Yingluck is waiting for Maduro? The United States is also afraid of Venezuela becoming Syria2019-02-09 09:17:43 52 ℃
External intervention is difficult to be effective as long as Maduro can fully control the army. Not only that, as long as Maduro can fully control the army, any foreign intervention will be regarded as an aggression against Venezuela, which will not threaten Maduro, but may increase Maduro's support rate. Flies do not bite seamless eggs. At any time, this is certain. As long as there is no internal disorder, there will be no opportunity for others to intervene.
Look at the various so-called revolutions in Central and Northeast Africa before, the main reason for their success is that internal problems have arisen.
For example, in Egypt, Mubarak had been in power for so long, but at a critical moment, the army suddenly defected and Mubarak had to step down. The same is true of Libya. It is not terrible to have opponents. What is terrible is that after the opponents have received foreign support, some of the army's rebellion has passed and they have the strength to fight against the government forces.< p> Syria's long-term confrontation has become a contest of multi-national forces because of the split within the army from the very beginning.
The same is true of Ukraine. Yanukovych is totally incapable of controlling the army. He remains neutral at the critical moment. Yanukovych falls and Ukraine falls into civil war.
More directly, Thailand. With the opposition pressing forward, the Anglo-Latin government struggled. At the last moment, the army launched a coup, and Anglo-Latin collapsed, eventually exiled abroad. The advantage of
Maduro lies in that, with the lessons learned from the past, especially the mistakes of Ukraine and Syria, the latter will not risk pushing the country into civil war if they have a little sense of responsibility for the country.
But Maduro's control of the army seems to be not stable at present, and a small number of troops have defected before.
If Maduro fails to wipe out this small group of rebels in a short time, the situation will continue to deteriorate and more troops will defect.
But what makes Madurov better than the former Bashar, Gaddafi, Mubarak, Yanukovich people is that the United States is not the United States of America eight or nine years ago.
Ten years ago, although the economic situation of the United States began to deteriorate, it was still adjusting its international strategy rather than contracting in an all-round way, daring to deploy armed forces abroad.
The United States supported the Syrian rebels to overthrow Bashar, but as a result, Syria fell into civil war and Isis forces emerged, and the United States could not completely control the situation. After Trump came to power, the United States was actually shrinking in its international strategy and was unwilling to intervene directly in military conflicts between more countries and regions by force.
Now the United States has not completely withdrawn from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, and the risk of opening a new battlefield in Latin America is relatively high.
In particular, the major United States allies, Colombia, Peru and Brazil, have shown positive performance, but if Guaido cannot stand on its own ground, the cost of forcible intervention will be high and not necessarily affordable.
If we have to make up our minds to take this opportunity to solve Venezuela and completely eliminate instability in this backyard area of the United States, the cost will be relatively high. More importantly, Russia has expressed its support. Cuba also has an army in Venezuela. It's hard to say who's dead when there's a real melee.
And once Venezuela, like Syria, falls into a long-term melee, it will inevitably spread to the United States. Therefore, the United States will be more cautious and will not force to solve the problem.
Therefore, at least now is not a good time for external forces to intervene in Venezuela's situation, and Maduro still has time to control the situation.
This depends on whether he has the ability to quickly control the situation in a short time, especially whether he can establish the full support of the army for him.
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