The largest gap between the rich and poor in eight years, the people are looking to pick up the disk of the era of the official arrival!2017-03-19 06:33:38 103 ℃
The fact that the Gini coefficient, which measures the degree of fairness in income distribution, has always been a mystery in china.
Early official has been kept secret, but could not resist a variety of domestic and foreign institutions to fill people brain, finally began in 2013 announced.
Over the years, the official caliber of the data has been more than four points, while the data measured by civil self reached more than seven points.
Which is more true, honey sister in this do not want to discuss.But no matter which, more than the international warning line.
According to the United Nations, the index is located in 0.2 of the average income, 0.2-0.3 said that the relative average, 0.3-0.4 is relatively reasonable, 0.4-0.5 said the income gap is large, more than 0.6 of the income gap
This year, the situation is even worse.In January this year, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced the latest Gini coefficient of income of 0.465, which is the first time since the rise in 2008.
So what is the difference between the rich and poor in China?
In the past few days on the property market news has been a brush head.
Among them, the argument about the property market food chain caused the attention of honey sister.
Graduates D bought a white-collar C house as a marriage room, spent 4 million (parents raised the loan + 2 million 500 thousand + 1 million 500 thousand).
White collar C real estate to buy a 6 million house in the middle of the B (+ $4 million of real estate loans + 2 million).
In the middle of the B and bought the rich A1050 million houses, 7 million 500 thousand of loans (of which 3 million for investment).
Rich A real cash, with 10 million 500 thousand immigrants to australia.
This chain is that graduates to buy white-collar workers, white-collar workers to buy the middle class, the middle class to buy the rich, the rich immigrants after the real estate.
From which we can see two points:
First, the more to the upper level, the lever can be leveraged, the greater the gains are obtained, that is, people with high asset prices are more likely to get a higher return on assets.
Even more frightening is that after a series of three acts to create nearly 2000Million big cake (trading volume), but the twenty million did not GDPWhat contribution to growth.
In other words, there is no creation of new wealth during this period, just a few times to change hands, out of thin air out of a large amount of money.
What does this mean?
The property market has become a no incremental wealth, only to compete for the existing stock of the game.
In this one, it is clear that the fish are more likely to eat small fish, richer people are more likely to get the money, and then everyone in the ring are looking for the next home, we have entered the era of the people looking for disk access.
Only the property market is it?
Take a look at our years, in the end how much money printed?
You can see that in the past more than and 10 years, China's M2 currency issued doubled growth, especially from 2008 after the big stimulus is exponential growth.M2The growth rate was maintained at 14%Above。
And how much is our GDP? Over the past few years has been around 7%, last year is below the 7%, the future will also be maintained at the level of low growth -The total increment of our social wealth is getting smaller and smaller.
So these extra money, where to go?
2015 stock market soared, the property market in 2016 hurricane, in addition to all kinds of gray Scam - P2P, private lending, the original equity investment and so on, as well as the property market is another round of madness.
In the process, the first to get the money is rich.
The money will get what? His standard of living is high enough that he does not need to spend extra money.It is investment, stock speculation in speculation, general Mou can invest.
Thus, asset prices have been pushed up, asset bubble began to form.For example, the stock market crash of 2015, when the stock price gradually climb, the bull market began to form, poor people thought that business opportunities, so Jiancang admission, these rich people are quietly exit.
There is speculation experience know that the bull market in the latter period, the faster rise, then it is a process of mutual regard each other, increase the national. To the top of the madness, it began to turn the corner, the second person in the dream of wealth was instantly cut leek.
So, in the past two years, we have seen one after another myth of wealth, money seems to be more and more easy to earn, but to ourselves, how so difficult?
Because this is an era of stock competition, some people make money, some people will lose.
In the stock market, brokerage firms and large pots, high cash, individual investors are set at the top of the mountain, the loss of many; the property market, developers and investors money rolling into, lying to make money, ordinary people charged with heavy loan, a mortgage slave; P2P scam, those "successful businessmen" night riches, brilliance, and the victims once returning, lose everything.
Every asset bubble is a wealth transfer. The home is easier than ever to earn more money than the home, the home always want to have a more downstream people to take their own disk.
Yesterday (3)17 monthAnother big day) Beijing news, market regulation and upgrading, housing and credit recognition, two suites Shoufu to 60%.
At the same time, a number of hot second tier have also upgraded the previous restriction of credit limit measures, regulatory efforts to increase.
We seem to see a mysterious chain:
Beijing to buy a house more difficult, you can go to Hebei to buy a house; the first line is too high to go to the second line, the second line is difficult to buy a house can go to three or four lines...... inventory has gone, the house also bought, not happy?
The problem is that now the house has become a financial product, prices are rising because it is rising.
How many people to buy a house is in urgent need of housing, not because of soaring property prices under the panic? They are not for their own housing, but in order to gain income, earn the difference, white, is looking for a disk.
Honey sister thought of Zhao Benshan's essay "Maiguai". A person to sell their cheap turn with big buyers bidding.
"Clinch a deal!"
In fact, the more people are more likely to get the resources of the Matthew effect is not terrible, because the big fish eat small fish this is the law of nature, in the commercial community there are also such phenomena, such as the increasingly large BAT.
But the terrible thing is that this phenomenon occurs in the era of no incremental wealth, only the stock of economic competition. If the rich want to make more money, the poor will have to lose more money.
In fact, this is a dead end.In order to develop the real economy, the development of the real economy, we must boost domestic demand; to expand domestic demand, we must stimulate consumption.
And now the situation is that the income gap is too wide, the rich, the poor do not consume not consumption, the government had to continue to rely on investment to stimulate economic growth, and social capital will be further off the real to the imaginary, concentrated and non entity to the capital in the financial sector to increase.
As a result, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
So, what will happen in the future?
The scope of China's economy is too large, and then talk about the property market.
Short term, high probability, predictable.
Fed rate hike, and a total of six before 2018 to raise interest rates, the interest rate is expected to rise by up to two times. So in order not to allow the further spread of Sino US spreads, not to allow further outflows of capital, the RMB interest rate will keep up.
Therefore, mortgage interest rates will keep up. Then the housing will be more and more heavy, can not afford to buy the house will not be able to afford housing.
The farther future.
Interest rates rise, will depress all asset prices, then the property market will not fall?
When prices have rocketed to even second tier city prices are comparable to New York, will not have to access the disk?
When house prices deviate from the actual value is too large, the unique "China model" can support how long?
By then, the property market bubble will not break?
Honey sister can not say, do not dare to say.
So what do you say?
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