China's real economy survey: layoffs, wage cuts are staged

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China's real economy survey: layoffs, wage cuts are staged

2017-05-20 01:50:02 175 ℃


A boom, Wanye.

The past two years, we all have feelings, the current economic Chinese, in addition to real estate will soon enter the Mount Qomolangma road stride forward singing militant songs, the top of the world, the other is a bleak scene.

Statistically, it's not ideal. See, after all, macro, micro, the real economy in the end what happened? Cherry house after careful investigation more than a month to understand that some industrial entities could not withstand the temptation to earn quick money, but also to abstinence in retreat, and insist on doing industrial business, but to survive.

Especially layoffs, pay cuts is very common, not only to the production of state-owned enterprises, so a large number of private enterprise employees are also in the income decline situation.

The skin does not exist maojiangyanfu, no income growth, even when the work hang by a thread in the property prices, how long can support?

The state-owned enterprises, Guantingbingzhuan, pay cuts and layoffs

Li Jian in 2012 after graduating from a master of Tianjin Petroleum Institute in the prefix, in his impression, 2014 is the best season of the year, the monthly wages of more than 6 thousand hands, a total of 3000 monthly provident fund, year-end bonus also took 60 thousand, and by 2015, holiday shopping card these small benefits all didn't say, year-end bonus also only more than 10 thousand, 2016 annual income of only 60 thousand yuan, but also often work overtime without overtime pay, year-end bonus is not a penny, now get more than 5 thousand monthly wages, provident fund reduced to 2500.

Li Jian told cherry small house, employee pay reduction, mainly due to the company's performance fell sharply.

Affected by crude oil, natural gas, refined oil prices and other factors lower than the same period last year, 2016 oil turnover was 1 trillion and 620 billion yuan, down 6.3%, net profit of 7 billion 857 million yuan, down 77.9% over the same period last year.

Now, what makes Li Jian very difficult to decide is where to go.

After all, in the state-owned enterprises is a stable job, the country's economic situation is not good, if you can leave where, in the same industry treatment are in decline, but continue to stay, this income, family has been stretched, but also save money to buy a house, the house is no help, can depend on oneself. Li Jian is located in Binhai New Area, this year prices rose from eight thousand to more than 20 thousand, with children who have no house, let them every day in anxiety.

But look around friends and family, but also let Li Jian comfort.

One of his relatives in 2011 began operating the drug business, for 3 years is still a loss, in 2014 to make food has been lost, a loan is not, finally only lend usury, at the beginning of this year when cornered, out of work, into a car tire factory, but not what business, the factory. Not to live, now even not hit anymore.

And his classmates, both husband and wife in a city medical insurance bureau in Hunan, last year did not get a penny prize.

Friends in foreign companies to work, due to limited business, recently, always two days a week classes, five days off.

The class is not good, not good, not good to do business, price is expensive, can you give us a way out!" Summer is here, and Li Jian is constantly feeling the chill of the economic downturn.

In fact, from the beginning of 2015, the central government issued a document, requiring remediation of the central enterprises losses, and strive to use 3 years or so, so that loss making enterprises decreased by 50%.

Beat head can also think of, how to reduce loss? Guantingbingzhuan, enterprise integration, such as Baosteel and WISCO, layoffs, also became one of the combination of essential oil, for example, requires the old employees early retirement.

According to the Ministry of finance data, in 2016, building materials, transportation and construction, real estate and other industries to achieve greater profit growth year on year. Oil, textiles, tobacco and petrochemical industries have seen profits decline year on year. Iron and steel, chemicals, nonferrous metals and other industries.

From this statistics can also see that, relying on policy support industries, such as infrastructure, real estate industry profit growth is the largest.

Half of the central enterprises assets are concentrated in the areas of energy and raw materials, state-owned enterprises, has always been a resource advantage, super serious, low efficiency, raised a bunch of people, eating habits of a secure job, with high welfare work.

Liu Ling in the China Metallurgical Group Tianjin branch, engaged in construction and installation, she told me that the company benefit is not good, but also in the layoffs, wages are not come soon, now in many companies in bankruptcy, merger restructuring, serious wages, a branch was disbanded, on the about 20000000, the employees do not know to find who want to. At the end of last year, the company mainly clean off the staff.

Iron and steel, cement, electricity and other serious excess capacity industry, the loss is more serious.

