The public examination is approaching, the educational stock is in advance, and the vaporization of 200 billion vocational education begins to reverse?

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The public examination is approaching, the educational stock is in advance, and the vaporization of 200 billion vocational education begins to reverse?

2021-11-26 00:17:57 5 ℃

Author: Sai Wen Editor: Small city girl

The 2021 public examination is now coming, and the educational sector begins to force in advance.

Today (November 25th) educational sector continues to strengthen. As closebook, the development of the education, the public education, Kaiyuan Education, Code education, and still continuously.

In 2021, the educational stocks suffered "group", no exception.

After the introduction of the "double mining" policy of K12 education, the multi-meano effect that caused many online education companies, but also even the entire teaching industry, they are in a downturn.

Domestic vocational education faucet, a hundred billion-owned municipal education, from the beginning of this year, the stock price has more than 70%, and the market value has more than 200 billion yuan.

We need to discuss Yes :

1. Is there a fundamental logic of vocational education?

2. Whether the fundamental of Zhonggong Education is stable

On the evening of October 12, China, China issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High Quality Development of Modern Vocational Education", aims to implement the spirit of the National Vocational Education Conference, promote the high quality development of modern vocational education, and put forward two main goals .

From 2025, the enrollment scale of professional undergraduate education is not less than 10% of higher vocational education enrollment scale; in 2035, the overall level of vocational education enters the world's forefront, and the skill-based society is basically completed.

Overview of the Chinese vocational education track, it may be "Pearl Pearl" in the future for a long time. The labor market is competitive, the user's base, the participation rate and the willingness will rise at high speed.

According to the statistics of Ai Rui consultation, 2018 China's labor has exceeded 800 million. In 2019, the size of the domestic vocational education market is 26.885 billion, an increase of 13.3% year-on-year, and it is expected to continue to maintain more than 13% of growth in 2020-2022.

From the perspective of financial report, 2018 - 2020, the revenue growth rate of Middle Mongolong education is as high as 34%, from 6.237 billion to 1.29.5%, from 1113 billion to 18.67 100 million.

Specifically to Zhonggong Education, this company has gradually grown into a leader in the industry, is being ready to go.

The first is that Zhonggong Education has issued an announcement saying that "the company has not carried out the disciplinary school training business in the K12 stage, and there is no significant impact on the company's main business"

Current Chinese educational education has formed "three-level rocket" models of "public examination" + "institutions, teachers" + "postgraduate and other professional training".

The first level is the public examination, this is China's traditional advantage project, accounting for nearly 50% of the company's income, more than 30% of the city, leading the second place near ten percentage points, but also continues to grow.

According to the national letter securities, the 20025 public examination market is 28 billion yuan, which is about 2 times the current scale. Zhonggong Education is expected to use the leader to seize more market share.

The second level is a long time to recruit exams. For a long time, this part of the business is low, and the willingness to receive systematic training is low, and the test time is relatively dispersed, the market development is relatively difficult. . However, from the scale of the company and the overlap of the candidate, the company has achieved growth.

2018 - 2020, the two major sectors income account for 32% of the overall income, and the market share is in the industry. In addition, it is also a higher growth expectation relative to the public examination. According to the Guoxing Securities, by 2025, the scale of the business unit examination market is about 6 billion yuan, about 3 times the current, the teacher's examination market is approximately 32.4 billion. Yuan, about 3.2 times now.

The third level is a comprehensive sector such as postgraduate and IT skills training. This is a new business that has been striving for the focus of mid-education education in recent years.

From the data sheet, the income of the integrated sector in the past three fiscal agents has been around 16%; in the first half of this year, the revenue of the sector reached 28% in the increase of investment, meaning the comprehensive skills training market Potential can be dug.

According to the relevant estimates of the relevant nationals, the scale of the postgraduate research market in 2025 will reach 25 billion yuan, and the share of Zhonggong Education is close to 20%.

If you want to say that the biggest risk of Zhonggong Education, it must be the transformation of other teaching facilities to eaten this seductive cake.

These K12 institutions are not new people who have just met, they know how to pick up waves. After all, one of the bokery of the capital will be loud than one, and the recruitment business should be their strength.

Disclaimer

This paper relates to the content of the listed company, based on the personal analysis and judgment of information (including but not limited to interim announcements, regular reports, and official interactive platforms) based on its legal obligation, information or opinion in the text The market value observation is not responsible for any action due to adoption of this paper.

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