The Chinese people are still celebrating the New Year, but the world has changed a lot these days.2019-02-09 09:17:38 29 ℃
Today, firecrackers are everywhere in the country. The Chinese people are still celebrating the New Year, but the world has changed a lot in these days. Some changes will profoundly affect the international pattern and China's national interests. At least three things! The first thing
is that the door of hell has been opened.
Trump has withdrawn again.
On February 2, China officially suspended its obligations under the Guidance Treaty and began the withdrawal procedure on December 28.
and then there is Putin's tit-for-tat: the same suspension of the implementation of the obligations of the China Guidance Treaty, no more new international negotiations on the proposed China Guidance Treaty.
A historic treaty is thus to be torn up. For many Post-70s or older people, the treaty was, to some extent, synonymous with the international news of the year.
Because in the 1980s, the most important outcome of the negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union was the China Guidance Treaty, which is called the Treaty between the Soviet Union and the United States on the Elimination of Mid-range and Short-range Missiles between the two countries. On December 8, 1987, President Reagan of the United States and Soviet leader Gorbachev signed the first truly nuclear disarmament arms control treaty in history. The signing of the Treaty
has given the world a sigh of relief. Because under the treaty, the two superpowers will completely destroy and ban short-and medium-range missiles with ranges of 500 km to 1000 km, and medium-range missiles with ranges of 1000 km to 5000 km. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the treaty. There is no doubt that this is a landmark agreement. So when the signature was completed, Reagan and Gorbachev exchanged signature pens.
But 30 years later, under Trump's rule, the treaty could really come to an end.
anticipated this move by the United States. Last year, at the annual meeting of the Valdai International Debate Club, Putin even more ruthlessly said that if Russia was attacked by missiles, the attackers would "have only one way to die, or even no time to repent". According to media reports,
Putin's original words are as follows:
We will not strike first... But aggressors should know that revenge is inevitable and they will be destroyed. As victims of aggression, as martyrs, we will rise to heaven, and aggressors can only die shamefully, because they can't even regret it.
Laughed all over.
The Russians became martyrs, others died shamefully, or they could not help breathing a cool breath.p>Both sides are showing their muscles.
On February 5, on the first day of Chinese New Year, the US military launched a "militia-3" intercontinental missile. The next day, on the second day of the Chinese New Year, Russia test-fired an "Yars RS-24" intercontinental ballistic missile. A new arms race may have begun. Obviously, Russia is not the only target of the United States.img src="/1ydzximg/0LFp4RTRtJ"/>
The second thing is that Venezuela is on the verge of civil war.
The United States is pressing, Trump declared publicly that sending troops to Venezuela is "an option".
Bolton, US National Security Adviser, was even more "outdoor machine". When he attended the press conference, reporters unexpectedly found that the front page of his yellow record book was scribbled with the words "Send 5000 soldiers to Colombia"...p>Venezuela is on the verge of war. Although Maduro still seems to be in power, Guaido, the self-proclaimed president, is gaining more and more support from Western and Latin American countries.
In fact, overthrowing Maduro has always been an option for Trump. According to American media reports, in August last year, in the Oval Office, Trump also specifically asked the Secretary of State and others: Why did the United States not invade Venezuela directly?
According to his understanding, the United States directly sent troops, three times five times divided into two, Maduro was naturally overthrown. The simplicity and straightforwardness of
made American officials look at each other for five minutes, and then they explained to Trump that military action was too dangerous and counterproductive. After all, it was aggression and the United States was risking the world.
But then and then, the situation in Venezuela has reached a new crossroads, which gives the reason for the invasion of the United States.img src="/1ydzximg/0LFp4RjOwd"/>p>Venezuela is not a small country after all. The defense minister also appears to be loyal to Maduro, who has publicly stated that the army does not accept "interim president" Guaido and will thwart all coup plots.
Maduro also refused to step down. In fact, if he chooses to give in, whether his life can be saved is a question, and the best result can only be exile.
For Trump's threat, Maduro also warned that Trump would leave the White House "stained with blood" if he sent troops.
In his words: "Stop, Trump! Close your hands! Your mistakes will stain your hands with blood and you will step down with blood. Why do you want to repeat Vietnam's mistakes?
But Trump's personality really does not exclude the possibility of a sudden military deployment to Venezuela, in order to show his strong image of arbitrary.
This will be a war belonging to Trump. Perhaps 5,000 American soldiers are really ready to go.
Therefore, Russia has also warned clearly that every party, not only the United States, but also those countries that may be involved in the implementation of such actions, should exercise restraint. The use of force could lead to catastrophic consequences.
But the war is closer to Venezuela than ever. It is time for the situation to be clear, but if civil war breaks out, Venezuelans are bound to face greater suffering.
The third thing is that the pattern of East Asia is undergoing significant and far-reaching changes. On February 5, the first day of the Chinese Lunar New Year, Trump announced: 27-28, he will meet in Vietnam with the post-80s generation of our neighbors.
According to Trump, if he hadn't been elected president, the United States and the country could not have been at war.
Now, once he is born again and twice familiar with the world, he is bound to make substantive progress at the second summit.< p> will bring about a great and far-reaching impact on the pattern of East Asia, whether it succeeds or fails.
1. If the negotiations are successful and the fuze of war is lifted, our neighbouring country will probably turn to opening up, which will undoubtedly have a far-reaching impact on the situation in Northeast China and even on the peninsula. If you fail, the opposite is true.
2. Choosing Vietnam to meet reflects the good relations between Vietnam and the two sides, but also highlights the close relationship between the United States and Vietnam. Southeast Asia and China should take this relationship into account. < p > < p > 3. The change of peninsula pattern also caused anxiety in Japan. Therefore, we can see that Abe's diplomacy has also launched an all-round attack, making good contact with Putin, trying to solve the four northern islands problem; to pay New Year's greetings to China, Sino-Japanese relations are ushering in a new starting point.
4. There is no doubt that the Peninsula issue can not be solved without the help and promotion of China. The breakthrough of the Peninsula issue will also give a subtle impression on Sino-US relations.
This is a big chess game. All the players are superior. The world is indeed facing unprecedented changes in a century, and China is also facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges.
or that sentence, no matter how the situation changes, it is the most important thing for China to do well in its own affairs. After all, the size and strength of China today is unmatched by any other country except the United States.
Of course, in terms of trend, the demise of the Guidance Treaty means that the struggle between the United States and Russia is more acute. The United States will not relax its pressure on Russia or its military struggle against China. The good play is yet to come. The trend of Venezuela and the reshaping of the East Asian pattern certainly affect China's national interests.
When talking about the influence of China and the United States, I remember that a Southeast Asian leader once said: The United States is now the most important partner of Southeast Asia, but China has been their most important neighbour for thousands of years, and for thousands of years to come. A few days ago, in an article on Abe's diplomacy, he said that the rise of China has never been seen, first of all, the integration of Chinese cultural circles. As a big country in this cultural circle, China and Japan should become friends, and preferably also friends. This is a difficult task, but a superb foreign diplomacy is to turn a strong enemy into a friend! __________ To achieve this, China's overall national interest in Japan will surpass 100 Nobel Peace Prizes.
Not only China and Japan should become friends, but also the Peninsula is a traditional friend of China. Southeast Asia is also a close neighbor of China. To calm down and deal with it calmly, opportunities will always outweigh challenges for China. < p > < p > is a blessing, not a curse, but a curse can not be avoided. The holidays will soon be over. The situation has changed a lot. Now is the time for China to face them bravely.
is still the old saying: There are no permanent enemies, no permanent friends, only permanent national interests!
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