What is the possibility of the second Korean War2017-12-28 18:25:49 758 ℃
Chinese think tank (WeChat: huayujunshi)
about whether the United States will force on North Korea, the U.S. government, Secretary of state Tillerson and the White House -- there is disagreement. The former indicates that the United States can have no conditions for dialogue with the DPRK, while the latter denies that it is a good opportunity for dialogue. Nevertheless, for the outside world, more and more people are beginning to believe that only force can solve the nuclear issue. In China, the statement of war has been more and more popular in the near future. There is a consensus with certainty made two days, one in December 18th, one is in South Korea after the Winter Olympics in Pingchang. But the previous time had passed, and the war did not happen.
should not doubt Trump's determination to strike North Korea by force, but it is doubtful whether the second Korean war will happen, especially in the above-mentioned dates. In September 2017 North Korea tested sixth nuclear weapons, I said, the military showdown moment in the next time, I am referring to the next is North Korea to conduct a seventh nuclear test, North Korea has the actual combat or evaluation of American Native American intercontinental missile capability. I still maintain this judgment. North Korea in early December and launched intercontinental ballistic missile range farther than the last, North Korea said to be able to play to the United States, but the United States expert assessment that the ability from the actual combating beauty throughout there are still gaps. So, before this premise is satisfied, I tend to think that the war will not break out soon.
in addition, to analyze whether the war will occur, we should also look at the attitudes of the parties concerned and prepare for the war. The nuclear issue related parties involved are the Han Russia, the first four is mainly related to.
said the United States, Trump's personal determination is important, but not the equivalent of the U.S. government to resolve, I said the U.S. government refers to the administrative and legislative departments, administrative departments of the State Council, mainly is the White House and The Pentagon, mentioned above, the White House, the State Council may have different attitude on the war but, if the president decided to play, they mainly carry out the will of the president. The problem is the US Congress. Since George W. Bush launched the Iraq war, the president after the first hit (Xiang Guohui) played by Sadam, but in view of the war in Iraq has weapons of mass destruction is proved there is no lessons, and the nuclear issue is not something urgent emergency, Congress is not likely to be without authorization before that Trump launched the Korean war. In other words, there is a debate on whether Congress needs to fight against the DPRK. But to this day no debate has been seen in Congress.
as for the American society, although the number of people who agree to force strikes is more than before, in general, the American society, including public opinion, has not formed the majority consensus about the issue of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue by force. The US government did not mobilize the war to the people. North Korea is not Iraq, although a few scholars believe that North Korea's military cannot withstand a single blow, but it has a large standing army, and nuclear weapons in hand, and mountainous, if the United States really want to force against North Korea, it can not be built on the North Korean military hit without hypothesis, when Clinton also wanted to use force to resolve the nuclear, but the evaluation the U.S. is at least tens of thousands of people die. So, in case the war fell into the American government, it would be difficult to explain it to the people. Therefore, before the war is launched, we must mobilize the people to prepare them for the war. The attitude of the nationals, in turn, also affects the attitude of the Congress to the war.
it takes time to engage in national mobilization and other related preparations, including the military, but it has not yet been seen in the United States. Therefore, it is very difficult to launch a war in the short term.
look at North Korea again. Don't look at the Korean War every day to hang in the mouth, threatening war with South Korea, according to South Korea's new military exercises, North Korea said the war is inevitable, but in fact, it is better than anyone "fine", the "war" only on the mouth, the reason is very simple, with North Korea's strength, it is not the most war. So, people will see a phenomenon, as long as the US South Korea military exercises, North Korea on the mouth is very tough, but it can't launch missiles or other force during the exercise provocation, because it is very clear that once this is done, it may have backfired, the allied force suffered blow. So, in the face of increasing the risk of war, North Korea's "paper tiger" character suddenly exposed, commissioned by Russia sent a message to the United States, to direct dialogue with the United states. It can be said that the Korean War of war is the performance of the domestic look, so that people have a sense of crisis. But the people have been numb. It will be careful to avoid the "gunshot" of the United States, and it will not give the United States an excuse for the war. The attitude of
South Korea is also a factor that restricts the attack on North Korea by the US force. In general, the Korean government and the people are opposed to the emergence of second wars on the peninsula. The president said repeatedly in the Yin, without the consent of Korea, no one is allowed to wage war on the peninsula. In the first half of December, in the early days of the December, when the Chinese people were widely known that the United States was about to launch a war against the DPRK and even the Chinese foreign ministry had to respond, the author was meeting in South Korea. I asked some friends in Korea, whether to force against North Korea, said don't agree.
the main reason for the opposition to the war by the government and the people of Korea is that Seoul is too close to the artillery of the North Korea.
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