Coal, for example,In 2014, 2015 consecutive to capacity after the expected market speculation, resulting in coal prices last year rose 200%, in fact, coal production capacity is still excess, 2016-2020 plans 8 tons of production capacity, last year only to 2.9 tons, anyway Chinese is, what love are looting.

Benefit from the coal production capacity, but also led to the upstream and downstream industries, Shandong Wei Jiao group staff told cherry house, they belong to the downstream industries of coal industry, clearing out almost, high pollution, high energy consuming enterprises do not give approval, the rest of the compliance of large enterprises also began to profit growth, corporate profits in April 40 million, a staff of 2000 people, full load production, this year's goal is to achieve profit 150 million yuan.

Like this round of real estate, a lot of four or five wire cities, inventory cycle is still more than 20 months, the house supply is still surplus, but expected to rise, the price was first speculation up.

Another example is power,In April this year, SASAC convened the five meeting that the power of the central enterprises, due to long-term exposure to fluctuations in coal prices and electricity surplus, lead to losses continue to increase, coupled with the current market reform stalled, some power plants regardless of the actual situation, as long as you can get the approval and loans, will continue to build, but banks are more willing to lend to the central anyway, enterprise, national endorsement.

It is expected that the throes of the electricity reform are expected to last for at least 3-5 years. During this period, the treatment of employees will only be reduced and will not increase.

A few years ago the British "economist" launched Keqiang index ", including" industrial electricity, rail freight and long-term loans three items, weights were 40%, 25% and 35%. Industrial electricity consumption, in particular, can reflect economic activity in terms of industrial production and energy consumption.

Therefore, the power enterprises are intuitive to the economic quality. In the Zhejiang Jiaxing nuclear group staff told me that the power now burned coal effects quite much, they also can send nuclear power before and how much fat, full power, but there no shortage of nest electricity is serious, the company originally did not participate in the peak (according to the power to adjust power output, but their) now the holidays are to take part in peak load, because of the economic downturn is really not so much electricity.

In terms of treatment, the nuclear group staff said, unit ten years ago paid so much, and now, because of policy reasons, income is not much, but the welfare drop a lot, in fact, the state-owned enterprises are the same, welfare decreased significantly.

Now the laid-off is lucky, who also do not expect an increase in wages, in fact, state-owned enterprises, the central enterprises who can feel the cold of winter, the year before the people's daily, is expected to lay off 3 million people in the country, this is not a small number.

This does not include some of the institutions, and the financial sector, such as banks, reducing welfare is also a common phenomenon, Ping An Group in the last year since the earthquake happened, a number of departments with revocation, downsizing or even become a pay cut Home Dishes, arrears bonus is not issued, causing employee dissatisfaction, China Merchants Bank although there is no layoffs, but the staff, a person doing two live now, but do not pay.

Some state-owned enterprises are still comfortable

However, not all state-owned enterprises are facing down, reduction in the throes of new layoffs. State supported industries and state-owned enterprises are comfortable.

Mr. Yang is a research institute in a microelectronics industry in Nanjing. Now he is a state-owned enterprise and belongs to the China Electronic Technology Group, producing and designing chips, mainly for military use. Mr. Yang said, because the state does not allow the import of products, technology is leading in the domestic price is N times the cost of a huge, so live good, after all, is within the system to pay their own, is the main state backed investment fund more, but as the enterprise to be self financing, the national annual investment will return. There must be a value to the whole is 2013, the output value of around 3 billion in the last year has reached 5 billion.

Another local state-owned enterprises is also good, a subsidiary of a subsidiary of Guangzhou radio company staff told me that most of the military orders, mostly from within the system of the list, such as public security, maritime bureau, airlines, so relatively stable, the profit is unknown, but it is not bad, staff mobility (general medium. There is a state-owned enterprises, the majority of older employees).<1Two3>


The private sector lacks confidence in China's economy

It should be accurate to say the small and medium-sized private enterprises, survival difficult, is the national well-known facts beyond all dispute over the past few years, even if the credit easing, rather than a share of private enterprises, capital always flows into the central state-owned enterprises and government endorsement of the enterprise, and make money, financial infrastructure, real estate industry.

Funds are not entered into the entity

In fact, from our bank credit data can be seen, although the amount of water, but did not enter the mainstream funds industry entities.

