Highly monopoly high pressure, where is the future?2021-11-30 00:02:39 68 ℃
Babble under the author / starry sky
Edit / Spinach Star
Typography / small fish under the stars
Coal is walking from the air, and the electricity is electricity.
If you ask, in the power industry, what technology can have in China, the first international opponent, the first word in the brain is the special high voltage, which is called the electric science technology, the highway, known as the electricity. That is, the pig's feet of today's article.
Once, when the experts of the State Grid were inspected in a beautiful national special high voltage test base, they were required to take pictures and records, and do not want to obtain any valuable data. In this technique that is completely blocked, the State Grid can only be a war.
However, it is the most difficult, meaning. After years of autonomous exploration, we have finally mastered the full set of technology of special high pressure, standing in the top of the technology. These two years from the country to enterprises, often mention the words of the card neck. But in the field of special high pressure, we finally caught the neck of the country.
So, let's take a look at the market of special high pressure and talk about it. Is there any opportunity for investors in the future?
I. Special high pressure, why did you enter an expert's mental eye?
Simply scientifically high pressure. Extreme high pressure generally refers to transmission technology of voltage grade in exchange of 1000 kV, or DC 800 kV above. Why my country has to develop special high pressure in a technology blockade, such a harsh environment? Give you four digits, you will understand:
1. The transmission distance of the ordinary grid is only 500 kilometers;
2. 76% of coal resources in north and northwest;
3. 80% of water energy resources in the southwest;
4. More than 70% of energy demand in the Middle East.
Picture: Specialties for special high voltage transmission
You will understand this, with electricity and power generation, and the ordinary high-voltage electricity (usually 220 kV) is also transferred so far. This seems that it is a road to a special pressure?
And slow, when the special high pressure is now building, it is not all experts to cry. Some conservative experts put forward that with a large number of people who spend a lot of people, it is better to expand the railway network, directly put the western wealthy coal to the eastern part of the lack of electricity, and then build electricity on site. This technical difficulty and cost is low.
The special high-voltage supporters who have a longer vision, the reasons taken out are no more confuting, and the air can be used to use coal railway, the future? On the day of the new energy, the photovoltaic power generation, can you move the sun from the west to eastern? It can be said that later Xinjiang's abandonment rate fell from 30% to 5%, in addition to the impact of the policy, the special pressure does not.
So, in front of the bread and future poems in front of the afar, the temple finally chose the latter. Just said, the development of high pressure is completely relied. After five years, in 2009, my country built the world's first 1000 kV high-voltage transmission and electrical transformation project, which greatly improved the efficiency of transmission (heat loss and voltage of the voltage), and the high pressure became the most cattle player. Technical business card.
Picture: Special High Pressure Cumulative Direction
At the end of 2020, my country has built 14 parallel 16 vertical, 30, in the motorway high voltage line. In addition, high-pressure is also starting technology output to build a power system in foreign brothers (such as Brazil, Greece).
Picture: National Grid is a schematic of high pressure project in Junutong
Will tell you this history, I want to tell you, the external environment + important decision + technology innovation is a company, and it is also an industrial development.
Second. In the industrial chain of high pressure, who is eating cake
It has benefited from the rapid development of high pressure, and the high-voltage index has increased nearly 40% since this year. Special change electrician, Quartet Shares, Siyuan Electric, etc. Special high-voltage concept stocks have established a new high in early September.
Then let's go an industrial chain and go deep into the players of the next high pressure.
Picture: Special High Voltage Industry Chain
Look at upstream, upstream is mainly divided into metal raw materials, sensors, electronic components, etc. The cost of metal is the highest (about 16%), mainly metal, steel, aluminum and other metals, and increase the performance of the middle-resembled enterprises in the market, the market of the big commodities this year, to a certain extent. But overall, the upstream players are numerous, so the bargaining ability is not very strong relative to the middle.
Look at the middle, involving the manufacture of China's special high voltage electrical appliances, including combined electrical switches, transformers, etc. (Because there are too many technical terms here, it will be introduced). The middle is relatively high concentrated. Take the parts of the parts exchange valve as an example, the market share of Guodian Nanyi is close to half, CR3 exceeds 95% (second and third, respectively, Xu Ji Electric 000400, China West Electric 601179). In addition, the CR3 of the AC transformer reaches 95%, and the combined electrical switch CR3 reaches 95%, and the problem can be explained.
Image Source: Power Planning and Design
From the gross profit margin, the author found the relevant data of the national grid, the transformer, the net profit rate of the reactor is 10%, and the net profit of the combination electrical switch is 20%. According to this, it can be measured that a single-high voltage exchange line can contribute to the three-class components, respectively, with a net profit of 290 million yuan, 290 million yuan, 260 million yuan.
So in the middle, you can always believe in these faucets, every sub-market is basically oligual, so you can only see the construction plan of the future high pressure can be judged.
Ok, then let's take a look at the most important downstream. The downstream is the grid industry, with natural monopoly attributes (belonging to public utilities), players, you are sure to understand, national grid, southern grid, yyds. Throughout the entire industrial chain, 90% of the high-voltage electrical appliance enterprises are used for the construction of downstream grids. It is closely related to the future of high pressure. Therefore, from the perspective of investment, the author is more willing to put their attention in the key equipment enterprises in the middle. Third. Tomorrow, really good?
How is the high-pressure tomorrow? After all, there must be a certain public service attribute, you can say that it is not necessary, the best answer needs to be found from the 14th Five-Year Plan.
The author gave a special high-voltage construction plan, as a new energy development and a big weapon in Western Electricity, during the 14th Five-Year Plan, 17 provinces were prepared to build special high-pressure delivery / input project, and there were specific construction projects, this The fire will further promote the clean electricity, the country will invest more than 6 trillion yuan in the grid and related industries.
Picture: Each provincial special high voltage construction plan (excerpt)
Moreover, recent national grids also broke out, and the national power grid plans to invest 2 trillion in the next five years, and promote the transformation of the grid. Up to now, the State Grid also discloses that 27 high-voltage transmission projects have been completed, cross-provincial cross-regional transmission capacity reached 23 million kilowatts, and 2030 will be increased to 350 million kilowatts. Dad, the Dad, has already spoken, and you can imagine the state's determination to develop special high pressure.
Image: 2021-2025 special high voltage annual investment scale forecast
Extreme high pressure, as a steel forest in the new era, if you miss this car, you may miss an era. This is not only related to stock investment, more related to the entire energy construction, and is related to all of our lives.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky and cautious in entering the market. There is no harm without buying and selling.
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