The opportunity in Wechat, the fight is just the beginning

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The opportunity in Wechat, the fight is just the beginning

2018-04-30 20:27:19 286 ℃

In this year's investment market, it can be said that the opportunity of the “track” is the so-called small program, but we think that the statement of the small program is too narrow, in fact, the nature of WeChat ecology.

Also, when you found out that people around you were watching this track, most of the very early investment opportunities were over. The growth fund was on the way, so should we go and find some WeChat? Inside the new class, new play?

The following is a summary based on a report I shared within Xianfeng. By reconsidering the nature behind this wave of WeChat ecological opportunities, perhaps we can draw some different conclusions and discover new opportunities.

First, why do we think WeChat has systematic opportunities? In the PC era, the browser accounted for 55% of the time, and on mobile phones, WeChat accounted for more than 55% of the time. In addition to chat, the consumption scenarios of reading and trading are also migrating to WeChat. This has caused content producers to start migrating to WeChat. Developers gradually regard WeChat as the first stop for publishing applications, and WeChat becomes an infrastructure and becomes a new one. Browser.

(Only on the order of magnitude, the market is changing rapidly, and reports cannot follow...)

The top ten companies in WeChat's valuation are the top ones. Nine of the ten households are involved in front-end new-style traffic-playing, distribution and fission. The commonality is that the front-end quickly starts to take off through these new games, and the supply side upgrades.

The reason why these opportunities appear is whether or not Wechat's traffic bonus is essential. What is the reason behind the flow of dividends?

From the PC to Mobile, the big opportunity is often brought by the new dimension of the smartphone, LBS brings drip With the opportunity of the United States and Mission, the address book brings opportunities such as WeChat, the camera brings opportunities like Mito, and voice brings opportunities like the Himalayas.

If we consider WeChat to be a standalone terminal, what new dimensions does it bring? - WeChat CommunicationRecorded dimensions have greatly improved.

In fact, the address book in our mobile phone is no longer the phone's native address book, but the WeChat address book. The richness of the relationship chain has also increased a lot - the number of contacts we had was only a few dozen. Hundreds, there are now hundreds of thousands; originally we only had acquaintanceships, and now there is also a half-acquaintance relationship; originally only peer-to-peer communications, now can communicate through groups and friends laps.

Based on the propagation of the relationship chain brings opportunities such as gambling, gathering, and fun headlines. Behind this is actually two types of traffic opportunities:

The first opportunity is cheaper There are four current ways to acquire traffic. There are four kinds of ways to play. They are a lot of fights, distributions, fission of mint reading (that is, the mode of people pulling people), bargaining of enjoying things, and maybe even more innovative ways of playing. We are also continuing to observe.

The second opportunity is a sinking channel that covers the incremental population. WeChat covers 1 billion monthly active users and has become an App Store covering different levels of users. Through WeChat communication, applications can more easily reach the sinking crowd and then use Weixin Group to develop their habits.

WeChat's relationship chain makes it a natural fit for distribution.

The first batch of micro-commuters actually came from Amoy. Amoy offgraded the proportion of shares before and after 2013, and some of Amoy's customers started to transform into micro-business. The beginning of micro-business to sell mask-based, whether it is to the user's product quality, or to the owner of the benefits of sharing, are cutting leeks.

Yunji was the first to use a regular army to do micro-business. Although it used a very wild three-level or more distribution method, it was followed by compliance. The company still insists on two adherences, insists on deep supply chain, provides good quality goods, and insists on recruiting positive values. Gathering in 2017, GMV has increased 5 times compared to 2016 to reach 10 billion RMB.

The second wave of players using the distribution model is onion overseas warehouse and there are good things, are regular secondary distribution, onion overseas warehouse cut is a cosmetics category, there is a good thing cut is a fresh category Cut categories are more vertical than clouds. Vertical e-commerce in the PC era rarely ran out, so on the WeChatIs it possible for a vertical electricity supplier?

Because of the phased flow of WeChat, it is possible to increase this possibility. In the PC era, we assumed that the user acquisition cost (CAC) is 150 yuan, but the ARPU is only 75 yuan, which makes vertical e-commerce only two possibilities, one is to expand the category, ARPU is high, and he makes himself into Jingdong. One kind of account is always too late. When VCs do not invest money, they are hanging.

On WeChat, however, the user’s acquisition cost may have only become 30 yuan, and the account is naturally calculated. This gives the time window of the WeChat vertical electricity supplier to run out.

The third wave of players may be large players, such as micro-election. Chen Qi and Jingdong of Mushroom Street jointly established a micro-election. Open the Jingdong page in WeChat, and you can see it in the second channel. At present, it is a micro merchant guide channel, but in the future it is possible to make a large-scale micro-business platform. A large number of shopkeepers are organized for distribution and the back end is selected for supply chain supply.

