Do you know how big the Moutai bubble is?2017-05-20 01:54:08 80 ℃
Today, Moutai closed 440.82, a new high, the market capitalization of 553 billion 800 million!
1 、 does Moutai have foam?
Shenzhen Oriental harbor chairman Dan Bin believes that the "Kweichow Moutai stock bubble is not, if Moutai wine at the moment to stop production, the stock value of wine according to the current retail price of 1299 yuan to count, nearly 456 billion 200 million (excluding VAT), but if in the future Moutai wine is no longer in production, sale, each bottle of wine 2000, 5000, or even tens of thousands are may, the absolute value will exceed the market value of 524 billion 600 million Moutai at the moment. With the growth of 50 thousand tons to 80 thousand tons of output, the value of Moutai stock wine will increase substantially."
Mr. Dan Bin thought last month that Moutai would rise to 600!
Is the face?
Tell a story of Dan Bin chase sell.
In 2016, Moutai shares rose 50%, Dan Bin has several products lost more than 20%, investors do not understand, since Dan Bin has been heavily loaded Moutai, the net product is not so bad ah!
Originally, chase sell the bin. He explained, "after the 2015 stock market crash, we draw lessons from 2008 and 2013 Moutai fell 61%, Moutai holdings to only 5%." Dan Bin sell, stop at 200 yuan.
This matter, let Dan Bin depressed for several months, this period of time, Moutai innovation high, and he ran out, shouting Moutai target price 600 yuan! A year ago, stop at 200 yuan, after a year to see the high to 600 yuan, Moutai or that Moutai, Dan Bin is not that Dan Bin!
Time may not be a rose, but a poison!
There's nothing wrong with it! However, Dan Bin's inventory of wine valuation, let a person dumbfounding, he made the data wrong! The original stock fund managers love K-line, you play pistol, not to the operating data of enterprise!
Can Moutai stock wine be valued directly at market prices? Excluding taxes, dealers charge 33%! Can Moutai sell it directly? Why Moutai's electricity supplier revenue even less than 1%? Did you say that Mr. Dan Bin was drinking Moutai and was making a mess of his head?!
How high is the market value of Moutai?!
A shares of the largest four real estate companies, the total value of the market is also higher (Vanke + poly + investment + gold), real estate is better than fried wine! More than the total market value of all coal enterprises! More than A shares of the largest 10 pharmaceutical enterprises total, medicine is better to drink! How can life endure?!
2, Chinese nectar in the universe there is no frame of reference?
April 2016, sina finance interview with Guizhou Moutai chairman Yuan Renguo, when Yuan Renguo said"There is a certain distance away from surpassing Moutai Diageo, Moutai's goal is to catch up with Diageo".
Yuan Renguo never imagined how vulnerable his goal was! Market madness, so that Yuan Renguo in a year to achieve the goal!
In April 10th, Moutai's market value for the first time beyond Diageo, become the world wine king, then, Moutai has been high, constantly opened the gap with diageo!
The goal of the wine king is no longer the target of Moutai, so who will be the next target for Moutai?
Before answering this question, let's see how Moutai is so prosperous
Moutai's prosperity is partly because of China's economic prosperity, especially the rise of the wealthy class, and there are also factors contributing to the false boom in the spread of money.
Another important reason is that the operating system behind Moutai, most investors do not know, Moutai is the only winery production factory, the world by the army in charge of security guards, Moutai transport, comparable to the banknote, Moutai is not only in the wine, or wine, was designed for Chinese army. It can be said that once the war, folk would not be able to drink Moutai, directly to the front to pull all the soldiers to victory and bolstering the.
Because of this, Moutai distillery do not worry about the money problem, not because the listed shareholders change management and market system, it is not necessary to meet the various needs of shareholders. Kweichow Moutai in the last ten years, only in 2006 launched 10 shares for 10 shares of high transfer program, the rest of the year almost do not transfer, but not in terms of dividends. This is the birth of high stock prices, and continue to attract investors an important reason.
Of course, the special status of Moutai, and can not guarantee that the price will continue to rise, the economic crisis of 2008, beginning in 2012 the strong anti-corruption, Moutai shares appeared more than once by the cut.
