Can not have both fish and bear's pawn, Mongolia why China is heavily guarded?

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Can not have both fish and bear's pawn, Mongolia why China is heavily guarded?

2018-05-04 20:26:27 311 ℃

As early as the 17th century, the Qing government incorporated both inside and outside Mongolia into the sphere of influence. In 1911, after the Revolution of 1911 broke out, China’s internal warlords fought in a melee and external powers broke up. Under the protection of Russia, under the protection of Russia, Outer Mongolia declared its independence on December 18, 1911. After the last feudal dynasty in China was destroyed by the Qing Dynasty, the Beiyang government also seized the opportunity to restore the sovereignty of Mongolia in the Soviet Union and Belarusian civil war. However, with the unity and strength within the Soviet Union, coupled with the internal warfare in China, China eventually lost its sovereignty over Mongolia and Mongolia. In 1945, the Nationalist Government and the Soviet Union signed the "Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Allies". The government of the Republic of China allowed the outcome of a referendum based on fairness to determine the independence of Mongolia. Ultimately, 97.8% of Mongolian citizens supported independence. On January 5, 1946, the Nationalist Government formally recognized the independence of Outer Mongolia.

Although Mongolia is ostensibly an independent sovereign state, during the entire confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States, Mongolia was no more than a survivor of the Soviet Union. Politically, the Soviet Union highly controlled Mongolia. The attitude towards China is not very friendly, even hostile.

In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. In the face of the great decline of the national power in the North and Russia, whose control was weakened, Mongolia has not changed its hostile attitude toward China with its sharp increase of national power in the south.

Under the situation that Sino-Russian relations have been warming up, it is reasonable to say that Mongolia has no need to stand side by side. Moreover, with the decline of Russia and the rise of China, Mongolia can rely on its geographical advantage and skill to maximize its interests and gain its maximum benefit, and then substitute itself for Russia's strategic space. Finally, Russia is a resource-based economy, and Mongolia is also a big mineral resource country. In terms of economy, the two countries will have a somewhat more competitive relationship, and Russia will have little effect on the economic development of Mongolia. In this context, the deep inland Mongolia will choose to deepen its economic cooperation with China and will soon get on the road to wealth.

However, even if so, politically, Mongolia remains pro-Russian and guards against China; culturally, the anti-Chinese sentiments of the Mongolian people have long been on the rise; economically, Mongolia is also the one that can change its fate. China has many concerns and cooperation has not been smooth.

Mongolia isWhat is so "not aware of the current affairs"? Why does Mongolia want to oppose China?

Yun Shijun will do specific analysis.

In history, China and Mongolia had been killed for thousands of years and it was known that the Qing Dynasty unified them. While the nomadic civilization in Mongolia and the farming culture in the Central Plains are difficult to integrate, the Qing government suppressed its growth by restricting the Khalkha Mongolia (ie, outside Mongolia), which would inevitably arouse their dissatisfaction and even hatred towards China. .

Actually, Mongolia, which is adjacent to the core area of ​​China and belongs to the East Asian continent, was annexed by the Qing Dynasty. In the face of a rising China, it will inevitably not have been “a snake bite for ten years”. Worries.

Of course, history has become a thing of the past. Besides, there is no history in which country and neighboring countries. It is said that Russia had once occupied more than one million square kilometers of land in China. Today, China is not ignoring its former suspicions, and it has developed friendly and good-neighborly relations with Russia and deepened political and economic cooperation.

Therefore, Mongolia's prejudices about history are biased. After all, it is more important to live well in the present.

Today, China wants to imitate the fact that the DPRK “engaged in” Mongolia. It does not have any real support at all.

In the first place, Mongolia is, after all, an independent sovereign state, and China has long been acquiesced by the fact that neither the "international law" nor the contemporary international political rules allow China to take special measures. If this is not the case, international public opinion will be overwhelmed by pressure, and it will cause collective panic among neighboring countries in China. At that time, will China not place its own national interests and geopolitical strategy in an endless abyss.

Second, Russia will strongly rebound China’s annexation of Mongolia. Mongolia is an important strategic buffer between these two world-class powers, and Russia can not tolerate China's annexation of Mongolia. China is not strong enough to completely suppress Russia, and Russia has no second split body. How does China come to annex Mongolia?

It seems that Mongolia does not have to be like a hedgehog to maintain a significant distance from China. At the very least, economically, cooperation between Mongolia and China is the wisest choice. In terms of politics, Mongolia can continue to rely on Russia.

However, Mongolia's economic cooperation with China is not willing to do so. Why is this?