When the distribution model is used universally, it means that the flow bonus will also start to fade. Players who come in later may have to pay attention to it. Walking the same path does not necessarily have a bonus.

In addition to teamwork and distribution, we have also seen some new product categories emerging, such as , a second-hand trading platform based on small programs that use virtual points to buy and sell goods. Dangerous Peaks has invested in the angel wheel and said that when discussing it internally, it will also make this a very interesting project. Where is the interest?

Second-hand deals and WeChat have a good fit. The WeChat community often has a variety of second-hand items bought and sold. Sending and throwing away unwanted items has become a new way of life. Missing a good carrier.

The second-hand trading platform, such as the enjoyment and leisure fish, has an essential difference. The items in the spare fish are still positioned at more than 100 yuan, and the items on the shelf are cheaper and longer. 80% of the free fish items can't be sold within a year, and 70% of the items can be sold within three days, forming a strong enough differentiation.

You don't need renminbi for buying and selling. You only need to earn points. The use threshold is low, which means very low traffic acquisition costs. And in the long term, there will be some network effect, which is the most sensitive thing for VC.situation.

Previously on PCs and Mobile, it was often the case that traffic was first acquired and transactions made. However, on WeChat, some trading platforms have reversed the order. For example, the game itself has become a means for efficient traffic flow. For example, the game is created by a price-sensitive user's traffic pool. Is the second-hand transaction flow pool, then the platform will guide these traffic to buy high customer price products, or to other transactions.

So, what's the second-hand trading platform? Or a traffic pool with community attributes? It is difficult to distinguish.

The above are all trading platforms where we can discuss three opportunities:

First, WeChat is better able to divide people into groups. Is there an opportunity for a membership-based electricity supplier based on the crowd? There is a good thing for the first and second tier people. The crowds who gather and fight for more are going to sink, but there are still vacancies in the more submerged towns of the five lines. For example, the V Xiaoke we exchanged hopes to hit this market. .

Second, vertical e-commerce and micro-branding opportunities. Because of the decrease in user acquisition costs, the probability of vertical e-commerce in WeChat has increased a lot. Many players use the distribution model. Only high-margin products are suitable for distribution. This can give enough margin to one or two agents, such as cosmetics, mothers, babies, and households, such as long tail non-standard products; One or two percent of the purchase, three or four percent off; there are labels, Maori space is also very impressive. When the channel is established, there may be micro-brand opportunities here.

Thirdly, besides spelling out a lot of such physical goods e-commerce providers, in the end, Wechat has the opportunity to have a virtual goods e-commerce platform. The previous knowledge payment is closer to the CP. There is no Knowledge payment platform opportunities? Is there an opportunity to serve the e-commerce platform? From the different entry points, the markets of the United States and 58 cities were cut.

On the client side, we are seeing new traffic patterns brought by the enhanced address book dimension. The biggest opportunity that the face brings is the trading platform. The forerunners harvested the flow dividend, made many users, and also harvested the capital dividend, bringing in a lot of money.

This bonus has a window of time. From the aspect of user behavior, when we were pulled into the group by a WeChat e-commerce platform, we were willing to pay for it at a reasonable price. When we were pulled into the group by 20 such micro-business platforms, we were first. The reaction is to mute the group. At this time, the purchase conversion rate is bound to decrease and the traffic acquisition cost is bound to increase.

In the future, these trading platforms still have some hard power. Either do heavy supply chains, control the quality and price of goods, or even do channel brands; or do heavy front-ends to form their own unique content and community, make membership-based electricity providers, stick users, and understand users.

Whether it is the former road or the latter road, it is staged to collect wool from WeChat traffic. Users will eventually settle on a carrier and some will be deposited on their own app. Some will continue to stay on WeChat. Plenty is already conducting its own app, and it is said that half of the deals are coming from its own App.

In the end, is it really central or decentralized? Users are also concerned about the quality and price of goods, purchase efficiency and experience, how to engage in traffic in the previous period are tactics. For some players, decentralized e-commerce is a staged product that eventually becomes centralized.

After talking about the client, what new features do we see on the liquidation side?

Over the past two years, we have seen growth in the revenue of these ten-point reading and mint reading programs. Fast, with high gross profit and net profit, higher than Baidu's advertising business, Perfect World's game business, Jingdong's E-commerce business, and gross profit.

We make a conjecture that whether knowledge realisation will not be a product, but a way to realize it based on WeChat? In addition to advertising, e-commerce, games, and finance, WeChat generates the fifth realization method.

This kind of game of paid reading and buying knowledge has been tried for a long time, but no one is big. What unique soil does WeChat have to make it come to fruition?

