Hydrogen energy is a wind, but now the speculation is a bubble

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Hydrogen energy is a wind, but now the speculation is a bubble

2021-12-01 00:04:15 16 ℃

This year's A shares belongs to "new energy", the hydrogen energy is too hot, today (November 30), the same flowers and hydrogen energy index rose new high, specific to stocks, in the past one month, US gold energy exceeds 20%, Deep-cold shares have increased by more than 30%, and Zhongtai Shares is close to 70% ...

Whether it is used as a fuel cell or is used for energy storage, hydrogen energy is high, mainly based on its three advantages.

First, the hydrogen heat value is the highest in the common fuel, up to 142 kJ / g, this level is approximately three times the oil, 4.5 times the coal. This means that the energy of the same quality is consumed, and the energy provided by hydrogen is the largest, and the general trend of the car is lightly reduced;

Second, the product of hydrogen combustion is water, completely non-polluting, can truly achieve zero-carbon emissions in theory in theory;

Finally, the reserves are rich, the hydrogen element is the element of the most in the universe, and there is a large amount of hydrogen energy available to development in water resources.

The energy storage is a new imagination space, wind power, photovoltaic, etc. The volatility can also reduce energy waste, and it is the need and standard of the wind, the light.

According to energy storage, current storage can be divided into electrical energy, heat storage and hydrogen storage, where hydrogen storage is theoretically very promising.

Hydrogen is an excellent energy storage medium, which can be stored in the high pressure tank in a high pressure in the high pressure in the form of gas and liquid state, and can also be stored in the hydrogen storage material. In addition, the energy density of the hydrogen storage energy is less capable of storing energy reserve technologies over 100 GWH, and can be applied at the same time for extremely or long-term power supply.

On July 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guidance of Accelerating New Instructions", and it is clear that my country's new energy storage installed model has exceeded 30GW, in the next five years, my country's new storage capacity There are eight times grew space.

From the theory, the outbreak of hydrogen energy seems to be in front of you, but the reality is not the case.

The cost is a core barrier that restricts a technological popularity.

Hydrogen energy industry chain can be roughly divided into hydrogen production, storage, hydrogen storage stations, hydrogen fuel batteries, etc. At present, the main hydrogen production techniques include industrial exhaust gas byprove, electrolytic water hydrogen, chemical raw materials, fossil fuel hydrogen waves, etc. Pollution, but low efficiency. According to the degree of cleaning of hydrogen, the obtained hydrogen can be divided into grasha hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and hydrogen hydrogen. Theoretically, the hydrogen hydrogen is the real clean energy in the future, but the cost is much higher, the cost of the hydrogen production is about 4 US dollars. / KGH2, and the production cost of gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen is around 1.5-2 US dollars / kgH2.

Since most of China's hydrogen stop does not have the ability to hydrogen hydrogen in the station, there are many costs of transportation links, while transportation costs of industrial hydrogen trucks that transport hydrogen are relatively high, according to data according to Northeast Securities, currently different The form of hydrogen transportation is approximately 2 US dollars / kg. The fixed construction cost of the hydrogen station is also very high. According to GGII incomplete statistics, as of the end last year, the national construction and construction of Hhydrate Station, which has been built, which has been built, most of which is 500kg / d. (12h) hydrogenation station.

It is to know that the construction cost of 35MPA fixed hydrogenation station in China is about 12 million yuan, and the construction cost of large hydrogenation stations can even reach 40 million yuan. The cost of each link has caused the use price of hydrogen to use the price, and in the contrast between the other energy in a more disadvantage.

In 2020, the hydrogen price of the hydrogen station is about 10 US dollars / kgH2 (about 67 yuan / kGH2). The 100-kilometer cost of the hydrogen power vehicle is about 65 yuan, compared with the 100-kilometer cost of electric vehicles. 10 yuan. The 100-kilometer cost of the gasoline car is 33 yuan. Insufficient economic weakness, the lack of hydrogenation station, the sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are difficult to release, 2020, the sales volume of global hydrogen fuel cell vehicles only 9006, down 9.1% year-on-year, 937 USA, 308 Germany, China 1177 Taiwan, 5,823 servants in Korea, 761 Japan. This data is N orders of magnitude compared to the sales of 3.240,000 new energy electric vehicles last year.

The fastest growing field of hydrogen fuel cell is heavy card. According to the prediction of ENG, in 2030, the fuel cell heavy truck in the case of government subsidies (about 600,000 yuan) economy can roughly comparable to diesel heavy card; to 2050, fuel Battery is expected to be better than diesel heavy card.

CCTV "Dialogue" launched special programs - "Carbon neutralization countdown: Hydrogen energy", Li Zhenzhuo, president of Zhang Yuze and Lower, president, as a special guest, for China's hydrogen energy, is a magnificent blueprint. .

The future is bright, but the road must also be twisted, compared to industries such as photovoltaic, wind power, and lithium batteries, China's technical reserves in the field of hydrogen energy are significantly behind. In the hydrogen production, electricity price and electrolysis equipment lead to important reasons why the current green hydrogen production cost is high Bureau The cost of the two reaches 50% and 40% respectively, and the PEM electrolytic cell is The core of the electrolysis equipment is nearly 50% of the total cost of the hydrogen production system. As of now, the core technology and large-scale manufacturers of PEM electrolytic cells are foreign leading companies, including NEL (Germany), ITM Power (UK) and Cummins (US), Siemens (Germany). For example, a hydrogen storage bottle, currently in the domestic hydrogen fuel cell automotive sector is mostly 35MPa's aluminum-linen fiber full wound storage bottle, which has a high-end carbon fiber outside the package, and the material is mainly dependent from Japan and South Korea imported. Japan Dongli, Japan, Dongbang, South Korea SK, Japan and South Korea enterprises accounted for more than 70% of China's imported hydrogen storage bottle, last year, Dongli, my country, implemented carbon fiber, but also triggered the price of carbon fiber, but also directly disturbed Production of hydrogen storage bottles. Electric stacks and their parts and materials are the core of the entire fuel cell automotive industry, cost accounting reaching 44%, and the technical threshold in this field is very high, Canada Ballard and Hydrogenics have mastered the most leading Electric heap technology.

In addition, the catalyst, proton exchange membrane, membrane electrode and other electric heap core parts are not fully realized, and the production efficiency is low, and the formation of a stable supply system is still time, and the cost is difficult to drop in the short term.

In 2020, hydrogen energy can be less than 1% in my country's energy system. According to China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, in 2030, China's hydrogen demand will reach 35 million tons, accounting for 5% in the terminal energy system, to 2050 Annual hydrogen will account for 10% in China's terminal energy system.

Toyota is more than once. emphasizes hydrogen energy is the ultimate energy, and in the eyes of Mask, hydrogen power cars is a "stupidity is incredible" idea.

Standing in business competition, Toyota men and Mask's idea goes to two extremes are not surprising. From objective reality, the two perspectives are wrong. Hydrogen energy is an important supplement to new energy big families in the future, but the premise is to complete the effective drop, the current definitiveness and visibility of the industry are still not high.

It is a sentence to invest in investment: hydrogen energy is a wind, but it is still not hype.

Disclaimer

This paper relates to the content of the listed company, based on the personal analysis and judgment of information (including but not limited to interim announcements, regular reports, and official interactive platforms) based on its legal obligation, information or opinion in the text The market value observation is not responsible for any action due to adoption of this paper.

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