Central bank statistics show that in April the national RMB loans increased by 1 trillion and 100 billion yuan, an increase of more than 542 billion 200 million yuan. Household sector loans increased by $571 billion (essentially mortgage). At the same time, loans to non-financial enterprises and government bodies based on the real economy loans increased by 508 billion 700 million yuan, lower than household loans.

Liu Tao is in the northern four or five line City Commercial Bank Company Department staff, he told the cherry small house, obviously felt now many enterprise management difficult step forward. Especially Small and micro businesses, can also take advantage of the new old have Bentou. Unit this year, because bad debts continue to emerge, the benefits are not as good as before, performance degradation, income has dropped.

But the book from the Bank of Liu Tao's point of view, the rate of bad debts and there is not much change, because many of the loans are dependent on lending, Xudai, companies can linger, but in fact, the operating conditions of enterprises long before, not Xudai will soon die, Xudai is a continuation of death.

The Central Province commercial bank loans to the public manager said, his hand on the enterprise, almost all manufacturing industry in recent years to reduce the net profit of enterprise credit, and the previous difference, sales rose slowly. In the past two years, small businesses have been reduced and concentrated on projects and government procurement, which requires endorsement by local governments.

Lin in a bank in Wenzhou credit department, he also told the little cherry house, now medium-sized enterprises demand for funds is the strongest, smaller enterprises less demand because of the small enterprises are mostly single investment, only do business, not the main industry there is no demand for financing, diversification of business investment, many projects were dragged out on the inside, greater demand for funds, but according to some enterprises the main reaction, recent orders for several months have bottomed out feeling.

Wenzhou began in 2011, after the financial crisis, but we settle down to do industrial, this round of real estate craze, Wenzhou people are absent. Wenzhou's economy grew by 8.4% in the first quarter of this year, ranking fifth in cities across the country.

SMEs in an industrial chain, at the bottom of Pyramid, layers of profits turned over, high tax burden and high cost double backlog, the original capital chain is very tight, but also be diverted upstream and downstream misappropriation of funds. It's hard for banks to give them credit for risky considerations.

Therefore, can not see the hope of private investment, in recent years the growth suffered cliff style decline, from 18% in 2015, fell to the lowest 2.1% in July last year.

In the second half of last year, private fixed asset investment began to rise steadily, but began to decline again in April.

In March 29th this year, held by China CASS Institute of finance strategic quarter macroeconomic situation analysis meeting, the new financial intelligence chief economist Zhong Zhengsheng said that in 50 companies it surveyed, 34% of the enterprises expected this year orders improved, 40% of enterprises will expand production. However, companies are expected to be relatively cautious about earnings and fixed asset investment, with only 8% of firms expected to improve profits, and 14% of firms will expand their investment.

They found that there are four reasons, one is the decline in investment returns, the two is the financial market diversion, such as this year the stock market and the housing market turns hot, "a significant diversion of private funds to the imaginary, the three is the crowding out effect of the government investment, four private entrepreneurs of China economic development confidence.

World processing factory advantage no longer

When the network on the "real estate industry country prosperous," this joke piece, is the real economy practitioners more and more recognized at the same time, I think not only feel sad, the government should have a sense of urgency and fear.

The manufacturing industry of the former world Starving people fill the land., China factory already in 2011, the labor force more in name than in reality, Chinese reached the peak, in 2015 the size of the labour force in 2012 from 937 million to 911 million, this is the China workforce for 4 consecutive years of decline in the absolute number, population dividend gradually lost.

China's labor costs have long been higher than Vietnam, Burma, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, so in recent years, many factories in China have moved to Southeast asia.

At the end of last year, Cao Dewang went to the United States Furui glass factories, hurt people's nerves, Nani? The United States wages so high, can set up factories in the United States but also to make money than Chinese? Incredible.

But Cao Dewang from the aspects of transportation, land, electricity, taxes and other calculations account, in addition to the artificial China than expensive things other than China cheap, so the general ledger is down, it is more profitable to set up factories in america.

What has to be said here is that China's camp has changed, and it is said that the national tax cut has been reduced by 680 billion over the past year, but many small and medium-sized enterprises have been given feedback, the tax has been reduced and the burden has been increased.