The circle of friends is the most crucial factor. The circle of friends is a container for the management of impressions. The friends we send out are always trying. When we send keep cards, we tell people that I am a very healthy person.At the same time, the circle of friends is also the place where anxiety is most likely to occur. When many people around you are reading mint, some people will feel that the people around them are making progress and thus have an anxiety. The payment of knowledge starts quickly in WeChat and is inseparable from the catalyst of friends.

Then the public number has accumulated a large number of fans. These fans only paid attention to trusting authors. This is a natural flow of trust. When authors start to sell knowledge products, the payment becomes very expensive. natural. Of course, the formation of micro-payment habits is also a factor.

To sum up the knowledge of realizing knowledge, it is a 4*2 octagonal grid.

There are four ways for the front-end to get traffic: get traffic through personal IP, get traffic through content at ten-point reading, get traffic through tools, and read traffic through fission. There are two types of play in the backend change, either through proprietary content, gross profit above 80%, or through contracted authors' cooperation to make money, gross profit 50%.

In our opinion, what is the essence of the product of knowledge realization? It is a new type of publishing house. Where is the new? More content that suits the user's tastes, the previous books were tens of thousands of words, now turned into thousands of words, the reading threshold was reduced a lot; faster iterative cycles, a book was published a year ago, and now is released every few days content.

Can the realization of knowledge become a long-term monetization method? We are also observing. After all, learning is an anti-human thing. Can the user persist for a long time? Most of the knowledge realization is not for the purpose of the effect, but exists as a placebo. Can the user survive long after trying it out?

If the realization of knowledge is established as a basis for liquidation, these players should not only be read at ten o'clock and mint, but also later. More players will emerge. After everyone learns how to model, who better understands how to obtain users, and who has the ability to do a good job of retaining users. Players with unique traffic at the front end may become “back waves.” For example, we see that the New World has also begun to do book clubs.

At the same time, there will be different players extending to more vertical areas, such as baby playingEnglish catches parents wanting to make English enlightenment for the baby, but do not know how to teach this demand, Chic original drunk is to seize the girl want to find Gao Fushuai this just need. (smiling face)

The existing knowledge realization projects are mostly like CP. Is there a platform for this opportunity?

We talked about changes in front-end traffic and changes in back-end cash. The opportunity for the earliest wave of WeChat was brought by the public number, and the public number brought a new batch of content, replacing the old media.

Starting from 2017, WeChat started to push small programs. In fact, the earliest benefit from the small program is the public number, the public number + small program electricity supplier has become a very good form of realization, many of the public number achieved a wave of cash after the realization of the small program; after the small program is the tool , community and game opportunities. Tooling is often faster, but in the tool-to-community, or tool-to-electricity business, it seems that we haven't seen players who have run out of them.

Are there any other big opportunities besides these? Can WeChat reshape some of the vertical industry scenes? Examples include education, finance, and corporate services.

For education, for example, there will be such a map, horizontal is the most likely category of several projects, More than 80% of the major projects are in the K12 and English categories, and verticals are opportunities brought about by changes in different technologies and business models.

The chain model brings opportunities for New Oriental and a good future; live broadcasting brings opportunities for VIPKid, coaching and one-on-one; O2O also brings a wave of opportunities, but most of the unit economic model runs Unreasonable, there are also problems with user needs, and later they all transition or exit the battlefield; AI brings a wave of opportunities for fluency and jobboxes; on WeChat, are there any educational scenarios that can be remodeled? For example, Park nailed the scene using WeChat to remodel the home school.

The applet attracts too much attention. In fact, the applet and the opportunity in WeChat cannot be equated. The applet is just a carrier. It is meaningless to discuss the applet itself. It should be discussed. What is the need for WeChat? What kind of scene? What combination of applet+public number+group+friend circle can have?Law, come and react with this scene?

In addition to the WeChat e-commerce and WeChat content that we have already seen, apart from the small games that everyone is investing in, will there be some opportunities in Sham Shui Po? Apart from physical e-commerce, is there a possibility for virtual goods e-commerce and life services e-commerce platforms? What are the opportunities for education and financial segmentation in WeChat? What opportunities will be created after the opening of corporate WeChat and personal WeChat? And, besides the WeChat's wool, how can we shake the sound and how can we pick wool?

I believe that these problems will have more impact on the market in the next six months to one year than the chances of the e-commerce companies that have entered the mature stage.

Author: Wu Bingjian, vice president of Evergrande Evergreen Investment, focuses on investment opportunities in the 2C trading platform, WeChat ecology, and education. It is an early investor in projects such as Job Box, Yunding Technology, Whole House Premium and Blue Finance. He previously served as a director of investment in Lenovo Star, and previously worked as a product manager in Baidu and a business analyst in Baidu Strategy.

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