Right now, buying Moutai represents a value investment,Cause some analysis to fall into an irrational stateEven a lot of brokers in pursuit of concern, its research report in the short term Moutai's stock price is expected to rise by more than 50%, which is indeed worthy of vigilance.
From the point of view of pure market, Moutai has two big limitations: one is the limitation of market expansion caused by price and output; the other is the limitation of demand caused by the scene of consumption.
The special geographical location and water required for the production of Moutai, Moutai currently limits its production, annual output of 40 thousand tons of wine, plans to 2020 to reach 50 thousand tons, equivalent to one hundred million bottles of 1 pounds loaded flying Moutai, on average 14 Chinese a year can only consume a bottle of Moutai.
But from the price point of view, even if 14 people a year consume a bottle of flying Moutai, calculated according to the orders a bottle of flying Moutai 1300 yuan, everyone is equivalent to giving more than 100 blocks, and these one hundred blocks can be purchased at least 40 bottles of beer, or at least 30 bottles of coke,This doomed Moutai to be a luxury, not an ordinary consumer.
Throughout the world's largest, best selling and best growing companies, none of the main industries is luxury, because the limitations are too great.
In addition, Moutai consumption scene is often gathering, giving gifts in nature, you can hardly imagine a person from the wine bar out of a bottle of Moutai, since the use of self drink, but wine, beer, beverages is OK, which leads toMoutai's consumer culture is difficult to mass dissemination and popularization, the demand for imagination is limited.
Talking about market space,Moutai benchmark companyThat should not be Coca-Cola and other companies, especially in the current market value of more than Diageo liquor listed companies is no longer Moutai reference object. Instead, you should target LVMH (MOET & CHANDON, Hennessy, LVMH).
For many consumers, or families, consuming Moutai and buying LV are in fact the same level of demand.
Up to now, LVMH group has more than 60 brands, covering 70 countries, with a total market capitalization of 100 billion euros, or about 750 billion yuan.
LVMH group's market capitalization reached this level, is through continuous mergers and acquisitions, expansion came, just now, LV annexed Dior (Dior), pulled it into the LVMH territory.
The group currently owns fashion leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, jewelry and watches, Wine and spirits, the total annual sales of nearly 300 billion RMB (including Wine and liquor accounted for about 10%, net profit of 30 billion).
Moutai is currently 50 billion sales, net profit of 16 billion 700 million, although Moutai profit margins higher, but the overall LVMH group there is still a big gap.
If the Kweichow Moutai have very strong brand support, then the LVMH group may favorably, in addition to well-known leather products in Louis Weedon, champagne and liquor, Moet and Chandon, Hennessy, triumph's imperial champagne.
Compared with the LVMH group, Moutai has a natural ceiling, in addition to several limitations of the before mentioned above, other such as single business, internationalization is difficult, can not do the market mergers and acquisitions and so on, are the objective factors affecting the stock price in the market.
Moreover, LVMH group's current market capitalization of 100 billion euros, but also in the peak period after the rally, its market capitalization rose from 70 billion euros to 100 billion euros, it was completed in less than a year and a half. At the end of 2015, the LVMH group had a market capitalisation of only 73 billion euros. That is to say, the market value of the LVMH group has risen by 35% in less than a year and a half.
At this point to buy Moutai, logic is very simple, the game of the stock price. In fact, from the purely performance point of view, has exceeded expected response, and if you continue to promote buying Moutai is worth investment, this is a problem.
If there is no wrong guess, the next few days, Moutai's market capitalization of trillions of arguments will be rampant, the stock price of 600 of the speech will continue to appear!
This is normal, after all, the A-share market has always been on the rise when it is easy to go too far, and when it is too easy to fall a little more excessive A!
Chinese nectar in the universe has no reference, luxury goods can not meet the appetite of speculators, at this time, blindly chasing the high, I'm afraid the cost will be very painful!
- In the previous：He was the man behind Ma Huateng and is now China's leading charity
- The next article：Finance breakfast 2017.05.20 Saturday
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