Because it has changed to VAT, the tax rate is higher. If it cannot be deducted, the tax will be paid more, and it will be a disaster to the enterprises with higher labor costs. Because some upstream enterprises are not standardized, or unable to issue invoices, it can not be deducted, such as the acquisition of agricultural products, you let farmers how to invoice you? For example, the establishment of enterprises, a huge amount of labor costs, as well as entertainment costs of gray, is unable to find income tickets to deduction.

Old Zhu is a conference incentive travel company, the camp changed to increase, he said that profits plummeted, cost increases, and now the profit margin a year worse than a year.

Who in the end is benefiting?

As far as I know, the tax cuts for trade enterprises are the largest. For example, such a large enterprise TCL, Li Dongsheng openly agree with China's tax is not high, is vested interests.

And the high prices become the last straw for business entities, especially small commodity economy feedback, because the rent is high cost, product prices go up, labor costs rose, so profits are compressed unprofitable, is working for the landlord, high price commercial shops, bubble will adjust.

The real industry is weak and prosperous

The following is the real response to the real economy of a small cherry house interviewed by different objects. For simplicity, name is the code name.

A1: the company's situation is half the layoffs, the boss is 90, do original clothing, a lot of losses. My husband opened a small company, engaged in space design and small projects, one million loss last year, many projects are not good, collect money, mainly upstream arrears not to run away, the boss, in the cell are more difficult to make money. His friends did not pay any debts to the entity, except for a factory building that bought land.

B1: work in Hefei a business park, now a park are few workers, mostly empty factories, before last year, there are a lot of workers, there is no major benefits, only production, a lot of enterprise capital chain rupture, the boss run away, to pay workers collective rights emerge in an endless stream.

This situation occurs before or in 2008-2009, then in a packaging enterprise to work more than a year, began regular holiday mode, only for basic living expenses, my husband this year for a few companies are mostly keep going by painstaking effort of the state, processing and manufacturing of small enterprises.

But most do not understand is that many people now take over family and friends to come up with their parents pension money, tighten the belt, for the power of the family house, the entity is so poor, unemployment may occur at any time, we still have no concerns about hard housing loans.

C1: the company is such, Shenzhen branch and Chengdu branch has been closed, I branch in Shanghai entry for five years now, the number of workers only when the 10% shares of the company, just when the market is up, now only the highest price of 20%,

In 2015 the company increased the stock issuance, ESOP, results have dropped below their cost price, is cheating, the company has defaulted on a variety of subsidies, and I am ready to resign, other colleagues also ready to carry the dead to the collapse of the company, to get compensation, if I insist, can take fifty thousand or sixty thousand, but can not afford to consume. Before, many company leaders, shareholders are selling shares of the company.

D1: in a pharmaceutical factory, if not a listed company, already shut down, Tianjin employees not only into a rotation, a holiday for 3 months, is still losing money, because of the reform, the abolition of drug rebate, doctors to improve the treatment of drug price reduction.

F1: a Shandong photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises in Heze, more than 300 employees, three months wages once, PV has a short season, in fact, really a lot of orders, but we are giving Jiangsu a large PV companies do OEM, no market pricing did not develop overseas business. The flow of production personnel is larger, with the first half of the basic business management personnel in all departments not be.

G1: our company in Guangzhou began to lay off the staff. The salary is basically the same, but it's just that the volume of personal business is larger than before. One person does 2 people's work.

H1: we belong to the manufacturing sector, orders are less than in the early years, mainly raw material prices, workers wages rising, operating costs increased.

I1: where is the pharmaceutical industry, the staff can only go out without adding new employees.

J1: in Shenzhen operates a small printer factory, the business began to fall from three years ago, now stable back to three years ago, the annual wages of workers rose 10%, because the salary is too low it is difficult to attend to the people, but the management income drop instead of 10%, living in Shenzhen, a lot of pressure, but the income can only follow the market, now small plants in torment, and good manufacturers, it is easy to be mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, in order to increase performance.

K1: the side of the pharmaceutical representatives, this year we talk together, we few to finish the task last year, fortunately, this year is very poor, I can sell a quarter of last year to 3 million this year, now only 1 million 800 thousand. The following customers are out of stock, just saying business is bad, not yet last year.

L1: we do led in Shenzhen, the customer business is very weak, mobile phone exports are very weak, less than last year's half.

