Listed March performance big change face, "maternal and baby Sam Store" is subject to chasting, exposure quality problem

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Listed March performance big change face, "maternal and baby Sam Store" is subject to chasting, exposure quality problem

2022-01-21 18:05:44 72 ℃

Wen | "Financial World" Weekly Chen Chang

Edit | Sun Yue

On January 19, the king (301078.sz) released 2021 year performance forecast, which is expected to return to the net profit from 196 million yuan to $ 1.235 billion in 2021, a year-on-year decline in 40% to 50%. The decline in net profit is more severe, and it is expected to be $ 109 million to 1.14 billion yuan, down 55% -65% year-on-year.

The performance figures and 392 million yuan net profit predicted by Zhongjin Company, 433 million yuan in net profit forecast for 433 million yuan, have been significantly lower than that.

Source: Company Announcement

As for the reasons why the performance decline, the company said that more than 70 new open stores in 2021, mainly new door stores in the second half of 2021; the new shopping store has increased the company's operating costs, and enhance the number of members, income and profitability Need a certain operating time, plus the inventory of the inventory of the inventory of the property in 2021, which affects the total net profit level in 2021.

Affected by this, January 20th, the child's opening has reached 5%.

The child Wang Jueden on October 14, 2021, just landed in the GEM, the first day of listing benefits from the three-child concept, the distribution price of the share price is 303.8% to 23.30 yuan.

But the 20th, the stock price fell is that the company is already a normally. Its stock price highlights have maintained on the first day, and then several trading days continue to fall, the stock price is at least 1.5.03 yuan.

As of 20, the child's share price reported 20.07 yuan, the market value was 22.652 billion, and the market value was 2.7 billion.

Why did the child are in the case of capital? Some investors believe that this is unhappy with the "big shop" model with the king's line.

Opal and changing the situation, the performance is colorful or not?

Since the establishment of the child Wang, Nanjing has opened a direct storage shop for the headquarters and gradually radiating outward. At the end of 2020, the national store has reached 434, and it plans to add 300 stores in the next three years.

According to this announcement, the child Wang is used in more than half a year. This figure is far exceeded in 2018, the number of stores opened in 2018, and 94 in 2019 were similar in 82 in 2020, and the company was quite expanded.

The problem is that the entity store is impacted by the epidemic. It is very serious for nearly two years. The king of the king is full of expansion offline shops, which is easy to be affected by the changes in business changes and housing costs, lack of risk resistance.

Compared to other maternal and child shop, the child's store is especially "big". The store is opened in a commercial complex of 100,000 square meters and above, and Nanjing Jianwanda's first store has an area of ​​8,000 square meters. The work was circulated, and the king of the child once caused Wang Jianlin questioning, and the average area of ​​the king of the king also reached 3,000 square meters.

Because the store is large, with the increase in the number of stores, 2018-12020, the child Wangmen store has risen year by year, with 482 million yuan, 546 million yuan and 592 million yuan, the expenditure has become the biggest child. the costing payment.

Contrary to the high-profile situation of the siege, the company's pacific income is walking down the downhill, 2018 is 7855.05 yuan / m2, 2020 drops to 6878.73 yuan / m2.

At the same time, the children's revenue and net profit are not optimistic. During 2018 to 2020, its revenue was 6.671 billion yuan, 8.243 billion yuan and 8.355 billion yuan, revenue growth rate of 27.4%, 23.6% and 1.4%; return to the net profit of 2.76 billion yuan, 377 million yuan 3.91 billion yuan, the growth rate is 194.2%, 36.8%, 3.6%.

In addition, since January 1, 2021, the mother and child retail enterprise store applies new lease guidelines. According to the guidelines, financial needs to be newly confirmed to use rights assets and lease liabilities, which leads to the company's asset-liability rate up to 68.37% in the third quarter of 2021. .

The opening of the store is only one aspect. From the sales channel, the over-input of the line has also deviated from the development trend of the transfer of maternal and child consumption.

According to the data of Ai Rui consultation, in the investigation of my mother group age distribution in 2020, the number of mother groups under 30 years old (90/95) accounted for more than 60%, which is the main force of the new mother group.

Before the consumption concept of the group, the relevant information is mainly obtained through the driving channels such as mother and baby app, shopping app, maternal and child public account, plus the driving of domestic maternal and child e-commerce, online channels, etc. The mainstream market for infant products.

The online layout of the king king is mainly divided into mobile app, WeChat public account, applet, micro-commerce city. As of 2020, its online sales is 750 million yuan, accounting for less than 10%.

It is worth mentioning that even if you do our best to bet, there is no great competitive advantage in the online base camp. At the end of 2020, Wang Shouthou is 434, and there are several maternal and child chain companies in China. There are also love rooms, music friends, love island, Lijia Baby, including Le Friends, and Baby Baby Store King king.

Children's main competitors, map source: Haitong Securities Research Institute

Maternal and child products pay particular attention to product safety. "Finance World" Weekly also observed that the child Wang frequentered was pointed out that the sales failed product, and recently, Shandong announced 17 batches of unqualified crawled mats in January this year. Earlier, the company also exposed, the child and its molecular company were more than 50 of the administrative punishment of more than 50 fines, and there were dozens of punishment for sales unqualified goods. Mother and baby industry, thunder heavy rain

Studying the king's "big store" model, it is not difficult to find that the company's management has a deeper idea.

It is reported that the company currently takes the business model of "goods + service + social", that is, in line in the store as a drainage entrance, the user is guided to become a member, forming a private traffic pool, and then provides a special parenting consultant Subsequent parenting knowledge, monthly meal match, nutrition guidance and other full range of parenting services, thereby increasing customers, increase customer viscosity and activity.

The use of the ultra-door store is more for the babies to provide bath, haircut, swimming and other services, and the line activities. That is to say, the company wants to break the mother and child supplies sales single bottleneck, so that every coming customer can have a long time The company contributes income.

The company also confirmed this in the foreigners, which will rely on the platform advantage, and it will be positioned in the future of new families, including talents, sports, photography, etc., to build a multicultural industry. Blended parental and growth ecotry circles.

Although the blueprint is magnificent, the sales of maternal and child goods are still the main source of children, and the proportion of the first half of 2017-2020 is 94.58%, 92.23%, 89.91%, 90.56%, of which there is no milk powder. Recovery occupies 60%.

In the industry, the child's membership model can be understood as "Sam Store in Maternal and Baby". In 2018, the child king officially launched a paid member - black gold Plus members, consumers enjoy differentiated rights and value-added services by purchasing pregnant cards (399 yuan / year) or growth card (199 yuan / year). As for the value-added services, the king did not give a clear definition in the present invention.

Source: King's official website

From parental and employee feedback, the performance indicator of the child is not low, "I have to have a member card, like a hairdresser, and the members will continue to receive call requirements. Renewal. "A parent told the" Financial World "Weekly.

In addition, there are also employees to Tucao in social media. "In the child Wang work, it is not to watch the management layer, the members who can't finish, the unfinished app, there is still a bunch of invitation every month. Telephone is called guest. "

As of the end of June 2020, the number of children of the child is more than 700,000, and the total number of members in the same period is 37 million, and the pay member is less than 1.8%.

It is foreseeable that the company wants to rely on the sale of members to reach the day of performance.

In contrast, the quality of the product is guaranteed in the short term, and the sales ability of the inducing existing brand is the top priority, which is also the foundation of the child in the maternal and child industry.