Property market, a bad news!

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Property market, a bad news!

2021-11-27 18:02:07 40 ℃

Author: non-fish


Sima Yi during the Three Kingdoms, the reason why Cao Wei's victory fruit, set the foundation for its establishment of the West Jin and unified the three countries, in addition to its kindness, doing things, there is a very critical point, live longer.

He died Cao Cao, dying Cao Yu, dying Cao Rui, and died of his opponent Zhuge Liang, there is no opponent. The last Cao Shuang, and he is not in a level, and finally he passed Gaoping, firmly mastered the power.

From this point, a person must achieve the name of the name, in addition to being able to live, it is a very critical factor, otherwise, only the sky is not fake. Think about it, Cao Cao, Cao Yu, Cao Rui and the opponent Zhuge Liang, Sima Yi only did not expect any one of them, he could not complete the rights of stealing, history will be rewritten.

So, live, live long, very important.

This is especially important for the current housing companies. I have to admire Vanke, as early as the autumn in 2018, Vanke will shout "live". At that time, although in the regulation cycle, the market did not cool, most housing companies still believe in their judgments, still do not change the radical model.

When I reached my head, the sound of "live" became a time and space, and I sent it. I have to admire the foresight of Vanke, perhaps the intake of not winning the cold.

Those who rely on the radical pattern beyond its housing enterprises, now there is no one to live well. Evergrande debt is entangled, and Xu Jiajin self-defeating is defeated. Country Garden is now spelling a housing, reflowing in cash. Sun Hongbin also sailed in the pocket, and the sound borrowings were blended, and they were very difficult.

The large number of houses behind it, is also committed to the money, tired of debts. The early department prepared, in the industry turning, also affected, but relatively, it is still good.

Therefore, although the sales scale has already been constant, Country Garden is surpassing, but in the industry, it is still considered a benchmark. Its moves, still being attacked.


Yesterday (November 26th), Vanke held a temporary shareholders meeting in Dameoshake's headquarters, and he was stunned, and there was a stunning saying.

Overall, I saw yesterday's meeting, the hue was gray, full of pressure, depression and negative, but not confused.

First of all, Yu Liang said apologizes that for this year, Vanke stock price fell, he said that although there is a macro factor in the industry, he also has a bad factor, so he feels particularly embarrassed.

The public data shows that as of yesterday, Vanke A was reported to 18.99 yuan / share, which fell 41.12% compared to the high of 32.25 yuan / share in March this year.

He also revealed that it is affected by the decline in stock prices, this year Vanke employee's bonus will also be affected.

Objectively, Vanke stock price fell, mainly affected by macroeconomic factors. This year, real estate stocks have fallen, and the sales performance of all housing companies decline, profit loss, more even debt crisis, stock price is not the most miserable.

Of course, this is not the key points you want to emphasize, focus on.

At the meeting yesterday, Vanke predicted for the future real estate market:

The market situation has not yet been clear.

Moreover, Vanke also clearly stated that it will be lowered next year's business objectives.

Not only that, ten days ago, Vanke's internal issuance of "Washing Wear Sweeping" and Creating the War of Watching ", proposing the inertial thinking of the golden era, and will run through the business philosophy Does not produce the actions and expenses of subtraction, spend small money, etc.

Relaxing in credit, in November, the size of the housing commissioning is ushered in a sharp rise in rising, and Vanke is high-profile announces that wearing usage and saving, the situation is not clear, and it is necessary to cut next year's business goals.

Obviously, Vanke is still not optimistic about the real estate market next year. And from the perspective of the operation of the business target, Vanke may believe that next year's market will not be better than this year.

This argument can be regarded as a bad news in the property market.

What is this this year?

Data show that in 121 listed real estate companies in A, business income in the first three quarters declined by 40, and the net profit of the home company decreased by 52, accounting for more than 40%; 31 rooms lost money.

Vanke, from the three-quarter earnings report from Vanke, the operating income is slightly greater than last year, but the profit of the same period is negative.

Source: Vanke Third Quarter Finance

Vanke feels that next year's market may be worse than this year, this is a rhythm or rational judgment?

This is not good, but it is possible to see a reminder of the market for the market from the "live" present in 2018.


This number is not available for Vanke's judgment. Because of next year, the variable is still very large, and it is still not good, and it is judged.

I have three questions:

First, macro aspects, credit is relaxed, seem to be good for housing companies.

On the one hand, the central bank has deleted the "tube currency gate" that has always been emphasized in the previous three-quarter financial report, and expressed its stability of the total amount of credit growth.

In this regard, the financing environment of the housing and enterprises next year will be much better than this year.

From the perspective of specific actions, since the end of October, from the central to the place, talk about the housing enterprises many times to understand their business status. At the time, the number was analyzed, and the financing will be properly relaxed and supported by housing enterprises. Dark data is displayed, as of November 23, 2021, the total financing of real estate enterprises in November is 61.75 billion yuan, which is 69.2% over the total month of October.

Second, but on the other hand, the basic selection of strategic contractions in the room company, seems to be still not optimistic about the prospect.

In Vanke, recently, Shenzhen has conducted a third round of centralized land, a total of 11 pieces, but as a house in Shenzhen, Vanke still chooses to run, one place has not taken it (Shenzhen second round, Vanke There is no place).

In addition, state-owned enterprises took 9 pieces, accounting for 81.82%. The 21st places sold at the second round, 17 were taken by the industrial enterprises, accounting for 80.95%. It can be seen that the industrial enterprise is still in the country, and the private enterprises are still lying, and they will continue the strategic contraction.

In recent days, Nanjing, Suzhou, which is also the same, is also the bottom of the industrial enterprise and local city.

Third, the insurance-increasing national team is abandoning the real estate and looks at the market.

In the article written by Shangben, he mentioned this, the insurance-increasing national team is abandoning the real estate.

According to the public report, the insurance companies such as China Shou, Taikang Life, Junkang Life, Junkang Life, and Harmonious Health have differently reduced the households, and in the household enterprise, there is no shortage of Vanke A, Poly Development and other head housing enterprises.

For example, China Life has been in the second half of last year, has been overlying Vanke, Vanke disclosure, the 2020 third-quarter financial report, China Life Shares decreased to 0.93%. The latest disclosed three-quarter earnings report show that the Chinese Life Shares has dropped to 0.61%.

Another national-funded state-owned insurance enterprise in the rooted seedlings (the major shareholder is China Life), which continues to reduce the golden land this year.

According to the public information, from September 3 to November 11th, 2021, everyone's life passed the collection of bidding and bulk transactions, and several times have repeatedly reducing the Shares of the Golden Group, and their shareholding ratios decreased to 15.43%.

Shang Zhou Jinli Group issued an announcement that everyone's life has reduced 4,719,6200 shares, and the proportion of shares holding golden land dropped to 14.38%.

Therefore, it is still difficult to see the market situation next year. As Vanke said, it is not clear. Vanke lowered next year's business goals, it is a conservative strategy that can better deal with variables.