M1: in Shandong Dongying, companies rely on industry chain development in Shengli Oilfield, mainly responsible for the plant construction, transformation and change later this year, oil efficiency is not good, many factories closed, mostly in favor of heavy industry, the rest is mainly for processing, does not have its own brand, his original factory is located, because the boss gambling, wage arrears, and finally sold.

N1: power equipment enterprise, the public tender only the original 20%, all government procurement and centralized procurement by the government monopoly, the price not only lower the minimum, crush only PA staff wages, centralized, invitation to bid, the average price (rating) bid, rely on the relationship.

O1: in Shenzhen building decoration industry, the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, the decline in the number of projects, the profit level fall 1-2% stage staff and staff not change, streamlining personnel half year plan, affected by the policy adjustment and the real estate market downward impact, developers profit space is further compressed and the development cycle, some expect the market started slow recovery, I the industry by the real estate sector has a significant effect. In addition, this piece of building materials in the first half of the transportation costs up to 30%, for our own cost control is very unfavorable,

Building materials, the invoice is a problem, replacing business tax with value-added tax(VAT) principle ring deduction, tax relief, but combined with the actual situation to promote more difficult, resulting in profit rate is not very ideal.

P1:: I am a real estate trust loan. I feel unemployed in the past few years. I have quite a lot of business in the past two years. The real estate industry chain of people's wages are good, I know a lot of decoration workers a year to save one hundred thousand is very easy, a good bit of ten. Is this hot market for two or three years, many earn 3.5 million, Shoufu is enough in Wuhan.

A relative works for a foreign auto parts company in Wuhan. The main customer is shenlong. Orders are down by 50% this year, and factories are often left without work. But orders for other car companies have fallen little.

Q1: a design institute in Beijing, the beginning of this year, with great leadership emphasizes reducing efficiency, starting in May according to the Department to set up a virtual corporation, when the Department of earning on wages.

R1: the company in the Ningbo Development Zone, is to do battery exports, but the capital chain rupture, insolvency on production, and this two years plan to transition to do electric vehicles, the entity enterprise survival is difficult.

S1: the KIA headquarters is set in Yancheng, they often leave.

T1: the neighbor's import trade in electronic components, profit 30 million last year, so far this year, profits of 1 million, much worse than last year.

U1: my friend works in Hongkong. Since January of this year, he has had nothing to do with his work. Now he has plenty of time to do part-time work!

Near the wholesale market to do summer mat products, but this year's popularity is less than half of last year, Tmall do not have a few, feel the impact of orders! Lele's shop in our city has been closed, it was last month. The new house in our district is decorated, 120 square meters, 1000 pieces, eight months are not rented out, but the house price is four thousand or five thousand.

V1: I did the jade business in Shanghai. Now the price is only 20% of the high in 2013. It's still hard to ship. The current jade, antique business should be the most dismal of all industries, crying for no tears, because the eight provisions of the public spending is gone. In addition, the current funding surface is tight, the people were emptied of real estate money bags. Jade and antiques are the necessities of life.

W1: I do Taobao, selling shoes, orders dropped, down 60% this year, regardless of whether the sales decline, Taobao said the side do not earn money, advertising spending rose, the flow of expensive, had a lot of free flow, now basically become an economy, and a lot of pressure by Tmall, the quality take the poor, sell very cheap.

X1:: in Wenzhou engaged in the electronic power industry, the main supplier to do foreign trade, he reflected, generally busy business this year, 2011 fell down in real estate, many people went back to do business, currently Wenzhou's economy is slowly recovering.

Y1: in Hunan, Yiyang, when I was working at Huarun two years ago, the same store grew by more than 10%. This feeling of consumption is decreased, growth not previously engaged in this category, I picked the fresh products, the shop effect is relatively small, the main consumer groups are in high income groups, the product quality is better than the shop, there is a unique point.

Z1: a new snail Bay wholesale market in Kunming know, everything is Yunnan's largest wholesale market for small items of clothing shoes bedding jewelry materials. The three phase has more than 40 districts, each of which has five floors, 12 blocks on each floor, more than 30 merchants on each street, and 10 office buildings, each of which has 20 floors. Just arrived in Kunming when the snail Bay is how much, how good business is, driven by the hundreds of thousands of jobs, business logistics property snack street business is hot, but now, the two District 17, a street on the head of a door, a district does not add up to twenty before the door, how busy logistics and now, one day have to fill a lot is not dry, although the effect of online shopping, but also not so big. Snack street has closed, consumption shrinking, the economy is really bad, it is difficult to make money.

