Perry Anderson | view: the future of the five strong pattern -- the United States and Russia Indo European, will be staged in the new "European coordination"?2016-11-02 00:03:58 2056 ℃
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Nineteenth Century "five strong rule" (Pentarchy) system through the balance and coordination between the European powers, to maintain the western world for nearly a century of relative peace. In twenty-first Century, China, the United States, Russia, the EU can reproduce the new "five pattern" it? Or is it a new pattern?
In 1822 Congress of Verona, Britain and other countries do not want to (Russia, Austria, Prussia, France) intervention in the internal affairs of other countries, from the European coordination mechanism.
"American foreign policy and the think tank" is a new book published by Professor Perry Anderson, a famous professor Marx. In October 18th, Professor Anderson at the Peking University published a "concert of powers: Nineteenth Century, in a speech on the world's ability construction is similar to the nineteenth Century European coordination system and the hegemony can end in twenty-first Century to do the analysis, he believes that the existence of cracks and hidden power coordination mechanism in twenty-first Century.
Professor Anderson at Peking University
Perry Anderson (Anderson Perry) (1938 -) is a famous contemporary Marx's historian, thinker and activist.
Perry Anderson believes that the United States as a single dominant in today's world, but in many aspects of the traditional practice of the nineteenth Century, the future of the stability of the international system to create uncertainty,The formation of the "five patterns" (the United States, China, Russia, India and the European Union) will be a slow and complicated process.
The game between big powers never stopped.
The European order, which was formed by the Vienna conference in early nineteenth Century, was the first national coordination system in the western history. From 1814 to 1815, Russia, Austria, Prussia and England held a meeting in Austria to discuss Vienna, defeated Napoleon after the European order, and formed a "five rule" system and after the restoration of the french.
Clemens Metternich, the founder of the European coordination
The most important purpose of this system is to prevent the French Revolution as a threat to the rule of the revolution, but also to avoid the war between the five countries, because it is also very likely to lead to the people's revolution.
In 1830 the Belgian plan Talleyrand partition. Most of the territory of Belgium by France, Holland and the division of the kingdom of Antwerp, the remaining land was set up in Free State,, protected by the United kingdom.
Despite the political structure of the five countries are different, the material force is not equal, but the maintenance of the monarchy and the republic political order for them to reach a consensus. Britain and Russia, at both ends of the European continent, became the overlord of the system because of their strong sea power and land power. Between the five countries through frequent diplomatic meetings to resolve disputes, the United Nations to suppress revolutionary movements, and the violent conflict in Europe outside the world, so that the European mainland to maintain a long period of relative peace.
The Aachen conference, Lebach, Congress of Troppau meeting, Congress of Verona held a formal European coordination mechanism of product. Although the European coordination mechanism to maintain Europe's "balance of power" in quite a long period of time, finally because of the common goal of power lost between countries military, political and economic confrontation and decline.
British forces in the first World War
Further decline occurred in 1848, the revolution of all countries in, as well as the unification of the German region in 1860s and the expansion of the outside world. European coordination was destroyed in the second half of the nineteenth Century war by its former players. The second Italy Crimea war, the war of independence, in 1866 1870, the Austro Prussian War and the Franco Prussian War, until the outbreak of the first World War, European coordination ended.
The new "five strong pattern"?
After the end of the war in twentieth Century did not form a new power coordination system. According to Perry Anderson's division, from Versailles to the signing of the contract in 1945 during the end of World War II, the international order in a state of anarchy a competitive powers, competing in economic and military, and eventually led to the catastrophe of World War ii. The end of World War II in 1945 1989, is the United States and the Soviet Union Erqiang hegemony in the natural, not to mention any coordination.
The history of the United States and the Soviet Union
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 to 2000, the United States has become an unmatched single overlord. By the beginning of twenty-first Century, a coordinated system of yet not crystalized emerging has begun to appear, but has not yet been stabilized. The five strong system of this period is the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and India.
By around 2000 as a baseline, it can be observed that a new major power coordination system is forming a clear sign.
The global economy is deepening.
The foundation of the new international coordination system is no longer the fear of the revolution, but the fear of economic chain control and the more distant ecological crisis. The economic fear is the high degree of interdependence of the global economic system. In recent decades the globalization, not only means that the depth of interconnection of commodity production and sales, and since 1980s the new liberalism to the capital and the currency market has formed a huge international system perplexing, the financial crisis of 2008 and its long-term effect is clear.
In today's world, every country's political legitimacy depends on maintaining economic growth, even if the growth rate according to different conditions and there are slow. Therefore, the fear of long-term economic setbacks, will countries closely together.
Cracks and hidden dangers
Apart from the close economic ties between the great powers, there are obvious cracks, the most prominent is the status of Russia's status in the international system.
After nineteenth Century the Anglo Russian Aupu four beat France, Vienna conference in France is very careful handling problems, no severe punishment in France: neither deprived of their traditional territory, nor will the exclusion system in Vienna. This is because the restored Bourbon lack of popular support and legitimacy, fear of punishment is too harsh, will cause a new field of the French Revolution, this is the European monarchies most worried about things.
Absolutely will not bow the fighting nation
Compared with this, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in western countries did not like the European powers to help France to restore the monarchy, to help restore order from inside russia. After Yeltsin came to power, eager to embrace Capitalism, enthusiasm and even more than the West's Neo liberal, but also in foreign affairs and economic affairs look forward to the United States of america.
After Putin came to power also try to adapt to the American led international order, however, the United States and its followers are the EU, publicly humiliating defeat opponents: the expansion of NATO to the Russian border, although he had promised not to do so; in Russia's backyard in the Caucasus; in Ukraine the United States government support. Russia withdrew Crimea in retaliation. The United States and the European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia, which is still suffering from its.
The relationship between Russia and the United States can not be too far apart, and can not be too close.
However, it should be noted that, even if the United States and Europe still exclude Russia, Russia still want to join the United States led the international community, financial and commercial system. Its root lies in the lack of national strength, although dissatisfaction with the current international rules, but still want to regain their own as a big country should be respected.
The United States and Europe have seen this, so there is no "give up" to Russia to put pressure on economic sanctions, regional disputes and other issues still with Russia against".
Of course, not to say the hegemony of the United states,"All of the historical visions are flawed, and all the hegemony is not perfect"When we look at the current global order, Perry Anderson suggests not only to see the aggressive powers of the United States, but also to see the logic of the United States in its vision of the future.
Countries depend increasingly on the international order, and its prospects are bright or dark.
Is the future of the world peace?
Perry Anderson proposed two different ideas from germany. One is the end of the eighteenth Century Kant's view, he believes that the general implementation of the union of the various countries of the Union will mean a permanent peace. The other is in the early twentieth Century Karl Kautsky's view, he believes that we will become the "super imperialism" (ultra-emeprialism) order of subjects.
Which views are correct, are not sure, Perry Anderson did not give their own conclusions: "nothing is certain, but we should pay attention to these possibilities."
(the data in this paper comes from the Phoenix think tank, Wikipedia, Baidu encyclopedia, etc., the paper has nothing to do with this view
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