retribution! In the fifteen-year war, thousands of officers and men died in white, and the superpowers were squeezed out of the Middle East!2018-09-27 20:25:12 144 ℃
A senior US government official told the media last weekend that if the new Iraqi government places pro-Iranian politicians in any "important position," the Trump administration will likely reduce US military support or other assistance to Iraq. This kind of warning has been interpreted by the outside world as the United States has no intimidation in the process of establishing a new ruling coalition in Baghdad.
The new government will be established after the parliamentary elections in Baghdad in May. Negotiations on the US attempt to form a ruling coalition have made little progress, and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi, who is currently supported by the United States, will almost certainly step down. US officials said: "The US will pay close attention to who is on the stage and conduct a close assessment. If those who have relations with Iran come to power, it will mean that the United States will have difficulty to continue to provide support and assistance. "But Officials did not specify what kind of assistance could be cut.
Abadi’s political alliance ranks third in the national election, and he has been with the second-ranking, pro-Iranian militia leader since then. Di Amiri competes for power and he is seeking to form his own majority alliance with former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. After losing the support of the nationalist Shi’ite cleric Sadr, Abadi’s influence was further undermined, and now the first place in the Iranian election is Sadr.
Iraqi political analysts believe that candidates who are allied with Iran are unlikely to become prime ministers. However, Sadr has been conducting a tentative reconciliation with Amiri. Once the two have reached an agreement, they may end up with a pro-Iranian-oriented candidate to serve as the most powerful cabinet in Iraq. This result will be a major blow to Trump’s main foreign policy goal of “encircling Iran”. US Secretary of State Pompeo said in New York at the UN General Assembly: "We are working hard to ensure that the Iraqi people make a voice during the election and eventually let the Iraqis lead themselves."
In Iraq, US diplomats have been working hard to marginalize Iraq’s Badr organization but have failed. The uncertain political landscape in Iraq shows that although the United States has killed thousands of people in Iraq in the past 15 years and invested hundreds of billions of dollars, the influence of the United States is weakening. Jordanian political analyst Sowell believes that the United States has no alternative plans except for the support of the fallen Abadi. If pro-Iranian politicians occupy any ministerial position, the United States threatens to provide assistance. But now the pro-Iranian Badr organization has taken control of the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior, responsible for law and order and border control.
After fifteen years after President Bush announced the beginning of the Iraq war, the United States has remained in existence. The military mainly trains and assists Iraqi security forces to prevent the re-emergence of the Islamic State. The US Special Operations Force is still in Iraq. The United States also provided economic assistance to Iraq in the form of humanitarian assistance to support the treatment of displaced persons and help reconstruction. The US believes that reducing military support may reshape regional security. Michael Knights, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute, believes that despite the fragmentation of the Islamic State, Iraqis “lack the necessary counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism capabilities”.
The potential impact of the US withdrawal of aid is unclear. Some local analysts say that this has little impact, because any funds withdrawn from the United States may be replaced by other countries. US State Department and Defense Department officials unanimously stated that they recognize and support democratic elections in Iraq. When asked if Abadi should step down, US State Department spokesman Heather Niebert said "we will not participate in the matter, this is Iraq's internal affairs." But the Trump administration has already restricted Iran’s influence in the region as the cornerstone of its foreign policy.
Earlier this month, Iraq’s pro-Iranian militia fired rockets at US diplomatic missions in Baghdad and the southern city of Basra. Analysts said the attacks were an attempt to transmit a signal that the United States was "a thin west" in Iraq, although there was no public evidence that Tehran clearly indicated the attacks. The White House responded that it "has full responsibility for any attack that causes injuries or facilities damage to US personnel in Iraq."
Analysis People said that as the formation process of the Iraqi coalition government continues to delay, whether the current state of affairs is described as "a stalemate" is divided. Political parties used the living conditions of urban residents such as Basra to incite more radical public protests. According to reports, Many Iraqis believe that corruption and powerlessness of the entire ruling class. As a nationalist, Sadr opposed all foreign interventions, but also Iranians. He won in May, partly because of the public’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s involvement in Iraq, where protesters’ groups set fire to the Iranian consulate in the past month.
The Trump administration believes that Iran has openly intervened in Iraqi elections. But experts say this view is not accurate and ignores the Iraqi public's dissatisfaction with the status quo. The United States is "everything is necessary," as long as the Iraqi government does not meet its own tastes. Some American analysts believe that the longer the Iraqi government is formed, the more likely it is to trigger a Shiite violent conflict. Sowell analysts believe that although it is difficult to predict how Iraq's future government should be formed, but the only thing that is certain is that the next government will be completely in trouble. The unlucky ones are still the Iraqi people.
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