A2: infrastructure afforestation business is very good, a lot of projects can do, repair high-speed, municipal cosmetology, our business is still very busy.

B2: I do the construction budget, the recent business can also, and now party a very strict cost control, my side price is also very low pressure.

C2: I have a friend who is studying in the UK. Since last year, the fire has not been able to do so. Studying abroad and immigration are very hot now

D2: our game company just took 10 million investment last year, but it still has plenty of money now.

E2: in Anhui, China Mobile, the company did not feel any changes in the operation, wages are much higher than the previous year, no layoffs, hiring every year, the first two or three years, but quite a lot of their resignation.

For 08 years I entered the company, the salary is more than 900 per month, that is two 51 cold noodle bowl, prices at around 1800 yuan monthly salary, now about 7000, 6 yuan a bowl of cold noodle, the price is about 4500.

F2: in Shenzhen Longgang mechanical equipment, especially good business this year than last year, orders increased a lot, now workers busy, not high-tech, mainly is to assemble their own automatic equipment, the production of battery products on.

G2: benefit from the unpopular real estate, hardware is generally good to do, the industrial park inside, I heard some good.

Listed companies: real estate growth performance

Li Hua (a pseudonym) of herniamesh group, he told me about the evolution of the company. Is the predecessor of haoningda, businesses do smart meters, usually to the national network, southern power supply instrument, also belong to the original manufacturing industry, 2012, the company was acquired renamed herniamesh group, although the annual meter manufacturing business and profits, but the development bottleneck, has space to the ceiling, not to expand the scale, so the company ready for transformation, jewelry industry, so the company properties from manufacturing to retail industry.

But the jewelry industry is not good, and the results of the transition to buy Internet banking, that is, P2P.

Look at the cherry house herniamesh group 2016 annual report, the growth performance, mainly is depends on the prior to the acquisition of P2P consolidated statements.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2016, a total of over 100 listed companies, relying on sellers to enhance performance.

For example, Tianyu information, last October in Wuhan to sell 9 sets of real estate, cash 125 billion 160 million yuan.

By selling school district housing to achieve the shell company, such as *ST Ning B, three consecutive years of losses, in September last year, by selling 2 houses in Beijing, value-added 21 million 428 thousand and 800 yuan, to achieve profitability.

East Green shares, a one-time sale of 45 suites, priced at about 20 million 540 thousand yuan.

There is the most ruthless listed company, cloud competition Zhaopin, by selling 186 million yuan.

The main business of these companies are not real estate, but rely on cash company property, to achieve performance growth.

This is also regarded as one of the great wonders of the development of China's entity enterprises.

There are also some companies because their main business is not profitable, by selling assets, equity sales, or investment, mergers and acquisitions and other ways to maintain growth.

According to statistics, listed companies, there are 620 performance increase in last year more than doubled, but there are 43 companies, after deducting non recurring net profit of the year is declining, non recurring gains and losses, the company's main means of non normal business, such as selling of fixed assets, selling equity, access this is a kind of government subsidies.

A lot of surface performance while high growth, but the main business is the huge loss. For example, the electronics industry companies, including Tianjin card, East China Science and technology, yuanwanggu, star technology, CPT technology, computer companies have Tongfang, Qiming information, sea nexis.

Money shortage background, music as a crisis continues. Music as a gem of the leading enterprises, but because of the expansion of the transition in recent years, and now take the lead, big brother is also in the brink of life and death.

May 11th, media reports said, as music, sports will start a new round of layoffs, is expected to scale more than 50%. At the end of last December after the completion of the 20% layoffs, leaving the music as sports over the past few months has more than 100 employees. After the current round of layoffs, as music sports will shrink to 300 people, or even lower, as music, sports, at the peak, the number of employees has more than 1000 people.

The growth of residents' income is slow

I remember that in 2012, the eighteen major countries proposed to increase the income of urban and rural residents, and set a goal that by 2020, GDP and the per capita income of urban and rural residents would double than in 2010.

In the past few years, most of our income should have been increased. In 2016, the per capita disposable income of the country's residents was 23821 yuan, an increase of 8.4% over the previous year. After deducting the price factors, the actual growth was 6.3%.

But compared with our house price increase, the income increase can be neglected. 2016 housing prices rose, a second tier cities, at least more than 50% of it.

