Iraq is about to split. Which country will be the next to be dismembered?

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Iraq is about to split. Which country will be the next to be dismembered?

2017-09-28 18:48:27 257 ℃

First military commentator: the wolf in the sky

According to local news media Kurdish region in Iraq, the Supreme Council of Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region referendum held on 25 said in a statement, 4 million people in the Kurdish region in nearly 3 million 300 thousand people cast their votes in the Kurdish independence referendum, the proportion of more than 78%, the number of investment in favor of the Kurdish region from Iraq has exceeded 90%. As a result of this outcome, another major problem in the Middle East is in front of the world. How to deal with the Kurdish referendum result has become a new hot spot in the geopolitical contest in the middle east.

The Iraqi government has reiterated its decision not to recognize the outcome of the referendum. The Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi said: "the Iraqi government and the district government will not vote for dialogue, because it is unconstitutional." Iraqi Prime Minister in the referendum, when the world order, the security forces to protect the threatened people". On Monday, the Iraqi parliament passed a resolution calling on the government of Baghdad to take all necessary measures to close all border crossings in the Kurdish area. In addition, vote for prime minister Abadi as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and controlled by the Kurdish militants since 2003 in all areas of the deployment of the army. The justice authorities in Baghdad have issued directives to track down bank funds in Kurdish areas and Kurdish politicians' money from oil sales. In addition, practical action will be taken in the areas under the actual control of the Kurdish regional government to deal with the referendum on the independence of the Kurdish region.

The Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi had warned that the Kurds decided unilaterally referendum, Iraq and regional security, and is unconstitutional and undermine domestic peace ". Neighboring Turkey also indicated that without acknowledging the outcome of the referendum, it will "take all necessary measures" to safeguard the integrity of the country. Iran has also warned Kurdish that it will increase pressure on Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region and suspend all flights to and from the region. The United States and other western countries are also worried about the impact of anti terrorist operations in the Middle East, but also expressed opposition to the independent referendum held in the Kurdish autonomous region. After the referendum results, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations have expressed their support for the reunification of Iraq, and hope that the reservoir area and the central government of Iraq will solve the problem through dialogue.

Iraq and the attitude of the international community is clearly not to hold a referendum on the Kurds as being accepted by the Kurdish autonomous region leader Barzani said, since the overthrow of Sadam Hussein in 2003, "the cooperation between the Kurds and Iraq has failed, he said:" we expect the parties have different reactions, but we believe that no matter what the risks and costs, rather than waiting for total despair...... In order to define the border or strengthen the referendum is not an established fact. We have a dialogue with the Iraqi government to solve the problem. This dialogue will last one or two years."

Kurdistan is one of the most ancient nations in the Middle East, the total population of about 30 million, is the fourth largest nation in the Middle East, due to historical reasons, Turkey is divided in Syria, Iraq, Iran and other countries, because scattered in different countries, they become the Middle East's largest countries do not have their own ethnic groups. As a result of the dispersion living in different countries, the Kurds have been in a weak position in the country, the economic development level and political status are also in a weak position. For a long time, the independence of the Kurds has been a strong desire to establish the state, but by the opposition of various countries, the Kurdish issue has become the second most important issue in the Middle East after the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East in recent years has provided a rare opportunity for the Kurds to grow. The control of the Kurds has been severely weakened, as Iraq and Syria have been caught in a war situation. After the rise of extremist organization Islamic state, the geopolitical pattern in the Middle East has had a great impact. In order to combat Islamic state extremist organizations, the United States and other countries to take armed Kurdish fight against Islamic state "strategy, Turkey and Iraq, although expressed strong opposition and dissatisfaction, but in the fight against Islamic state war to become the Kurdish terror ally", its power is growing rapidly the control of the site, expanding.

With the action against the Islamic state into the end, greatly expand the strength of the Kurds don't want to go back to the "two class citizen" status, the independence of the strong will, to form their own nation, the referendum is the direct expression of intention.

The problem of Kurdish independence referendum countries apparently moving the cheese, if the first means to recognize the results of the referendum, the Iraqi national division, not only that, there will be a chain of Turkey, Syria demonstration effect on the territory of Iran, Kurdish threat to these country's territorial integrity and national unity, so these countries have made strong the voice of opposition, and expressed strong determination to safeguard national unity.

At present, the Iraqi Kurdish region while the referendum results have been released, but the Kurdish want to build their own countries also face difficulties, countries will not accept this result, the international community does not want unrest in the Middle East and added new waves.

But the problem is clearly not as simple as it looks. The issue surrounding the Kurdish referendum can be said to be an undercurrent.

Israel, one of the Middle East powers, is supportive of the Kurdish referendum. As everyone knows, Israel in the Middle East independent since the founding of new China, has been in the state of Arabia due to hostility and surrounded by geopolitical environment is very bad, and therefore the state of Arabia had several large-scale armed conflict, support for Kurdish independence, it is helpful to improve the situation in Israel, it faces the pressure reducing safety.

Although the United States and the European Union expressed verbal safeguard Iraq's independent attitude, but they are actually able to grow behind the Kurdish forces, it is in their support, the Kurds militarynot can expand rapidly, and play "force against extremist organization Islamic state" role, if openly oppose Kurdish independence referendum the result is, will take the lead to burn the bridge after crossing it notoriety, Kurdish resentment. Moreover, these countries have to "respect public opinion" hanging in the mouth, face more than 90% Kurds to support the independence of the "public opinion", they cannot do.

More importantly, with the evolution of geopolitical pattern in the Middle East, Russia's influence in the region continues to expand, the Syria government has to stabilize the heel, constantly consolidate the status of Iran, great changes have taken place in Turkey's attitude to the west, how to balance this result is very important to them is, especially to prevent the formation of Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria front in the Middle East, to prevent Turkey backward Russia, western countries are the United States need to consider the issue, they cannot exclude the use of Kurdish referendum results, against these countries, the Middle East reshuffle, restructuring in favor of their geopolitical considerations.

The referendum is on the Middle East and the international community to send a hot potato, this problem is not handled well, will set off a new round of Middle East geopolitical crisis, then more countries involved, the impact of greater strength, destructive will also be stronger. If the Middle East falls into a new mess, it will be an unprecedented "war of chaos", which will have a major impact on the global political economy. Therefore, the Middle East countries and the international community need to properly deal with and deal with the outcome of the referendum on the Kurds in Iraq, and prevent individual countries from bringing new unrest and disaster to the region because of their own selfish interests.

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