The 10-year US debt yield will have a high in the past year?2021-11-25 14:42:16 10 ℃
Fin Federation (Beijing, Reporter Zhang Xiaoyu), recently, the yield of the US debt continues to rise, and the 10-year-old US debt yield in Tuesday is 1.68%, and the high level is 1.776% in the year. Market people pointed out that the short term of 10 years of US debt yields still have a certain difficulty in the New High in the Wheed National New Year, but it is expected that the 10-year US debt yield still has an upside space.
10-year US debt yield still has upside
Joe Perry, Senior Analyst of Jiasheng Group, believes that as economic growth improvements and inflation expectations slow down, the US actual rate of return will increase. As the market expects the Fed will further raise interest rates later, the US 2 Years and 5 years of return rate curves will be steep, and the 10-year US debt yield will reach 1.8% at the end of this year, and at the end of next year or rose to 2.1%. nearby.
The Ping An Safety Team also believes that the trend of the 10-year US debt will still depend on the US inflation expectation, the economic fundamental, the Federal Reserve Money Policy orientation, and how the US debt upper limit will solve the factors.
The team expects the high point of this round of 10-year US debt yields to return to 1.8% -2.0%. If inflation is expected to be tightened with high-deficit Feds, it is possible to break through 2% of 2%. However, the global economic recovery is not strong after the epidemic, and the 10-year US debt yield has long been less than 2% probability of less than 2%.
In addition, Beijing a state-owned US debut trader has said to Fin Federation, the short-term 10-year US debt yield is over from the high level of 1.776% in the year, still facing large resistance, technical pressure overlapping Thanksgiving holiday will make the US debt market lack power.
The Fed attitude is still crucial
Market people have said that this round of US debts and other overseas economies bond yields have a large extension. The main reason is that Powell is nominated, and the Federal Reserve is expected to promote the market. The Fed will accelerate reduction debt and early first time. Raising interest rate hike.
They explained that the previous US consumer price index (CPI) has increased the highest level for decades, and inflation expectations also rose the highest since 2013. If the Powell, which is more embassy, the Powell, which will strengthen the Federal Reserve will be more firm. Execute the TAPER path, or even the market expectations of raising interest in advance.
Wang Qing, the Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said to the Fin Federation, nearly several trading days, the yield of the US debt, may be affected by Powell's possibility of obtaining a nomination, Powell has taken the Fed, in 2018, Interest, give a significant impact on the capital market. If the US economy continues to repair in 2022, the employment market is stable, while inflation maintains a high level, Powell may speed up the pace of tightening of monetary policy.
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