Compared to 2010, the per capita income of urban residents increased from 21033 yuan to 33616, an increase of 60%, while housing prices in Shenzhen, for example, turned 5 times. Income growth has never been able to keep pace with the rise in housing prices.

If the calculation of property income, such as house value, that is indeed increased, but if the hands of a house, an increase of 35 times, and how to live, can not cash in, with increased consumption of hair relations?

Of course, if the courageous people who can be a set of two sets of three sets, up sell, did indeed increase the income, this round of high cash, wealth is not so value? The gap between the rich and the poor is widening, and wealth accumulates in the hands of a small number of people who have seen through the Chinese economy.

People always afterwards, was playing in the applause. Speak not to engage in flood irrigation, the result is a flood, everyone worried about that deposit have become waste paper, then rushed into the market like a swarm of bees.

Thousands on thousands of unidentified ordinary working-class Jiepan, at a high level to follow the trend of admission, the person is with me. The country is truly grateful to you for your contributions and sacrifices to the stock market, and the suffering of the people.

In 2015, the stock soared, finally crash cut chives cash. And this round of house prices on the sky, but it is cut people's income for the next twenty or thirty years.

The cage is empty and the bird has not come

Make a cage for birds. In many places, the cage is empty, but the bird has not come yet.

Dongguan, known as the world's factory, 12 million people during the peak period of prosperity, catching wide north, now only 8 million, the old downtown has become as trassient as a fleeting cloud.

Industries can only be upgraded in growth rather than upgraded during the recession. Foreign investment in recent years also in retreat, the end of the first quarter, foreign industrial entrepreneurs number 50181, and 2012 by the end of 57724, four years, foreign enterprises less 7543.

Domestic capital, most probably only in the news network upgrade.

Shenzhen industrial transformation and upgrading, should be considered the most successful, and economic growth has maintained rapid growth, high-tech industry in the forefront of the country, I will take Shenzhen as an example.

HUAWEI is a typical representative of the high-tech field, is also a Chinese name card I publicity, HUAWEI paid has become a folk myth, but from the beginning of this year, HUAWEI is downsizing downsizing, cherry house wrote a HUAWEI layoffs the truth of the article at the end of February, are interested can see.

Since last year the company profit growth unsatisfactory, although end a substantial increase in turnover, such as HUAWEI mobile phone, but it is the leader of the sale, does not translate into high profits, new business profit growth is slow, and the traditional communication services and facing the growth ceiling, forcing HUAWEI to reduce costs through an internal. Change.

Let some HUAWEI employees intuitive feeling is that in May this year sent the year-end awards, far less than expected, even if expatriates in Africa, subsidies and year-end awards are also reduced.

Many HUAWEI employees complain about small cherry houses:

"I have no deposit, but borrowed hundreds of thousands of down payment to buy a house, since then changed life, and then can not be separated from HUAWEI, and a layoff news, legs trembling."."

"In the company is about to stay for two years, if you do not buy it, there should be 300 thousand deposit, but now bought a house, and we have no money for the day."

"Loan five million, a little pressure, and so on, issued a year-end award, paste hundreds of thousands of, but also part of the loan, but the business outlook is uncertain, I do not know when it can be finished."."

Many people admitted that, after carrying high mortgage, the most afraid of unemployment, can not afford to mortgage, and now have a secure job, has become the biggest ideal.

Another high-tech enterprises in Shenzhen staff told me that before 2015, the company is not really concerned about the cost, 16 years later, when the prices of raw materials have been heard, leaders are afraid to sign. They had a salary shift between 5-20% last month, but the hiring was down. The company is now seeking ways to reduce costs.

2016, the company where the office rental Internet Co mostly. But the development is unstable, basically half a year to move out, the office of Shenzhen science and technology park is not good rent, because venture capitalists are not good to take, and many of the entrepreneurial companies have fallen.

Of course, limping, relatively low-end industries, the overall development of the high-tech industry is still relatively good, last year Shenzhen GDP value is 1 trillion and 950 billion, high tech industry was 656 billion 2 million yuan, an increase of 12.2%, is the maximum value of the four pillar industries of Shenzhen increased.

But how many Shenzhen are there in the country?


The entrepreneurial boom failed

The road of entrepreneurship is very bloody, nine dead ten venture, but the slogan shouting, many of the original on the nine to five classes of people are blood cramps, have left the army to join the venture.

