity markets, in the same year, the central mother issued a total of 10 thousand yuan of money, then the price of wheat is 1 yuan / kg; if the central mother think ZF deficit of state-owned enterprises poor infrastructure, lack of money, the mother started to bite, the printing presses, printing 100 thousand yuan notes, then the corresponding price is 10 yuan per kilogram of wheat.
Wheat rose from 1 yuan to $10, of course, is obviously rising prices, which is the real inflation that we feel. Not only did not print the money to get, get the hand is still declining wages, but also the cost of inflation on the back, a word: planted!
The printing press rapid start
Then we mom central printing exactly how fast? The beginning of reform and opening up to the end of 1979, RMB supply (M2) is about 150 billion yuan, from 1984 to 1990, the RMB currency supply began to grow rapidly, M2 has always maintained an annual growth rate of over 20%, in 1984 and 1986, M2 growth rate reached a staggering 39% and 31%...... We only know that the "price pass through" the term, may not understand the meaning of. In 1988, there was a rush to buy -To accommodate the limited capacity in the real estate, stock market, bond market funds, the amount of money poured into the daily necessities and food markets, inflation eventually become crazy panic buying action, see what what to buy, salt, soy sauce, rice, flour, the store as long as the East West, basically have been sold out, even if home made it, it really is a kind of King's, sent to barter, comparable to venezuela.
In 90s, Zhu phase with a thunderbolt, multi currency, financial and administrative measures together, fight inflation tiger, basic is to complete a soft landing for the economy, keeping prices stable and rapid economic growth, set aside for Chinese behind the economic development space. After joining the WTO, the strong growth in export trade, the rapid development of China's economy, while the money supply is also a substantial expansion, M2 perennial two digit growth. A record 30 trillion of M2 in 2006, by the end of 2016 reached 150 trillion, 10 years increased by more than 5 times, rare in the world, there are two countries can be seen in this not say; compared with 1979, 37 years, money growth 1000 times.
In recent years, many media are popular as a contrast, issuance incremental, half the time we can print the Russian GDP, one year on the printed GDP in France, 4 years can print out the euro zone GDP......So the fate of the currency, really let people terrified. It is expected that in 2020, the Chinese total M2 will reach 220 trillion yuan, while our foreign exchange reserves are only $3 trillion in the US currency in foreign exchange for the 80% anchor under the premise of M2 and the ratio of foreign reserves, is staggering. What's more, foreign reserves have been formed in the trend of decline, less than two years time, a decrease of 1 trillion, according to this rate of decline, the decline in the exchange rate of the renminbi can not become the focus of the topic? How can we not worry about the problem of rampant inflation of money bags?
The essence of inflation -- robbing the poor to the rich
Keynes, the father of macroeconomics, said that the use of inflation for the transfer of wealth, wonderful wonderful in the 1 million people, not necessarily a person can see the root of the problem." According to the experience, whether it is the era of inflation or currency deflation, and whether it is economic prosperity or depression, as long as you hold the currency, it is facing the problem of devaluation. This conclusion is indeed a bit cruel, but the reality is so naked.
Inflation is a rough transfer of wealth, the rich tend to get more opportunities in the currency, the debt investment, use of financial leverage, capital appreciation, money faster; and whether the poor can use leverage? Can, but very few, because the financial leverage threshold, there must be a certain amount of capital accumulation, to have collateral. The middle class can loan to buy a house, this is the only place to use leverage, if want to obtain low interest loans from other sources, is unlikely. Most of the poor have the habit of saving, like saving, disgust, fear of risk. In the process of inflation, the beneficiary of the debt, the depositors damaged.Because of the social security system, pension, medical education is not established, the pursuit of a sense of security, the poor save for real money is the possible period of want or need, borrow, the loss of wealth in the imperceptibly. A danger, we probably calculate, now 1 million yuan, 10 years after what is equivalent to how much money? 20 years later?
1980 to today, more than 30 years, China's broad money supply M2 average annual growth rate of about 22.45%, China's real annual inflation rate of about 11.9%.If calculated according to this data, we can roughly calculate the two models of the current $1 million, 10 years later and after the equivalent of today, how much money today, 20. If calculated in terms of money supply, 131 thousand and 900 and 17 thousand and 400, respectively. If the inflation rate, respectively, 324 thousand and 500 and 104 thousand and 300.
This is in the "basic political stability, the economy is relatively stable transition" under the premise of political unrest, economic crisis, the situation is even worse.
Germany after the first World War, the wages of the morning must be used immediately, otherwise, the afternoon may become waste paper. Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the ruble against the dollar remained at the level of 1:0.9, 1 million dollar millionaires is 1 million rubles to the millionaire, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in November 25, 1994, the official exchange rate is 1 ruble dollar to 3235 rubles, that is to say millionaire has demoted to only $300; today in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, only in the money back keep adding "0" copies......
The car in front of the cover, view. The article writes here, each of us can measure, we have property, social security, health insurance, in 30 years, what can we leave? What is the solution? The battle against inflation, the printing presses, you choose what kind of weapon? Real estate? Stocks? Yellow? Foreign exchange? In kind for the king? We own choice!
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