From the geographical structure, the northern edge of the East Asian continentThe middle is exactly the Mongolian Plateau. The three sides of the East, South and West are all surrounded by China. It is the geographical center area that connects China's northeast, north, northwest and Xinjiang.

In the era of farming, the nomadic people used such a geocentric position to concentrate their military forces to launch attacks on any plate in the east, south, and west of North China. However, China has a large land area and a long border line. In the era of limited human technology, all sections are relatively isolated. Once a section suffers from foreign enemies, it is difficult to obtain support from the other two sections. In this way, only the walls can be built to prevent the invasion of foreign enemies. This type of fortification consumes internal resources for a long period of time and is passive. This is why the nomadic peoples outside the country are an important reason for the millennium dream of the Central Plains.

Into the industrial age, humans have made a qualitative breakthrough in their ability to conquer nature, coupled with the emergence of hot weapons, the nomadic military has plummeted. Although Mongolia can rely on special geographical conditions to maintain its independence, this independence is far inferior to that of agricultural civilization.

With the promotion of science and technology, China has already realized the transition from farming civilization to industrial civilization. The size of China's core area is far beyond that of Mongolia, and there are many areas suitable for industrial and trade development. Mongolia itself is a landlocked country, coupled with the high altitude of the Mongolian Plateau, together hindered the pace of industrial civilization system. This means that Mongolia is not a threat to China. On the contrary, China still has the power to thoroughly assimilate Mongolia.

Although Mongolia is rich in resources, it can rely on its geographic advantages in the four regions of Northeast China, North China, Northwest China, and Xinjiang, and deepen its economic cooperation with China to turn its mineral resources into real wealth. Raise the national GDP and people’s living standards. But there must be some gains and losses. This kind of in-depth exchange will also bring Mongolia influence from China in addition to other aspects of the economy.

The population of Mongolia is only 3 million, and the original civilization system is very backward. What should we do to resist the entry of modern civilization? Mongolia is caught under the attack of China and Russia. In other words, only China and Russia can serve as their external support, and it is difficult to receive radiation from other slightly larger civilized systems. Mongolia itself has a high topography, a relatively harsh environment, and limited geographical strength. It is very difficult to develop industries on its own, and cooperation with China and Russia has become the best way to develop its economy.

Politically, Mongolia is pro-Russian and economically pro-Russian is a problem.

First of all, today's Russia has long since regained its glory during the Lian period. Although it is very powerful in military affairs, it is in a long-term economically weak state and has a bright future.

Next, The border between Russia and Mongolia is Siberian, and its strength is already weak. Mongolia is only bordering Russia on the north, land is embedded in the hinterland of East Asia in the south, and Siberian Railway, the artery in the Far East, is difficult to radiate to Mongolia.

Finally, Mongolia is also a resource-based country with abundant underground resources. The GDP of Russia is also mainly driven by the export of resources. There is a lot of competition between the economy and Mongolia.

Obviously, in economic terms, it is difficult for Russia to help Mongolia. Since Russia does not have that ability, it will only rely on China. However, Mongolia will also face the danger of being Chinese.

Mongolia has made a difficult and civilized system is the ideological basis for a country to maintain its independence. Once it is assimilated by China, then how can Mongolia be an independent country?

In terms of geopolitical structure, Mongolia belongs to the East Asian continent, and China is a yellow species, and China itself has many Mongolians, and it is easier to assimilate Mongolian culture. Once Mongolia and China are deeply integrated at the economic and cultural level, the consequences for Mongolia are disastrous.

Of course, China did not force the annexation of Mongolia. However, under the offensive of modern civilization, the Mongolian people will inevitably not have a strong desire to live a better life. With China’s deep cooperation, it will be difficult for Mongolia to maintain its independence.

The elite in power in Mongolia naturally do not want to see this happen. They also want to open up a third road in addition to China and Russia. However, the geopolitical situation between China and Russia has determined that it is difficult for any third-party forces to enter Mongolia. Russia cannot take the Mongolian economy to take off, and China can help Mongolia promote economic development but it makes Mongolia uneasy, which is equivalent to a deadlock.

The Mongolian elite used anti-China sentiment to influence the people in order to maintain national independence. Although it has hindered the progress of China-Mongolia economic cooperation, at least it can maintain superficial independence. The fish and bear's paw can not have both, before the national survival, the national economy and people's livelihood also become victims.

So, does Mongolia have to stay permanently trapped in such deadlock? What breaks the law?

Focus on WeChat Public Number: Marble, Yun Shijun continues to interpret for you in the next section.

This article is the marble chapter 193 of the geopolitical series. Interpretation of the Inside Story of the Great Powers and Analysis of the Political Depth Logic, Please use WeChat to search for the public number: Marble, and watch all the articles on the geopolitics of the Marble King