Thirty years ago, what did the Japanese predict for the development of the Chinese navy?

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Thirty years ago, what did the Japanese predict for the development of the Chinese navy?

2019-04-25 21:30:18 360 ℃

Memoirs (2): What did Japan predict about the development of the Chinese Navy 30 years ago? From now on, the author begins to write some recall stories and recall the course of his heart as an ashes class in the past decades.

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese navy. In the past half century, the progress of the Chinese navy has been obvious to all. But we can find many impressive memories by tracing some records in history.

In May 1990, Ocean World magazine reprinted an article entitled "Current Situation and Development of the Chinese Navy", which introduced the situation of Chinese naval vessels in the eyes of the West at that time. It is particularly noteworthy that the article finally looks forward to the development of the Chinese Navy in ten years. From this we can see what the Chinese navy would look like in the eyes of the Japanese at that time.

The article concludes with the following:

By 1998, the Chinese Navy will have 233 large-scale vessels, including 7-10 DDG-II missile destroyers, 1 DDG-I missile destroyer, 15 Brigade-class destroyers, 2 Anshan-class destroyers, 15 FF-II frigates, 2 FF-1 frigates, 2 Jiangdong-class frigates and 2 river-class frigates. There are 6 Hu-V frigates, 20 Jianghu-I/II frigates, 6 Yunnan-class frigates, 1 Qingdao-class frigates, 6 Xia-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines, 20 Wuhan-class missile submarines, 6 Han-class attack nuclear submarines, 8 Han-class attack submarines, 12 D-class attack submarines, 3 Ming-class improved attack submarines, and 3 R-class attack submarines. There are 70 class attack submarines and 10 class W attack submarines. Several new Chinese main ship models are listed in

, but the names of these models are not clear, so let alone now, as a reader at that time, I can not understand. However, we can mark the course of development of Chinese warships.

DDG-I missile destroyer (predicted 1): It can be considered as 052 destroyer, namely Harbin and Qingdao. In that year, the first class 052 destroyer had been built. The power plant and weapon equipment were completely new designed. It was the first destroyer of the Chinese navy to catch up with the world's advanced level at that time. It was once called "the first ship of China". It can be seen that the Japanese prediction is closer to the facts.

Harbin destroyer

DDG-II missile destroyer (predicted 7-10): can be standard 051B destroyer, or 052B destroyer. But 051B only built one, while 052B only served in 2004. In the 1990s, the technological development of China's new generation of warships encountered many difficulties, greatly slowed down the construction of new destroyers, and even had to import Russian "modern" class as a complement to combat effectiveness.

FF-1 frigate (predicted 2): It can be used to mark 053H2G (Jiangwei class). In 1990, the first ship was launched. By 1996, four frigates were built. The ship then improved the 053H3 (Jiangwei II) to become a transitional model. Japanese predictions of the class were basically correct, but there was a gap in the numbers.

Jiangwei class frigate

FF-II frigate (forecast 15): can mark 053H3 (Jiangwei class II), the first ship launched in 1997, to build a total of 10 in 2004. The ship is also a transitional model, which can be used as a supplement to combat effectiveness in the difficult time of technical development of naval vessels in that year. The Japanese predicted the future of the ship, but there was a big gap between the numbers.

In addition, the "Yunnan" and "Qingdao" frigates mentioned by Japan were totally at a loss. The old Chinese frigates at that time were "Jiangnan" and "Chengdu".

Jiangwei class 2 frigate

In addition, it should be emphasized that the Japanese judgment on the development of Chinese submarines is very out of line, with accidental emphasis on the "Wuhan" class missile submarine. This submarine, in fact, is an experimental modification of the 033 submarine. Historically, only one submarine was built, but the Japanese judged it as "the focus of Chinese submarine development", and the error was very serious.

In addition, Japan is optimistic about the development speed of China's nuclear submarines, with a forecast of 14 attack submarines. In addition, the D-class submarines mentioned by the Japanese are not clear about the specific type. They can roughly be built on the standard 039 submarine (Song class). The submarine was built in 1992 and only one was built, but the improved type was built in large quantities and served 17 submarines before 2010. From this point of view, Japan's prediction of the "Song" class submarine has certain accuracy, but the equipment speed is too optimistic.

Old-fashioned Wuhan-class submarines, Japanese think China will build 20?

On the whole, the Japanese have some accurate predictions about the development of the Chinese navy, but they also have prejudices. In particular, the Japanese take it for granted that the development strategy of the Chinese Navy is to "win by quantity". They assume that the speed of Chinese shipbuilding is fast, and the retirement rhythm of the old model is slow. There will be a large number of W-class submarines in service in the coming 21st century. This is an obvious derogation. In addition, we can also see from the historical review that the development of China's Navy from 1990 to 2000 encountered serious bottlenecks. Although the outside world could not see it beforehand, China's military technological progress took a long time to accumulate technology on the premise of encountering the Western blockade and its own weak foundation, which is a very long period of dormancy. During this period, China has also been suffering from the reality of "backward technology". Today, 30 years later, the tremendous progress of the Chinese Navy is the result of countless technicians'willingness to be lonely, dissatisfied with backwardness and persistent pursuit of the world's advanced level. As a result, we have endured so many years of depression before we finally see the days of blossom and fruits, but this sad struggle history should not be forgotten. (Author: Tao Mujian)

Song class submarine