Social commentary: The US Democratic Party regained the House of Representatives, and several happy families

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Social commentary: The US Democratic Party regained the House of Representatives, and several happy families

2018-11-08 00:25:00 16 ℃

The Democratic Party of the United States regained control of the House of Representatives that lost eight years on Tuesday and gained the power to challenge President Trump’s maverick ruling style. Although the Republican Party still maintains a majority in the Senate, Trump will no longer have a breakthrough in major policies. The result of this election is a sign that the controversy over Trump’s ruling line has intensified and that American voters want to restrict him.

But Tuesday’s election does not mean a turning point in Trump’s political destiny. He also has the opportunity to mobilize his supporters, unite the Republicans, and confront the Democratic candidates in the next 2020 presidential election. Fight for re-election. Obama won the re-election of the US president in 2012 after the Democratic Party lost the House of Representatives in 2010.

In the case of the Republican losing the House of Representatives, Trump faced two choices: making adjustments or further strengthening his style. The former is conducive to the support of the middle voters in the presidential election two years later, while the latter is conducive to consolidating their basics, pushing the responsibility of the two parties to the split of the congress and more serious political squabbles to the Democratic Party, according to Trump. The character, he is more likely to choose the latter.

The focus of the next political struggle in the United States will be in the domestic sphere. The biggest suspense is whether the Democratic Party will use the simple majority of the House of Representatives to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Because the impeachment president needs more than two-thirds of the support of the Senate, the impeachment is almost impossible to succeed, but the impeachment process is attractive to the Democratic Party because it can make the president embarrassed and crack down on his campaign re-election plan. But all this depends on the progress of the independent prosecutor’s investigation of the “Tongmen Gate”.

In the controversial international issues between the two parties, Trump’s policy will face new obstacles, such as the Korean Peninsula issue, and Washington’s current moderate attitude toward Pyongyang may be more accused. The gentle interaction between Trump and Putin will also be under greater pressure. Of course, the House of Representatives has limited diplomatic power, and what Trump wants to do is stressful and capable.

The possibility of Sino-US relations being affected by the midterm election results seems to be the smallest. The reason is that the toughness against China is one of the highest rates of reconciliation between the two parties in the United States. The Democratic Party did not attack Trump’s trade war with China in the midterm elections. In addition, the Democratic Party is more high-profile on human rights issues, so it was interviewed by Global Times reporters. None of the Chinese scholars believe that the loss of the House of Representatives will have a direct impact on Trump’s China policy.

The Sino-US relationship has become worse. The United States does not accept the psychological background of China’s rise. The customs war has the personal imprint of President Trump. The problem now is that it is difficult to reduce the overall tension of Sino-US relations. This is also the direction in which Beijing and Washington need to work together to promote change.

If the United States improves its foreign relations, the earliest adjustments will probably occur in the direction of Europe. The Trump administration has greatly weakened the unity of the two sides of the Atlantic, hurting many feelings and causing serious conflicts between Europe and the United States in trade, climate change and Iran. In the face of the results of the mid-term elections in the United States, the most secret and self-satisfied should be the political elites of Europe.

Japan, South Korea and Australia will also be happy, and they will hope that Trump will be more moderate to their Asia-Pacific allies.

Can this be seen as a blow to global populism? It is hard to say that the relationship between the US midterm elections and globalization is still very uncertain. The Republican Party still holds the Senate. Trump has suffered setbacks, but he has not lost the entire front. He still has the capital to "do himself" and only make some technical adjustments to continue to promote his "American priority" philosophy. There is still a high degree of uncertainty in future international relations.

The Chinese do not need to be illusory about the changes in American politics, and our interests cannot be expected to be protected because of the practice of American voters. China is doing its own thing, which is more secure than anything else.