This is just a few years accommodation funds, funded venture capital venture capital fund is popular, the prospects for the project a sketch, wow, promising ah, venture money will come up.

The most popular is the concept of the Internet with a shout, mode of subversion of the traditional line, the story is more than an attractive, as long as the Internet plus concept, will be able to get investment fund, the valuation at all is one hundred million, several hundred million.

But most of the projects are basically rely on the burn mode, if you want a future profit, only through pre burn as soon as possible to seize the user market, but the industry can survive only a handful, the rest of the money to burn, but had to leave.

A round of financing is deafening gongs and drums, B round of passion, C round last no way but has yet to wait. Especially after the stock market crash of 2015, the capital market began to ebb, numerous start-up companies from the initial rush becomes hard, until the fall in the broad road midway.

China's initiative in this round of entrepreneurship has actually failed.

The modern financial times of water for each with the concept of the Internet as the death list a statistical analysis, here I have quoted several.


And Internet plus cateringBodycount。 Can be described as the scenery, the death of the tragic. After a scuffle, leaving only the United States group, public comment, hungry, such an industry Unicorn?.

Cause of death:

1, burn war difficult to sustain

Burn with users has become Internet plus food and beverage industry, the basic rules of the game. Those who have the money to spend money like water self catering industry nouveau riche company, company or get the corresponding amount of capital or capital chain joined the melee, had to leave. Moreover, in the initial high subsidies, the harvest of users, when subsidies disappeared, the user will disappear.

2, giant screens of cruel competition

As an entrance, catering has always been favored by the giants. In order to cultivate their own market, the rich and powerful companies with simple and crude way of money market. Is there an end to the melee? If startups want to win my own a space for one person in this competition, in addition to enhance their service quality, but also face the full range of card giants, very difficult.

Two, mutualNetworking + Tourism

Cause of death

1, giant Besieged

From the hotel, buy tickets to the service provider, Internet plus tourism industry has the traditional giant card, and a new giant chase. From online to offline, this industry is more and more like a giant game.

2, Internet penetration slow

Compared to online shopping penetration, China's online travel penetration is obviously inadequate, such as ticket products is low penetration, slow growth. The reason behind this complex, and hard to reverse, but also drag a lot of Internet plus travel company.

The rest of the industry, Internet plus car, education, finance, health care, housing, community, beauty industry, wedding industry, there are a number of death list, especially the Internet financial, also known as P2P, is run away money as everyone knows, we are talking about getting P2P pale, no matter is not regular are afraid.

In fact, each industry, finally able to occupy the market just two or three, the other is difficult to survive, once the capital can not see the hope of your project, it will no longer continue to invest, the company's cash flow is lost, only natural collapse of road.

A few years ago cherry house a friend to leave the original business, the first two years to get venture capital fund, also dry fast, but last year, affected by the stock market, raising funds to institutions, not easy to find, equity investment fund investment is very cautious. Now that they have not fallen, the company has shrunk as a result of poor business.

Their company's office wanted to sublet, and it was rented well before March, but it was obviously hard to sublet in April, and she speculated that it might be less.

Now the most fire is sharing the economy, sharing bicycles has become popular, and what shared umbrellas, sharing rechargeable treasure and so on, it is difficult to do.


Any industry goes big, it is easy to produce bubbles, the Internet plus bubble since last year, but also with the ebb tide of funds began to burst.

And real estate, everyone does not deny that is a huge bubble, but also understand that the real economy is in the recession.

After all, without the real economy, house prices are like castles in the air, collapsing at any moment.

But in the past years, when prices rise, there are people who shouted the collapse of high housing prices, the result is singing empty real estate people to defeat in the end, the same people now like a bull commander Ren Zhiqiang disappeared, and become a god like figure, cult.

People have become accustomed to the historical experience, compared with the future, all know that the bubble, but not many people believe that the bubble will break.

The reason is that the government of socialist economic management with Chinese characteristics is full of confidence that the visible hand can hold down the bubble and want it to go up, and that it will not fall if it does not want it to fall.

If there is such an extraordinary ability, why our economy will be depressed, why is the government now headache?.

As every rose, let a person be caught off guard, every fall, may not make people beware.

What is the economic There's no making without breaking., China best footnote.

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